TCS048 is now Tropical Storm Twenty-One
As of 12Z TCS048 became tropical storm 21W, upgraded from tropical depression 21W.
At 12Z, according to JTWC it was analyzed near 8.9N 129.6E moving 280 degrees at 15 kts. They analyzed it’s strength at 35 kts with gusts to 45.
The system is still a bit sheared, as shown in the IR image and shear analysis shown below:
The shear is more intense to the south and west of the storm but the convection has gotten a bit more organized. A previous quikscatt analysis shows a closed circulation, but it is only hinted at with surface and ship obs at this time. The AMV/IR and divergence animation shown below shows some weak but widespread divergence over the deepest convection:
An anticyclonic outflow hasn’t developed as of yet, although there are some hints of poleward outflow to its west.
The models are reasonably similar in their track for 21W, at least for the short term. They all bring it to the northwest up and across the Philippines through about 12Z on the 29th, steered by a subtropic ridge to its east. As this ridge weakens, the storm is expected to take a slightly more northerly/northeasterly turn. The models seem to weaken the storm as it crosses land and then re-intensify after it goes through the South China Sea.
Models: ECWMF, Met Office, GFS, NOGAPS
