Jangmi Strengthens: 12Z, September 26th, 2008

As of 12Z, JTWC has analyzed Jangmi at 17.7N 127.9E.

It is moving  310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS with an intensity of 095 kts and gusts of 115 kts.

The satcon image below shows Jangmi’s steady intensification:

The animated IR image with overlayed AMVs and analyzed divergence is shown below:

It shows a very well developed upper-level pattern with strong outflow to the north and south. The analyzed divergence is quite strong. This is a very healthy storm.

The attached MIMIC animation shows a very complex and changing eyewall structure:

The 200 hPa streamlines shown below shows the general synoptic set up dominating Jangmi:

Jangmi’s outflow is enhanced by the upper-level low to its east along with the anticyclone above it. The intensity forecast has increased since yesterday: it’s forecast to intensify to 120 kts by 00Z on the 28th and then weaken quickly after that, mostly likely due to Taiwanese interaction.

The consensus track from yesterday, put Jangmi by 12Z at 16.3N 129.1E, a bit to the south and east of it’s current position (17.7N 127.9E). It’s steering is predominantly driven by a subtropical ridge to it’s north, particularly as the upper level trough from the westerlies moves eastward. As this ridge builds, Jangmi is expected to have a more westerly track.

By 00Z on the 29th, ECMWF and NOGAPS bring Janmi directly over Taiwan. The Met Office model is a bit more progressive, moving Jangmi across Taiwan about 12 hours earlier. It is no longer south of the other models as it was previously. The GFS is similar to the Met Office, although it slows Jangmi down a bit after the Taiwanese landfall. None of the models are showing signs of recurvature.

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