Typhoon Jangmi: 12Z September 25th 2008
As of 06Z on the 25th, Jangmi was upgraded to a Typhoon.
JTWC’s 12Z analysis:Position: near 14.5N 131.4E
Movement: 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
Intensity: max sustained winds - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
The 11:30 Z ADT has analyzed its intensity at 57 knots with its CDO. The most recent satcon analysis was at 20Z on the 24th, with an intensity of 56 knots.
Attached below is an animated IR image with upper-level AMVs and analyzed divergence:
It’s got fairly healthy divergence aloft and reasonable outflow to its northeast and southwest. Outflow is somewhat restricted to the north. There are hints of dry air to the north and northeast, possible due to an upper-level low.
The MIMIC animation below shows the development of an eye over most of Jangmi’s eastern side:
The 12Z AMSU-B image, shown here (courtesy of NRL) does imply a fully closed eye:
The quikscatt 09Z analysis has a fully developed low level circulation around Jangmi. It is a healthy storm. It’s under reasonably low shear (about 10kts) but still surrounded by high shear to the east and south.
And what’s in it’s future:
JTWC has it intensifying to 115 kts by 12Z on the 27th and maintaining that intensity through the 28th. As it approaches Taiwan it is forecasted to weaken.
Its track is being influenced by the subtropical ridge to its west and north, driving Jangmi to the west more than previously forecasted. The T-PARC consensus forecast had predicted it to be at: 15.3N 132.2E. It’s current position is to the south and west of this forecast.
The models are again reasonably consistent with each other bringing Jangmi in some form across Taiwan, but their timing and placement are slightly different. The ECMWF and NOGAPS have it striking Taiwan at about 12Z on the 28th. The Met Office model by that time has it south of Taiwan, but west of the other models. The GFS is a bit to the east of other models, but closer in latitude ot the EC and NOGAPS. They seem to be moving a bit more slowly, in general, today than previous model runs, but not by much.
