TCS043
Attached is an IR animation for TCS043:
Taking a look at a two day animation (focus on TCS043 at about 15N 142E) you can see dirunal variation, as TCS043 strengthens around 12Z (22:00 Guam time) and weakens around 00Z (10 am Guam time). The short animation above is from 10Z - 15Z: near the convective maximum.
At this point, however, shear is the primary factor influencing TCS043:
The above plots show the shear (top) and divergence (bottom) over TCS043. The shear is consitently pushing the convection south. You can see this with the IR images, and with the location of maximum divergence. It’s unlikely to develop while under such strong shear.
The models are in two camps with this invest. The NOGAPS and GFS model have TCS043 developing and then recurving around (NOGAPS) and past (GFS) 140 E longitude. The 12Z ECWMF still has TCS043 moving west and interacting with the monsoon near the Philippians. Unlike the previous run, this run suggest hints of recurvature towards the end of the forecast period. The Met Office model, always the most reluctant developer, brings TCS043 westward and has a weaker interaction with that Phillipean convection.
The key to the recurve/no recurve difference seems to stem from a trough coming off of the China coast from the 20th-21st. The models with a deeper trough seem to be recurving the storm. The models without it seem to allow TCS043 to progress westward. We’ll have to keep an eye on this track difference in future runs.
Tags: divergence, TCS043, Track