Typhoon Nuri: Present and Future
As of 12z on the 19th of August, Nuri currently has 95 kt sustained winds centered at 18.2 N, 124.4 E.
It’s a fairly sheared system, as you can see from this enhanced IR image with associated AMVs:
Enhanced IR image and associated upper level AMVs for Tyhpoon Nuri. As of 12z Nuri has sustained winds of 95 kts
The forecasted track is shown here:
Enhanced IR image and forecast track for Tyhpoon Nuri.
An 8z AMSU pass shows a reasonable warm core aloft, and gives an intensity of 93kts. The ADTs 14z analysis gives an intensity of 61 kts, while the CIMSS SATCON gives an intensity of 92kts.
The question of this track with regards recurvature. At this time it looks like Nuri will continue it’s slight northwesterly track as it is driven by a strong ridge to its northeast. If this happens, it’s unlikely that any more aircraft flights will be possible as part of TPARC. Attention will probably turn to TCS 17.
JTWC has Nuri intensifying to 105 kts by 12z on the 21st, before making landfall in China at about 12z on the 22nd. The OHC maps have some higher energetic waters around the Philipino coast, perhaps explaning some of their reasoning for intensification despite the fairly high shear environment.
Tags: Add new tag, Forecast, Nuri