WXTLIST WMO=ABIO10 ABIO10 PGTW 241800 2009328 1648 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/241800Z-251800ZNOV2009// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240754ZNOV2009// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 91.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 92.4E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST OF NORTHERN TIP OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 24/1354Z TRMM 37V MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK BANDING WITH SLIGHT CURVATURE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN AN UNFAVORABLE REGION FOR DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH DIFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW. CIMSS LOW LEVEL VORTICITY INDICATES A WEAK ELONGATED VORTICITY PATTERN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 240600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 51.9E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 240900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. WXTLIST: done