WTIO30 FMEE 271212                                              2009086 1242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 14/11/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11  (EX-IZILDA)
2.A POSITION 2009/03/27 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1S / 41.1E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
 EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.0/2.0 /W  1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
 RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT   NE:       SE: 120   SO:       NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/03/28 00 UTC: 22.6S/39.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
24H: 2009/03/28 12 UTC: 22.2S/38.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
36H: 2009/03/29 00 UTC: 21.8S/36.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
48H: 2009/03/29 12 UTC: 21.4S/35.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2009/03/30 00 UTC: 20.8S/34.3E DISSIPATED.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.0 CI=2.0
RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF EX-IZILDA, LOCATED AROUND 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF
EUROPA, HAS TRACKED WESTNORTHWESTWARDS (290O) OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
AT
ABOUT 7 KT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DURABLY UNFAVORABLE WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS (QUITE STRONG NORTHNORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR)
AND NO
 RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE RESIDUAL LOW MAKE LANDFALL
OVER
 THE MOZAMBICAN COAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN VILANCULOS
AND
BEIRA.
FORCAST TRACK IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS
. STEERED BY THE LOW LEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL, SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP ON ITS  WESTNORTHWESTWARDS TO NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK
(AVERAGE
DIRECTION: 290O)=
wxtlist.k: done