Convective Initiation Research

GOES-12 Convective Storm Monitoring and Nowcasting Products

Geostationary satellites provide observations of developing thunderstorms at high temporal and spatial resolution.  Convective storm initiation, the process where a cumulus cloud evolves from an immature "fair weather" state to a mature cumulonimbus, is apparent in satellite imagery before it can be observed by operational weather radar.  Numerical weather prediction models often have difficulty in accurately forecasting the timing and location of convective initiation.  Thus, geostationary satellite imagery is an essential dataset for nowcasting the timing and location of future thunderstorm development.

This project seeks to develop real-time automated products that can aid in thunderstorm monitoring and nowcasting.  30-minutte sequences of GOES-12 visible and multi-spectral IR imagery are used to develop products that can objectively identify convectively-induced cloud locations, extract mesoscale cloud motions, and provide nowcasts for cumulus clouds that are likely to evolve into thunderstorms.  These products are currently being evaluated by the National Weather Service forecast office in Huntsville, AL, NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Applications Branch (SAB), and the FAA-supported Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) Convective Weather PDT.

This research is currently supported by the NASA Advanced Satellite Aviation weather Products (ASAP) initiative.