This map shows the skill of ProbSevere to initial storm report (hail, wind, or tornado) as a function of NWS Warning Forecast Office (WFO) County Warning Area (CWA) and ProbSevere probability threshold. To increase sample size, each WFO has also included the storms from its neighboring offices, producing a more regional score. You can see which offices were included by hovering over an office. NWS stats for initial reports were aggregated as well. Please note that NWS statistics are unofficial. Fifty-eight days were manually scored from May, June, and July of 2014, and May and June of 2016. Gray-shaded offices indicate an insufficient severe storm sample size (note that this is not the number of reports that occurred in an office). We will try to update this page as more validation is performed.

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