WTIO31 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 84.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 84.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 19.2N 85.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 21.0N 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.8N 87.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.7N 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 26.5N 93.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 84.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM EAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS NOW A 16 NM WIDE ROUND, SYMMETRICAL EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION, WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. BASED ON THE EYE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. ADDITIONALLY, THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY AN EYE FEATURE IN A 021137Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KTS IS BETWEEN DVORAK VALUES OF T6.5-7.0 (127-140 KTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, REFLECTING THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSIFICATION IS SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 01B IS TRACKING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND THE STR AXIS, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNTIL DISSIPATING BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK. BASED ON THE TIGHT CLUSTER IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//