WTPS31 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 22.4S 173.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 173.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 24.2S 172.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 25.8S 172.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 27.4S 171.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 29.4S 170.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 34.8S 164.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 22.9S 173.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (IAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS SUSTAINED ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AS WELL AS MAINTAINED A 19-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND LINES UP WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE ON AN 111857Z SSMI-S PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HAS CONTINUED TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY DESPITE DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. TC IAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS ALONG THE POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48 AND COMPLETE THE ETT BY TAU 72 AS A COLD CORE LOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z. // NNNN