Under Development
The following derived products result from further calculations on the basic
precipitable water fields above:
One-Day Archive
A three-day archive of four-panel loops is also available.
5 Day Loops Updated Hourly
Upper left panel is Mid Level Theta-E, lower left is Low Level Theta-E, right is Theta-E Difference (Mid-Low)
Theta-E Analysis loop. Includes most recent 9 Hr nearcast at end.
Theta-E 03 HR Nearcast loop.
Theta-E 06 HR Nearcast loop.
Theta-E 09 HR Nearcast loop.
Model Comparisons (of Latest Nearcast cycle)
Comparisons and Tests
These computer forecasts are
EXPERIMENTAL
and are used by atmospheric scientists
to assess the value of satellite observations in numerical weather prediction.
Although the accuracy of these products is consistently good, forecast errors can
occur due to non-receipt of data, observation errors, and computer problems. The
forecasts are fully automated and are not always closely monitored by CIMSS
scientists. The risk of using the CCDNM to plan weather-sensitive activities falls
on the user. Feedback will help us improve deficiencies in the CCDNM. Please
forward any comments to the CRASmaster using the
contact form.
About these Forecasts
Information from the GOES-13 sounder water vapor channels help to define the
regions most susceptible to convection on that day. This technique initializes a
trajectory model with Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) winds and precipitable water at
different levels as retrieved from the GOES-13 sounder. The retrieval uses the
three water vapor channels: channels 10 (7.4 microns), 11 (7.0 microns), and
12 (6.5 microns). The shorter wavelength energy typically is emitted from higher
in the atmosphere. GOES sounder weighting functions from channel 10 typically peak
around 600 or 700 mb; weighting functions from channel 12 peak closer to 400 mb.
The exact level is, of course, a function of the air mass and the satellite viewing
angle. These three channels can help to define the distribution of water vapor in
the atmosphere at different levels: the output of the retrieval that combines
the brightness temperatures and initial guess soundings is precipitable water (mm)
at different levels. Such a multi-layer description of the atmospheric water vapor
is not possible with the single water vapor channel on the GOES imager; the
multiple channels of the GOES sounder are required.
This model can predict areas of destabilization (convective potential) if "low"
level moisture moves underneath "upper" level drying. The fields are presented as
moisture change with height. If a region shows the moisture change with height
increasing with time, then that region is becoming more convectively unstable.
The CIMSS Satellite Blog offers additional information about these forecasts and
an example of their intended use in the
"Short-term
predictions of convective development" post. Also, see:
Nowcasting Analysis Project using the GOES sounder
Background and Training
Support for the National Weather Service
Convective Development Nearcasting Model in D-2D
Numerical Weather Prediction Research at CIMSS
Real-time CIMSS Regional Assimilation System (CRAS)
61 km CRAS Hurricane Track Prediction Project
60-hour Simulation of the Edmund Fitzgerald Storm
Numerical Weather Prediction Concepts
Land Surface Energy/Water Budget Studies
