This is an experimental forecast of the rapid intensification (RI) of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). These forecasts do not represent the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center.
This research looks to employ an objective satellite-based tropical overshooting top detection algorithm
to average the number of overshooting tops experienced by a TC and predicts RI. A forecast of RI to begin in the subsequent 24 hours is made when:
Forecasts are not made when:
The TC is at Category 4 strength or greater.
The TC is classified as subtropical or extratropical.
The spread of the TOT angles, calculated from due north, has a standard deviation ≤ 36°.
The TC is within 12 hours of landfall and 24 hours after exiting land.
- 25-knot RI: A 3-hour average of at least 2.0 TOTs/scan with a brightness temperature ≤ 215 K within 300 km of the TC center is exceeded.
- 30 knot RI: Same as 25-kt RI.
- 35 knot RI: Same as 25-kt RI.
Sample cases:     Rina (2011)     Sandy (2012)
Sample from 0015 UTC on 2 September 2012.
Back to the main GOES-R TOT page
~~~~ RI Statistics from 2006, 2007 ~~~~
| RI threshold
||Probabilty of Detection
||False Alarm Ratio
||Probabilty of False Detection
||Peirce Skill Score
DISCLAIMER: THESE PRODUCTS ARE GENERATED ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS. ACCURACY AND TIMELINESS ARE NOT GUARANTEED.