000 FXUS63 KICT 280819 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 319 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE MESOSCALE FEATURES MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TODAY-TONIGHT: LATEST LOOK AT THE MODIS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A SUMMERTIME PATTERN RATHER THAN SPRING WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE INDUCED VORT LOBES (MCV'S) MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO ONE OF THESE MCV'S. THIS FEATURE SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND TAKE MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT. HOWEVER...BEHIND IT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WHICH IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON THE 700MB PROFILERS. THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS MECHANISM FOR MORE LIFT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE THE I-35/135 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...ONE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WEST OF THIS AREA DUE TO SMALL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION VALUES. THE LOWER CEILINGS/DRIZZLE/FOG WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE NEXT MCV OF INTEREST LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS WHICH COULD BE OUR WEATHER MAKER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AGAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH...SO I WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. ALTHOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET IN THOSE AREAS TODAY. TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD IS STILL PRETTY FUZZY ESPECIALLY WHEN THE MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE FEATURES MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...WE ARE GOING TO PLAY THINGS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE HOUSE FOR POPS ON TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE TENDING TO SLOW DOWN THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION...BUT WE ARE TENDING GO ALONG WITH THE GFS FOR NOW SINCE IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT LATELY. AS A RESULT...WE ARE GOING WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR AND MARGINAL MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES. WE STILL COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHWEST PER SWODY2. ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: WEDNESDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DREARY AND RAINY DAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRUDGES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE IN NORTHERN KANSAS AS A WAVE TRANSVERSES THROUGH THERE...BUT WITH DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SUCH A MOIST AIR MASS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO SET IT OFF. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE ECMWF/UKMET IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO PUSH THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS PICTURE BUT THE GFS IS TENDING TO HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BACK. WE HAVE ELECTED TO INTRODUCE POPS ON THURSDAY SINCE THE MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH MAY TRIGGER DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. COX && .AVIATION UPDATE... 06Z TAFS FOR (RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY HUT/ICT/CNU TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT IFR CIGS TO AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING TOWARDS EARLY MORNING. IFR/LIFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME. JAKUB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 75 65 79 63 / 30 20 40 60 HUTCHINSON 77 64 78 63 / 20 20 40 60 NEWTON 75 64 79 63 / 30 20 40 60 ELDORADO 75 64 79 64 / 50 30 40 60 WINFIELD-KWLD 75 65 79 64 / 50 30 40 60 RUSSELL 80 61 77 58 / 10 20 50 70 GREAT BEND 80 62 78 59 / 10 20 50 70 SALINA 79 64 78 61 / 20 20 40 70 MCPHERSON 77 64 78 62 / 20 20 40 60 COFFEYVILLE 74 64 79 65 / 70 30 40 40 CHANUTE 74 64 79 65 / 70 30 40 40 IOLA 74 64 79 65 / 70 30 40 40 PARSONS-KPPF 74 64 79 65 / 70 30 40 40 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ----------------------------------------------------------------------
