000
FXUS63 KMPX 291924
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
224 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING NEXT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING...AND BE A
BIT BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS LACKING DURING THIS
PERIOD...PERHAPS SOME DISSIPATING CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE RIDGE
ALOFT. WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS..SHOULD SEE
DOWNSLOPE EFFECT OVER SOUTHWEST MN...SO TEMPERATURES IN AROUND 70F
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIXED DOWN MAV GUIDANCE FROM 900MB
AND YIELDED MID-UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF MN PORTION OF CWA. COULD BE
A TAD COOLER OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...BECAUSE OF PROXIMITY OF HIGH.

THEN NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...LITTLE CLOUD WILL BE ASSOCIATED...AS INDICATED BY
MODEL BUFKIT TIME/HGT OVERVIEWS AND CRAS IR SATELLITE FCST. SOME
CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH CURRENT STRONG LOOKING SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH MT/ID/WY REGION. MODELS DIVE THIS FEATURE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO LIMIT THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OVER THE CWA. FRONT SHOULD
EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
SOME MARGINAL COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT. AGREE WITH MAV GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.

DRY AND MILD START TO WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO SMALL CH ACNE SHRA
DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOLLOWS THE
UPPER FLOW INTO CENTRAL MN. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED ON
MODELS AND WEAK FORCING/LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME SCT SHRA. THIS WAS ALREADY INTRODUCED ON THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...AND LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. THIS SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THEN NEXT TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS TH WEST
AND BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT
LIFTS/MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW
AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE. GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS DEEPER/SLOWER
SOLUTION. APPEARS 12Z ECMWF IS TRENDING THAT WAS AS WELL. WILL
MENTION MODERATE CHC POPS AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH INTO WED FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR
FLEETING CIRRUS CLOUDS TODAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST/VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND IS
REPLACED BY AN ADVANCING DAKOTAS TROUGH. BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE...LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN AT SEVERAL SITES /KSTC-
KRWF-KMSP-KRNH/ OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 1KM WINDS PROGGED
AROUND 35 KNOTS. LLWS CONCERNS WILL ABATE AFTER DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A FOCUS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS BREEZY CONDITIONS ENSUE AS A RESULT OF THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/LS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMPX 010845
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWING WIDESPREAD CIRRUS OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING.
THIS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING. DOESNT APPEAR TO BE TOO OPAQUE/THICK AT THIS TIME. WEAK
SFC RIDGING INTO THE AREA AS WELL...WITH EASTERLY SFC FLOW
ANTICIPATED TODAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY.  

LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD/ALONG DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MN. MODELS TREND INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z CRAS 11 MICRON FORECAST
PRODUCT ALSO INDICATED STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...IN MOST
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.  SOME FORCING
INDICATED AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. 00Z NAM WAS SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER EC MN AND WC WI LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
LAYERED THETA-E ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL WAA ALSO NOTED. PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD LOW POPS INTO EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE 00Z 4KM NMM WRF AND THE 00Z CRAS WERE INDICATING
SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND FOR NOW.

SFC WARM FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD WARMING ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN...WITH SOME 70S LIKELY. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE
THICKER CIRRUS THAT MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY.
CONTINUED THE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONTINUED TO MOVE A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...MUCH OF TUESDAY WOULD BE
DRY. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS SUPPOSE TO THE AFFECT THE AREA WED-FRIDAY.
COLDER AIR DOES WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
SO THE RAIN SHOWER TO SNOW SHOWER TREND STILL LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS AT THE TAF
SITES WILL BECOME E TO SE NEAR 10 KNOTS BY 15Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. VFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS SET OF TAFS
WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING AT THE MN TAF SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AND 45 TO 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS SPREAD NORTH
FROM IA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/JPR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMPX 260859
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TEMPERATURE TRENDS. COOL START AGAIN
THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WAA TODAY...BUT SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE...AS NEXT WAVE REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE OF A RESPONSE IN TEMPERATURE
TREND DURING THE DAY. NOT SURE WELL MAKE 40 IN THE EAST
THOUGH...WITH LITTLE MIXING EXPECTED AGAIN.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT. OUT OF 3 DETERMINISTIC MODELS...
00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST WITH WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IT
HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND. THE 00Z NAM IS A LITTLE
WEAKER WITH THE WAVE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN
WITH THIS TREND AS WELL. THEN...03Z SREF MEAN CONTINUES TO SHOW 
A STRONG WAVE MOVING THROUGH. OVERALL...GOING FORECAST NOT
BAD...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE OVERALL POP/WEATHER TRENDS. STILL
LOOKS LINE THE BEST SHOT OF MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT PV
ANOMALY MOVING INTO CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. 285K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE SATURATES MUCH OF NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
START POPS OUT IN THE MORNING. A 15Z START TIME MAY BE TOO SLOW
HOWEVER...DEPENDING HOW STRONG/QUICKLY PV MAX MOVES ACROSS AND HOW
FAST COLUMN SATURATES. 03Z SREF POPS ACTUALLY DROP A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE METRO THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. 00Z
CRAS FORECAST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS ALSO SHOWING STRONG DRYING
BEHIND THE WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WC WI. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
REGION AFFECTED BY THE TROUGH. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION GRID SHOWING
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY...AND THIS
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS AS WELL. MAYBE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS GFS.

SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE
POPS GOING EASTERN AREAS MAINLY. WILL LINGER FLURRIES/CLOUDS INTO
FRIDAY OVER THE EAST AS WELL. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PCPN. MODELS TREND COOLER/NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH EMBEDDED WAVES TOUGH TO TIME. WILL LEAVE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW.   

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

WK SFC TROF ARND BDE TO MML WL CONT TO MV EWRD TO ARND MSP BY 12Z 
THEN ACRS WI TAF SITES IN MRNG.  LGT WNDS AND CLR SKIES WL BRNG A 
THREAT OF SM FOG LT TNT ARND AXN/STC/RWF NR BAGGY LOW PRES WHERE 
TEMP/DWPT SPRDS ARD GETTING NARROW. HYDROLAPSE FM NAM BUFIT ALSO 
SHOWING INCRS WITH HGT IN THOSE AREAS OVRNITE.  HI PRES BLDG INTO 
AREA DRNG DAY ON WED. SHUD SEE SM INCRS IN HIGH CLDS MAINLY AXN/STC 
BY 00Z AHEAD OF TROF OF LOW PRES DROPPING ACRS PRAIRIE PROVINCES.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/TRH