000
FXUS63 KMKX 301935
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING UPPER LOW AND STRONGER
UPPER LOW FOR NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM FIRST LOOK AT CRAS MODEL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS VERY
IMPRESSIVE.  SO MUCH MODEL INFORMATION IS BEING PRESENTED IN ONE
IMAGE THAT CAN BE EASILY DIGESTED. ESPECIALLY WITH SAY 700MB NAM
HEIGHT OVERLAYED.   CLOUD COVER AND CLOUD HEIGHTS...EASILY
IDENTIFIED STRATOCUMULUS SHIELDS.  ALSO EASY TO CONVERT TO
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF SYSTEM TYPE.  DATA GOES OUT EVERY 3 HOURS TO
36 HOURS.  WOULD PREFER EVERY 6 HRS TO 60 OR 72 HOURS WITH AVAILABLE
BANDWIDTH.

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS EAST FLOW AND MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...AND DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST.  THINK MOST OF THE DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS...WITH A TENDENCY FOR PATCHY FOG AND SOME STRATUS AGAIN IN
THE EAST WITH MORE OF A GRADIENT.  MODIS 1 KM IMAGERY LAST NIGHT
SHOWERED THE DENSE FOG IN LONE ROCK AND BOSCOBEL WAS CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY...IMPORTANT INFORMATION.  THE LOCAL
RIVER VALLEY DENSE FOG IS NOT SEEN IN THE NORMAL 2 KM GOES.

UPPER TROF AXIS LOCATED FROM E IL TO S TIP OF LAKE MI. PREVIOUS
SHOWERS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHED INLAND INTO NORTHERN IL.  NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOW A LOW LEVEL CAP AND LESS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...SO WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS OUR OF THE FORECAST. THEREFORE
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER FAR SE/SC WI SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING.  MAY
HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAIN THURSDAY.

WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW TO SOUTHERN WI WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS IS CONSISTENT IN BRINING STRONG UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.  TROF TO BECOME CLOSED AND CUT OFF...THEN IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT OVER WI LATER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COOL AND
SHOWERY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS
OVER MOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 311935
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
235 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SITUATED OVER INDIANA AT THIS TIME...WITH
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LARGE CLOUD SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW OVER INDIANA...WITH EDGE CLIPPING
SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY SINKING TO THE 
SOUTHEAST...AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z
SATURDAY. WITH THIS PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...FEEL THAT A
MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE CLOUDS...THOUGH...MAY
STRAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. CRAS
IMAGERY FROM SSEC APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHIELD AT 18Z
THURSDAY. SO...WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH
MAYBE LESS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

COOL AIRMASS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BRING IN AIRMASS
FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WERE LOWS THIS MORNING
WERE IN LOWER TO MID 50S. USED BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR NEAR TERM
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR MAV MOS DEW POINTS.

12Z GFS RUN APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE APPROACHING CUTOFF
UPPER LOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. IT USUALLY
HAS A GOOD AND CONSISTENT DEPICTION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. ALSO
LIKE THE DRIER LOOK FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO THE 
NAM-WRF...WITH THE DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. IT APPEARS THAT A
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY REMNANTS OF ERNESTO
WILL STAY OFF TO THE EAST...AND WILL NOT BE INGESTED BY THIS UPPER
LOW.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DRIER GFS
LOOK...WILL REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE EAST DRY. WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR SUNDAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUING THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE
CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY. IT THEN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND
A QUICKER PROPAGATION EASTWARD RESULTS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS QUICKER WITH THIS EVOLUTION TO AN OPEN WAVE THAN THE GFS.

THUS...A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THIS REGIME.
KEPT POPS IN THIS PERIOD MAINLY THE SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 012009
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 PM CDT FRI SEP 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON BEGINNING PRECIP CHANCES AS UPPER 
LOW APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM...CLOUDS AND PCPN OVER LOWER MI MOVING WESTWARD 
WITH SHRT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING AROUND NRN PERIPHERY OF UPR LOW THAT 
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS PLACES IN W CNTRL IN. LGT SPRIKLES/VIRGA FROM 
SIMILAR WAVE THIS MORNING EVAPORATED AS THEY RAN INTO DRIER AIR IN 
THE SFC TO 850 MB LAYER OVER SRN WI. WHILE BOTH NAM WRF AND GFS 
MODELS BRUSH SRN WI WITH WEAK OMEGA AND SLIGHTLY HIER MID LAYER RH 
THIS EVENING...NEITHER ARE PRODUCING ANY PCPN...PROBABLY AIDED BY 
SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM EARLIER WAVE. RUC PRODUCES A POCKET OF .02 TO 
.03 INCH IN N CNTRL IL IN THE HIER DEW POINT AIR SOUTH OF A PIA TO 
CHI LINE.

CIMSS CRAS MODEL...THAT DID CAPTURE SOME OF THE LIGHT PCPN/VIGA THIS 
MORNING...SHOWS AFTERNOON PCPCN OVER LWR MI DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES 
WEST. HAVE NO PCPN FOR THIS EVENING...BUT WITH SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR 
CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-850 AND 850-700 MB LAYERS AND PERSISTENT SFC 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER ERN CWA...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON 
RGNL RADAR COMPOSITE TO ADD PCPN BEFORE ISSUANCE IF THERE ARE 
INDICATIONS OF PCPN HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES LAKE.

ATTENTION TURNS TO TROF CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE NRN PLAINS THAT 
ALL MODELS CUT OFF OVER THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. WHILE MODELS ARE IN 
FAIR AGREEMENT TNT WITH 500 MB FEATURES...WILL FOLLOW THE PREFERRED 
GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES WHICH DO NOT RETROGRADE THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THE 
REMAINS OF ERNESTO AS FAR WEST AS THE NAM/WRF SAT NGT/SUN...WHICH IS 
UNREALISITICALLY TRYING TO MERGE THE TWO 500 MB LOWS OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES RGN.

THUS WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY WITH SHRT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE...AND 
FOLLOWED WARMER MAV MOS TEMPS WITH EXPECTED THINNER SKY COVER. 

HAVE HELD OFF PCPN WITH PLAINS UPR LO UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING IN WRN 
CWA AND SUN AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS GFS DOESNT ROTATE LEAD SHRT 
WAVE INTO THE WEST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. FCST SNDGS SHOW SKINNY CAPE 
OF AROUND 400-500 J/KG BETWEEN 900MB AND 300 MB...AND SFC LI/S 
BETWEEN -1 AND -2 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF 
ISOLATED THUNDER. 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF UPR 
LOW...BRINGING IT TO ERN/NE IA BY 00Z TUE...THEN WRN/CNTRL IL TUE 
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY OPENING UP LOW AND PUSHING IT EWD TO WRN PA 
BY WED EVENING. 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP EWD MOTION...AND 
TRACKS 500 LOW ACROSS NRN IL MON NGT BEFORE RAPIDLY OPENING UP LO 
WITH TROF AXIS REACHING WRN PA 12 HOURS SOONER THAN PREV RUN. WILL 
STAY WITH THE SLOWER SLOUTION AND KEEP SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED 
THUNDER DURING THE DAY...SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WED. NO ALL DAY 
RAINS...BUT PDS OF SHRA/TSTMS AS SHRT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND 
LOW.       

WILL BRING PCPN TO AN END WED EXCEPT IN THE SE...BUT EXPECT 
DIFFICULTY CLEARING SKIES WITH WEAK SFC HI BUILDING IN AND NW FLOW 
SHRT WAVES DROPPING THRU RGN THUR AND FRI. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO 
WATCH FOR ANY SLOWING TREND TO UPR LO AND/OR SHRT WVS IN NW FLOW 
BRINGING PCPN TO RGN THE END OF THE WEEK. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

REM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 191937 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CDT THU OCT 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON HOW QUICK STRATUS WILL ERODE
TONIGHT...THEN ON MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH BACK EDGE
ROUGHLY ALONG SURFACE RIDGE.  RIDGE AXIS BISECTS OUR FORECAST AREA
BY MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF HEATING THE SLOW EROSION MAY SLOW
EVEN MORE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL CLEARING AROUND 10Z AT
MADISON...AND LATE MORNING AT MKE.  PREFER THE SLOWER CLEARING ON
NAM VS A QUICK CLEARING ON GFS.

CRAS MODEL IR IMAGERY IS A BIT FAST ON CIRRUS FROM SHORTWAVE OVER E
DAKOTAS/W MN...AND OBSCURES THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST...BUT IT APPEARS
CRAS KEEPS LOW DECK IN AND ERODED CLOUDS A BIT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
CHANGED DEFAULT IR ENHCNACMENT TO THE GOOD OLD CC CURVE...WHICH
SHOWED LOW CLOUD TRENDS WELL ON CRAS OUTPUT.

ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...ALONG WITH SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS RISE
TO AROUND 50F IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS ON ON HOW QUICK CYCLOGENISIS OCCURS
SATURDAY.  12Z RUNS OF THE WRF AND GFS STILL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE OF UPPER TROF AND
CORRESPONDING STRENGTH/TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. THE WRF SHOWS A MORE
DISTINCT S/W EJECTING THROUGH MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
DEEPER AND MORE COMPACT SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN IL INTO SE WI
AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. ON THE OTHER HAND...12Z GFS SHOWING A
RATHER FLAT 500MB PATTERN (WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS)
AND CONSEQUENTLY A MUCH WEAKER SFC LOW (ACTUALLY JUST AN INVERTED
TROUGH).  THE ECMWF ALSO ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEAKER GFS
SOLUTION.  WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS.  THE CRAS MODEL
APPEARS CLOSER TO THE NAM.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE PREDICATED ON OVERALL STRENGTH OF SYSTEM
AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...BUT ALL SOLUTIONS STILL SHOWING
RELATIVELY COLD AIRMASS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WI IN WAKE OF LOW.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUN/MON AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO -6C TO -8C.  GFS ALSO SHOWS EXTENSIVE
STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WITH UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW.

DRY CONDITION THEN EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
APPROACHES.  WILL FOLLOW CLIMATOLOGY AND BE SLOW IN BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 221954 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FOR
MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS CLOUD COVER.  PATCHES OF SOLID
CLOUDS BUT MAINLY CELLULAR TYPE ELSEWHERE.  AS RESULT THINK MANY
AREAS WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME.  MAIN STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL COME IN
EARLY THIS MORNING.  AS RESULT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP...ESPECIALLY
IN SHELTERED AREAS. LOCAL 4 KM WRF_ARW HAS SOMEWHAT HIGHER RH AROUND
850 MB THAN NEW NAM AND RUC.

ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROF AXIS SWEEPS SOUTH IT INCREASES LOW/MID LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...ALONG WITH RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 650
MB...WHICH HAS MORE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WITH
A HUNDREDTH OR SO OF QPF. TROF AXIS DOES NOT REACH FAR SOUTHEAST
UNTIL EVENING. LOCAL 4 KM WRF_ARW SHOWS ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNTIL TROF AXIS DEVELOPS QPF OF AROUND 0.05 IN BROKEN BAND OF
CONVECTION. THE EXPLICIT CONVECTION IN THE MODEL DID A VERY GOOD JOB
AGAIN ON EXITING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING.

4 KM IR FROM 00Z CRAS MODEL HAS DONE A REASONABLY GOOD JOB IN
BREAKING UP THE STRATOCUMULS SHIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SHOWS THE ADVANCING THICK STRATOCUMULS DECK LATER TONIGHT.  HOWEVER
IT MAY BE A BIT FAST.

DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
APPROACHES.  STILL PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER 00Z ECMWF OVER THE NEW
12Z GFS IN DEVELOPING UPPER LOW INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT THEY ARE
NOW AT LEAST SIMILAR. HAVE REFLECTED THINKING MODELS MAY STILL BE A
LITTLE FAST...AND CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 231934
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
235 PM CDT MON OCT 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH TWO
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MOIST LOW/MID LEVELS...ALONG WITH RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 650
MB...RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS. TROF
AXIS DOES NOT REACH FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL LATE EVENING.
LOCAL 4 KM WRF_ARW SHOWS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE ENDING.

4 KM IR FROM 00Z CRAS MODEL HAS DONE A REASONABLY GOOD JOB IN
PICKING UP THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...BUT MAY BE JUST A BIT FAST.

NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN TO BREAKUP THE STRATOCUMULS DECK. NAM
AND LOCAL WRF_ARW INDICATES ENOUGH DRYING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO BRING PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRAS MODEL APPEARS TOO FAST SCATTERED OUT LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA TO WEAKEN AS IT MERGES INTO CONFLUENT
UPPER JET ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.  SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SINCE PRECURSOR JET MAX WITH THIS
TROF IS STILL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC...TIMING AND TRACK STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN.  12Z GFS AROUND 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUN.  THINK
THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS WITH SLOWER 00Z ECMWF.  LATEST
12Z ECMWF JUST A LITTLE SLOWER YET...WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.
ALL MODELS STILL INDICATE CYCLOGENISIS WITH STRONG LOW AFFECTING
UPPER MIDWEST. WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION CHANGES LONGER AND DROP MAX
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 241914
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
215 PM CDT TUE OCT 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WEAK
SHORTWAVE EXITING MINNESOTA GETTING SHEARED OUT AS IT MERGES INTO
CONFLUENT UPPER JET ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE.  4 KM
IR FROM CRAS MODEL SHOWERS MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTERER OUT BY
06Z.

LOCAL 4 KM WRF_ARW DROPS KEEPS LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 4 OR 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN 12Z GFS MOS.  THIS DESPITE CLEARING MID CLOUDS EARLIER
THAN 12Z NAM. PREFER COLDER GFS WITH SURFACE RIDGE AND CLEARING
SKIES.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SINCE JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROF IS STILL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC...TIMING AND TRACK STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN.  06Z AND 12Z GFS HAVE DONE A MAJOR FLIP...AND ARE NOW
TRACKING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...MORE IN LINE WITH
EARLIER ECMWF. HOWEVER 00Z AND NEW 12Z ECMWF AREA FARTHER NORTH MORE
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS GFS`S JUST SLOWER.  12Z UK MODEL CUTS OFF LOW
AND IS MUCH SLOWER.

ALL MODELS STILL INDICATE CYCLOGENISIS WITH STRONG LOW EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING MIDWEST. WILL BACK OFF POPS A BIT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT HIGHER THAN CURRENT MOS. WILL ALSO LINGER PRECIPITATION
CHANGES LONGER AND DROP MAX TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS GFS MAY FLOP
BACK TO IT ORIGINAL TRACK.  EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS IT WOULD LIKELY BE
A LITTLE SLOWER...WHICH IS ABOUT THE ONLY CONSISTENT THING GOING IN
THE MODELS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 251914
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
215 PM CDT WED OCT 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
UPPER TROUGH NOW OF OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...AS IT MOVES
EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS ON APPROACHING MID DECK AND IT`S
POSSIBLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. NAM IS SLOW TO PUSH MID
CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  THIS DUE TO SPLIT FLOW AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN NORTHWEST FLOW.  4 KM IR FROM
CRAS MODEL HAS THESE CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SOONER.
AT THE PRESENT TIME SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT A QUICKER PUSH.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  NOW THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
WITHIN THE HIGHER DENSITY OFF NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS...THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER IN THE STRUCTURE...EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.

ALL MODELS STILL INDICATE CYCLOGENISIS WITH STRONG LOW EVENTUALLY
MOVING ACROSS THE KENTUCKY AREA.  THIS WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO OUT SOUTH.  NAM MOS IS HIGHER THEN A MAINLY DRY GFS
MOS.  DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THINK AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS IN ORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS WOULD ALSO FIT NICE WITH
COLLABORATION WITH ADJOINING FORECAST OFFICES. LOCAL 4 KM WRF_ARW
BRINGS SOME LIGHT QPF INTO THE S TIER OF COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WILL ALSO LINGER PRECIPITATION CHANGES AND DROP MAX TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACCOUNT FOR DEEPENING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK...BUT A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY.  MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 010236
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
836 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006

.UPDATE...UPON EVALUATION OF CURRENT TRENDS IN REAL WORLD AND QUICK
PEEK AT 00Z NGM/RUC PROGS...HAVE DECIDED THAT NO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED FOR ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNING AND SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS
CWA AT THIS TIME. SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS
REFLECT ESTABLISHMENT OF DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER CWA. HOWEVER
THESE COOL TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE REFLECTED IN COBB NUMBERS FOR
BOTH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH START WITH RELATIVELY HIGH 14-18:1
SNOW RATIOS WITH ONSET OF SNOW...THEN RATIOS TREND TOWARD 10:1 BY
END OF SNOW EVENT. IN ADDITION CRAS IR HAS VERY GOOD INITIAL
DEPICTION OF BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE DEVELOPING OVER KANSAS AND
PROGS SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SIGNATURE OVER WARNING AREA BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z FRIDAY...THE BEST TIME WITH EXPECTED GFS PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS AND
TIMING OF SNOWFALL EVENT LOOK TO BE ON THE MONEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SOME LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
MADE IN UPCOMING ZONES.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ051-WIZ058-
WIZ063-WIZ068.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ052-
WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072.

&&

$$
ZAJDEL

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 081000
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 AM CST MON JAN 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON HANDLING PCPN CHCS WITH CLIPPER
TYPE SYS FOR LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

FOR THIS SYSTEM WE HAVE THE NAM...NGM AND LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWING
THE CLIPPER WILL MEASURE FOR US WHILE THE GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN
ARE SHOWING NO QPF. CERTAINLY NO CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS ON
THIS ONE.

THE UPPER JET AXIS CONTINUES TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ANY
APPRECIABLE DVRG ASSOC WITH THIS AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NRN WEAK VORT MAX COMING ACRS
THE CWA BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z TUE.

00Z NAM SHOWS MAX OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 18Z THEN
NOTHING THEREAFTER WHILE THE GFS JUST INFERS A GLANCING SHOT ARND
18Z AND THEN THAT IS IT. 00Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING DECENT Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PEAKING TODAY ARND
18Z...HOWEVER THIS IS WITHIN A RATHER DRY COLUMN WITH HIGHER COND
PRES DEFICITS.

A LOOK AT THE CRAS DATA SUGGESTS COOLING CLOUD TOPS COMING ACRS
TOWARDS MIDDAY PROBABLY LATCHING ONTO STRONGER WAA TYPE
FORCING...AND THEN IT ALSO SHOWS A PRETTY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION
COMING ACRS THIS EVENING...PROB ASSOC WITH THE VORT MAXIMA THE GFS
AND NAM ARE INDICATING. THIS WOULD ALL TEND TO LEND CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS GOING WITH POPS AT LEAST A SMIDGE HIGHER THAN THE PALTRY
GFS MOS FOR TONIGHT.

6Z NAM COMING IN HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF SYS DOWN UNTIL TNGT.
WILL HAVE JUST A SML CHC IN THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN
AND ONLY GO ABV GFS MOS GUID FOR THE OVERNGT PORTION OF THE FCST.

COLDER H8 TEMPS AND GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER SO TUE WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A WINTER FEEL TO IT. SFC RDG
AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON WED SETTING UP A WRMR RETURN FLOW WITH
MODIFYING H8 TEMP.

NEXT CHC OF PCPN SHAPING UP FOR THU AND BEYOND AS SW UPR FLOW
SETS UP LEADING TO HIGHER POPS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
UPPER FLOW REGIME HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE HIGHER END CHC POPS IN
THE MEX MOS GUIDANCE. POSITION OF TIGHT H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
EVENTUALLY BE KEY ON PCPN TYPE WITHIN CWA BUT FOR NOW GOING
PLACEMENT OF SNOW VS. RAIN/MIXY PCPN NOT TOO BAD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 081951
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
151 PM CST THU FEB 8 2007

.DISCUSSON...FCST CHALLANGES/IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL FOR THIS CYCLE AS
THE GENERALLY QUITE BUT COLD PATTERN CONTINUES.

.SHORT TERM...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING SOME DIURNAL RESISTANCE
TO WARM...DESPITE SUNSHINE. WAA AT H8 WAS NEUTRAL AND GIVEN DEEP
SNOW PACK...IT ISN/T SURPRISING TEMPS DIDN`T WANT TO RECOVER.
DEWPOINTS ALSO VERY LOW...MUCH LOWER THAN GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. GIVEN ALL FACTORS...LOOKS LIKE PERSISTENCE
A PRETTY GOOD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. DROPPED IN OBSERVED MIN GRID
FROM THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT/S LOW AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEEKS.
THIS IS COLDER THAN AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT FITS PROG
SOUNDINGS A LITTLE BETTER.

.LONG TERM...FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC TROF
HOLDS TO OUR EAST AND RIDGE DOMINATES FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. GUIDANCE STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE COLD TEMPS.
MAV MOS THE COLDEST OF THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE AVAILABLE AND HAVE
GONE CLOSE TO THIS OR A NOTCH COLDER.

H5 S/W HITTING THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS
IMPRESSIVE ON THE WV IMAGERY. I LIKE THE WAY THE GFS HANDLES THIS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...H7-H3 LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS THAT CLIPS THE AREA. SEEMS
WORTHY OF A SMALL POP. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLGT CHC
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA AS THE S/W PASSES BY TO OUR
SOUTH.

SMALL POPS CONTINUE SUN NGT INTO MON AS ANOTHER WEAK TROF DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NW. ALTHOUGH...THIS WAS LOOKING BETTER
ON THE 00Z RUN VS THIS MORNING/S 12Z RUN. COULD SEE SOME LAKE
EFFECT NEXT WEEK TUE/TUE NGT AS LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND
RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE NRN GRT LAKES. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT...AND THE FACT THAT ICE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG OUR SHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY...AS SHOWN ON GFS AND CRAS MODELS. THESE MODELS MAY BE A BIT
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
MID LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS...WITH THE CURRENT VERY DRY
AIRMASS THAT WOULD HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. SO...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
CEILING MENTION FOR NOW.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 170909
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
409 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM FCST FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND P-TYPE 
SUNDAY...THEN A MILD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF 
NEXT WEEK.  

00Z 500/300MB ANALYSIS INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH 
/AND CORRESPONDING SNOWSTORM/ ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH A MEAN RIDGE 
CENTERED OVER THE WRN CONUS. 300MB JET DRAPED OVER THE WRN GREAT 
LAKES...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CIRRUS UPSTREAM OVER MN/IA. AT 
850MB...DEEPENING LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT NEWD INTO NEW 
ENGLAND...WITH 850MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH WI 
REMAINING IN A COOL NWLY FLOW REGIME. AT THE SFC...MSAS ANALYSIS 
INDICATING SFC HIGH PARKED RIGHT OVER THE WI...RESULTING IN GNRLLY 
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE CWA. 

TODAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER SRN WI AS BROAD SFC HIGH REMAINS 
OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING SKIES TO REMAIN PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH 
4KM CRAS MODEL SHOWING THICKEST JET CIRRUS TO REMAIN WEST OF CWA. 
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CU DEVELOPING AT TOP OF 
MIXED LAYER...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE A DECENT...ALBEIT COOL DAY. MAX 
TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN MID/UPR 30S...STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS SFC HIGH LINGERS OVER THE 
AREA. 850MB RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EWD IN CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SUN...WITH 
WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING W/SWLY.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...ALTHOUGH 
INCREASING HI/MID CLOUDS MAY TEMPER LOWS A FEW DEGREES.  

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GFS/WRF-NMM FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING 
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND 
ACROSS WI ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO 
INDICATE STRONG LOW LVL WAA PATTERN TO KICK IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 290-295K SFCS AFTER 18Z. BEST 
SATURATION...AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN WI 
FROM 00Z MON-12Z MON WHEN COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW 
LEVEL FRONTOGENISIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT. 
PRECIP TYPE REMAINS IN QUESTION...AS TOP DOWN APPROACH FROM MODEL 
SOUNDINGS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF RAIN OR 
SNOW...WITH THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE WRF-NMM FAVORING RAIN...WHILE 
THE COOLER GFS FAVORS MORE SNOW/SLEET...AT LEAST AT THE ONSET 
/MAINLY DUE TO WET BULBING EFFECTS/.  PREFER THE COOLER GFS SOLUTION 
ATTM...BUT WILL KEEP MIXY MENTION GOING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.  QPF 
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS IN THE 0.1-0.2" RANGE...SO COULD SEE AROUND AN 
INCH OF WET SNOW...MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS.

MAY SEE SOME PRECIP LINGER IN THE EAST EARLY ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE 
SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A 
DRIER NWLY FLOW TO RESUME.


EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER ON 
TUESDAY. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF THEN INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE TO A BROAD 
S/SWLY FLOW ALOFT BY MIDWEEK...LEADING TO A POTENTIALLY WET AND 
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM NWD 
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE MEDIUM 
RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE INITIAL TROF 
MOVING THRU THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUE-THU...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN 
EYE ON TIMING OF PRECIP.  TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK WELL 
ABOVE NORMAL ON THU-FRI AS GFS/ECMWF INDICATING 850MB TEMPS RISING 
BACK INTO THE 8-10C RANGE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND PRECIP 
WATER VALUES EXCEEDING ONE INCH WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER IN 
THE FORECAST...AS MODELS INDICATING MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 250 J/KG.
IF WERE TALKING MUCAPES...HOPEFULLY SPRING IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI FOR
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MF/TZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 242016
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
316 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT
48 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...HAVE PULLED BACK ON TIMING OF NIGHTTIME
PRECIPITATION AS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA TO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS SLOWED BY CONVECTION
OVER IOWA. ALSO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS PER RUC PROGS
CONTINUE TO HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION APPROACHING CWA FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA. HOWEVER PROGS EVENTUALLY BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CLOSE ENOUGH TO CWA AND MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN IOWA TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION OVER CWA LATER TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AGAIN GENERATING
AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN AGAIN
IF APPROACHING PRECIPITATION IS DELAYED FURTHER
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.
HOWEVER WILL ONLY MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN BODY OF FORECAST AS
BELIEVE THE COMBINATION OF ARRIVING RAIN AND ENOUGH STIRRING OF
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION.

.LONG TERM...PROGS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING A FAIRLY
QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. RESIDUAL
MORNING CONVECTION WILL RAPIDLY EXIT CWA. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WHICH WILL ALLOW MOIST AIRMASS OVER CWA TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH TIME. NOT MUCH ARGUMENT WITH SPC MODERATE/SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE FOR CWA WITH BEST TIMING EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. CRAS MODEL REFLECTS INITIAL TIMING OF CONVECTION WITH
COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AROUND 21Z SUNDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WORDING IN ZONES AS SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS FOCUS OVER
CWA. AMONG PARAMETERS INCLUDES 0-1KM EHI OF 1-2, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
50-60 KNOTS, MLCAPE OF 1200-1700 J/KG, 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7C/KM.

.LONG LONG TERM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MONDAY TO BE A QUIET
WEATHER DAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
BEGINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES SCOURING OUT LOWER LEVELS A
BIT THIS AFTN. HOWEVER CONCERN IS HOW EXTENSIVE FOG WILL GET TNGT.
WITH BOUNDARY PROGGD TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH TNGT WILL INCREASE AT
LEAST SOME CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION FAVORABLE OF FOG
FORMATION. WHAT CONCERNS ME THOUGH IS THE WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A BIT SREONGER THAN LAST NIGHT AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOC
WITH APPCH WRM FNT....WHICH LESSENS CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER ANALYSIS OF
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS WHICH LEADS TO NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE
SURFACE. FOR NOW WILL NOT BUCK THE CONSENSUS OF THE MET/MAV/FWC MOS
AND GO WITH BRINGING BACK THE VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS NEAR AND AFTER 6Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 022003
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON WEATHER SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...EFFECTS OF PASSING OF SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND LONG TERM TREND OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER.

.SHORT TERM...NGM/NAM/GFS/CANADIAN PROGS CONTINUE IN QUITE CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH 1-2 PUNCH WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER EASTERN
ROCKIES. RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET AS
NOSE OF 850 MILLIBAR JET PERFECTLY ORIENTED FOR CWA BY 06Z WITH 40
TO 50+ KNOT CORE OVER EASTERN IOWA SHOWN NOW ON ALL PROGS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS STILL IN LINE WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION AND HAIL
SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE SMALL HAIL IN FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. RAPIDLY RETURN OF MOISTURE REFLECTED IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY TIME RAIN EVENT COMMENCES.
GOES SOUNDER DATA ALREADY SHOWING POOLING OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES JUST SHY OF 1 INCH OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THUS WILL ALSO
INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL IN FORECAST OVERNIGHT. CRAS LOOP BLOSSOMS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER EASTERN IOWA BY 03Z AND TRANSLATES ACROSS
CWA AROUND 06Z. WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AS EXCELLENT
ISENTROPIC/OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS TO FEED COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY PROGS SHOWING VALUES OVER 1
WHICH IS TOP OF CHARTS FOR APRIL. THIS EFFICIENCY EXISTS AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY OVER CWA WITH PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. WILL FOLLOW PROGS AVERAGE TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW WHICH TAKES LOW OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST ILLINOIS BY
18Z. THIS BIT OF A DELAY FROM PREVIOUS PROG RUNS MAY ALLOW SOME
WARMER AIR TO SEEP INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TEMPERATURES THERE. ANY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR REGION
SHOULD BE LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY WITH
HAIL AS MAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM...SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT PASSES EAST OF CWA.
TOYED WITH HIGH WIND WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS AROUND CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD HAVE OPTED TO
JUST MENTION WINDY CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH
EXPECTED. LIKE TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER FAR NORTHEAST PART OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. STAYED
CLOSE TO TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

.LONG LONG TERM...AFTER PASSAGE OF WEATHER SYSTEM
GFS/DEGEX/ECMWF/CANADIAN PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A PROLONGED
COLD PERIOD OF WEATHER AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES DOMINATE
IN VIRTUALLY ALL LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE AND LASTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCT VFR CONDS TIL ARND 06Z. AREAS OF -SHRA FM BKN080
TIL ARND 03Z...THEN SCT -TSRA FM BKN050 TIL 06Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
FM 06Z-11Z WITH WDSPRD TSRA. XPCT WDSPRD IFR CONDS AFT 11Z WITH
AREAS OF -RA AND SCT -TSRA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 131942
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
242 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE OVER TEXAS PAN
HANDLE REGION. CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST
AND PHASES WITH LOW NOW JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
CYCLOGENISIS FROM THIS HAPPENS WELL EAST ALONG EAST COAST OF U.S.
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AIR WITH SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS BORDER. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD COME AS TROUGH
PHASES WITH NORTHERN SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT QPF.

UPWARD OMEGA IS SMALL...SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAINLY AROUND
700MB...BUT THIS IS ALSO WEAK. LOCAL WRF_ARW 20KM MODEL BASED ON GFS
TILES IS MUCH DRIER...AND IS PREFERRED.

4KM WRF_ARW WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION DOES BRING SOME QPF JUST ALONG
IL BORDER BY 16Z SATURDAY...BUT IS DRY BY 19Z. HOWEVER THIS IS
BASED ON 06Z GFS.  THE 20KM WRF_ARW BASED ON 12Z GFS IS DRY.

MODIS DATA SHOWING LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WATER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
40S...WITH INLAND LAKES MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

12Z CRAS IR MODEL INDICATES A MORE NORTHERN SHIFT OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS. CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS PRECIP MAY BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH
THAN NCEP MODELS.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING RAPID SNOW MELT...WITH REMAINING SNOW COVER
MAINLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN N-S AXIS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL AROUND 10-15 MILES INLAND FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.

.LONG TERM...

FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN WITH MAIN TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND
EAST...WITH GENERAL RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. PREFER ECMWF
SOLUTION. GFS SEEMS TO PUSH SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. TOO
EARLY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY OVER SRN WI AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THE NRN PERIPHERY OF VERY LGT RAIN MAY
REACH THE WI/IL BORDER ON SATURDAY BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WOULD REMAIN
VFR.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/06/20

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 151955
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE WEAK INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. HOWEVER UPWARD
MOTION IS WEAK...AND CU IS SHALLOW...ONLY AROUND 100MB DUE TO DRY MID
20 DEW POINTS AT SURFACE. CELLULAR PATTERN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...SO
EXPECT CU TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. USED BIAS
CORRECTED GFS40 TEMPS FOR LOWS...WITH MINOR CHANGES.

LOCAL 4KM WRF_ARW BASED ON 06Z GFS WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION
ACTUALLY VERIFIES WELL WITH ONLY ECHOES ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
YESTERDAYS MODEL OVERDID SHOWERS OVER WI DUE TO TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

LOCAL 20KM WRF_ARW BASED ON 12Z GFS HAD BEST DEPICTION OF WIND
PATTERN ALONG LAKE BREEZE AND WEAK TROF MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WI.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO DOMINATE MONDAY. LAKE BREEZE TO KEEP SHOWER
AREAS RATHER COOL...DUE TO A BIT STRONGER WINDS AS EAST COAST
STORM INTENSIFIES AND INCREASES PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

ECMWF ANS GFS DOES PUSH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THAT APPEARS TO PHASE
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND LARGE UPPER LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND. WILL KEEP MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
THIS. U.W. CRAS IR FORECAST INDICATES WEAKENS SHORTWAVE WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS...AND CLOUDS FROM EAST COAST SHORTWAVE NEVER
REALLY REACHING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...
PREFER ECMWF SOLUTION THAT REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS APPEARS TOO FAST IN BRINGING
NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

ECMWF BRINGS SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA ON
FRIDAY...THEN REESTABLISHES RIDGE AGAIN. THIS DIFFERENT THAN GFS.
PREFER ECMWF. THIS WOULD REDUCE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEKEND FROM GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.MARINE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SRN WI BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH NLY
WINDS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN AND IA WILL THEN MOVE EWD
INTO WI TNT AND MON WITH LGT SFC WINDS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/GEHRING

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 162001 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT MON APR 16 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. BIAS CORRECTED NAM12 AND GFS40 TEMPS BOTH SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL TEND TOWARD THE COOLER MOS.

LOCAL 4KM WRF_ARW BASED ON 06Z GFS DID A VERY GOOD JOB WITH LAKE
BREEZE PLACEMENT.

EXCELLENT DAY FOR MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMP. UPWELLING HAS COOLED
NEAR SHORE WATERS TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. INLAND LAKE AND RIVER TEMPS
SEEM TOO WARM.

ECMWF ANS GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL KEEP MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS
DUE TO COLLABORATION AND CONSISTENCY. U.W. CRAS IR FORECAST
INDICATES THAT THE PRIOR PHASE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND LARGE UPPER LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL OCCUR AFTER SHORTWAVE
WEAKENS. RETROGRESSION OF CLOUDS FROM EAST COAST SHORTWAVE OCCURS
WEDNESDAY. SOME HINT THAT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR FROM
THIS...BUT POPS SHOULD BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...
GFS NOW IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF SOLUTION THAT REESTABLISHES UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY...GFS JUST A BIT FASTER IN NEXT
SHORTWAVE FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN BETTER...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH SLOWING DOWN SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM EAST CENTRAL WI SWWD TO
ERN IA AND NRN IL BY 00Z WED. VFR CIGS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 261958
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
258 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION WITH PASSING STORM
AND EFFECTS OF WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...HAVE ADJUSTED ZONES TO REFLECT NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
AS IT RELATES TO MINOR DRY SLOT AFFECTING CWA ASSOCIATED WITH
ILLINOIS STORM SYSTEM. FEEL SCATTERED SHOWERS THE WAY TO GO EVEN
WITH PIVOTING OF RAIN BAND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CWA. WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS ON CURRENT INFRARED
SATELLITE LOOP CONFIRMED BY CRAS MODEL. RUC/NGM/NAM/GFS PROGS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ILLINOIS LOW TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SO ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OUT OF CWA BY EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...PROGS TRACK WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS CWA SATURDAY. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS SHOWN BY WRF MODEL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAIN FACTOR
IN CONTINUING DRY FORECAST.

.LONG LONG TERM...GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATING A DECENT WARM UP
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF CWA.
VERY DRY AIRMASS AND +18C 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY
MODELS ALONG WITH 50+ 850 MILLIBAR WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE A VERY
WARM AND DRY DAY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN IL WILL MOVE NEWD INTO LOWER MI
TNT AND INTO CANADA ON FRI WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO WI FRI AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TNT AND INTO FRI MORNING WHILE SCT TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN FAR SE WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAINLY
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TNT WITH
AREAS OF IFR VSBYS AS WELL. DENSE FOG NEAR LAKE MI FROM KMKE SWD INTO
IL WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN WINDS TURN FROM NELY TO NLY. VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL
WITHIN THE DENSE FOG. CIGS WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SRN WI ON FRI FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/20

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 311957
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
257 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON EFFECT OF DAKOTA/S SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...BACK EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEPICTED WELL BY
NGM/RUC/NAM/GFS PROGS TO EXIT STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF
CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN LINE WITH CRAS MODEL MOVEMENT WHICH PROJECTS
DRIER AIRMASS SWEEPING OUT LINGERING CLOUD DECK OVER CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH CALM WINDS AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER CWA EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HARD TO PIN DOWN
POTENTIAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG BUT FEEL THAT CURRENT CONVECTION
FROM FOND DU LAC COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO WALWORTH COUNTY WILL ADD
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOWER VISIBILITIES. WILL SLOWLY RAISE RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER A RAIN FREE FRIDAY
MORNING AS SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE NEAR CWA IN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS HEAD OF APPROACHING DAKOTA/S UPPER LOW SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN NAM AND GFS PROGS WITH HANDLING
OF LOCATION OF DAKOTA/S UPPER LOW BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH EASTERLY MOVEMENT TOWARD CWA THAN NAM. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT GFS HAS UPPER LOW OVER GREEN BAY WHILE NAM POSITION IS OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA. CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS COMPROMISE WITH LOW
LOCATION OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR NOW WENT WITH COMPROMISE
SOLUTION OF UPPER LOW WHICH KEEPS HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN FORECAST
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE ZEROED IN ON HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY VALUES TO PUSH RAIN CHANCES INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1 INCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WITH STRONGER STORMS FOCUSED ON A BOUNDARY
OR LIKELY TRAINING OF ECHOES AS WINDS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL UNTIL
PASSAGE OF LOW. LEANED TOWARD 3 HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY
AS COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST AIRMASS TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON FOG POTENTIAL TNGT. FAIRLY LIGHT 
WIND REGIME SETTING UP TNGT WITH AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN CLOUD 
COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT MOISTENING OF THE BL WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT 
IN IFR VSBYS AND POCKETS OF LIFR VSBYS. SHOWER POTENTIAL IN ERN WI 
THIS EVE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 092026
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

FORECAST FOCUS ON PLEASANT WEATHER EXTENDING INTO NEXT WEEK AS 
BLOCKING PATTERN SLOWS SYSTEMS.

.IN THE SHORT TERM...MID/HI LVL CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING SRN HALF OF MN IN ZONAL FLOW 
OVER NRN CONUS. ACCAS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...PER LGTNG STRIKES 
ON 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING PLOTS...IN TIGHT POCKET OF 305K ISENTROPIC  
LIFT WITH LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. THIS POCKET OF LIFT 
AND BETTER 850-700 MB RH WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH. 

WILL INCREASE CLOUDS OVER CWA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT AS MID/HI 
CLOUDS IN NRN IA ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SHRT WV PASS THRU...WHICH IS 
WELL DEPICTED ON CRAS IR FORECAST IMAGERY.

WELL MIXED OUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 40S WILL COME UP WITH 
OVERNIGHT STABILIZATION OF BNDRY LAYER. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A ONLY 
FEW DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHT'S LOWS ALONG THE LINES OF THE COOLER MAV 
GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY FOG IN RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS POSSIBLE.

ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER CNTRL U.S. LATE 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
...AND THE AXIS CENTERED OVER WI... RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO 
SPREAD INTO CWA WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS UNDER +10 C THRU LATE TUESDAY 
AS BETTER LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST OF CWA. SHORT WAVE ENERGY 
DEPICTED ON MODELS TRYING TO BREAK THRU ARE REMNANTS FROM NOCTURNAL 
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE IN LOW LVL JET TO OUR WEST AND APPEAR 
OVERDONE. WILL LEAVE FCST DRY UNTIL WEAK SFC TROF APPROACHES FOR 
THURSDAY. 


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ALL MID/LONG RANGE MODELS NOW ADVERTISING A STRENGTHENING OF OMEGA 
BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THRU MOST OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z 
ECMWF TRIES TO BRING A STRONGER SHRT WV TROF THRU UPR MIDWEST LATE 
THURS/FRI THAN THE 00Z GFS ENS AND 06Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS. 00Z 
GEM SUPPORTS THE ECMWF...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW BRINGING A WEAK 
BOUNDARY ACROSS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY AS WEAKENING SFC 
FRONT/TROF MOVES INTO CWA...THEN SLGT CHC FRI IN EAST WITH HINT OF 
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG INVERTED TROF. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND 
OF MOS GUIDANCE AND HPC FOR TEMPS WITH TWEAKS FOR LAKESHORE 
COOLING.    


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN 
IN PLACE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A LGT SLY 
WIND FLOW OVER SRN WI.  

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

09/20

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 112041
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

FORECAST FOCUS ON CONTINUATION OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER...WITH AN 
EYE ON MOISTURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.

PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE BEST FORECAST TOOL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 
DRY HI PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING 
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER SRN WI.

EXTENDED IR LOOPS SHOWED BANDS OF MID/HI CLOUDS OVER SRN WI THIS 
MORNING WERE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN CNTRL/NRN MN AND SRN ONTARIO
LAST NIGHT THAT TRACKED DOWN FRONT SIDE OF BUILDING UPR RIDGE. GRB 
AND DVN SOUNDINGS AT 12Z SHOWED ANOTHER 20-30 DM HEIGHT RISE FROM 
00Z RAOBS.

GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW PW/S OVER SRN WI HAVE 
FALLEN FROM 1-1.2 INCHES TO AT OR BELOW 0.8 INCH AS SFC HI CENTERED 
OVER LK HURON BROADENS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. MKX 88-D 0.5 
REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT TRACKED A DENSITY BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO 
NORTHWEST ACROSS CWA OVER THE MID DAY HOURS AS DRIER AIR FROM THE 
SOUTHEAST SPREAD OVER THE REGION AROUND THE STRENGTHENING HIGH.

PW FORECASTS SHOW LOW VALUES OVER SRN WI INTO THURSDAY WITH MOIST 
AXIS WELL TO THE WEST OVER WRN MN ERN DAKOTAS. 

SO PERSISTENCE IN FCST AS OMEGA BLOCK PREVENTS ANY SERIOUS MOISTURE 
OR TEMPERATURE ADVECTION OR FORCING THRU THE WEEK. WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS OVER SRN WI WILL STAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPS THRU 
THE WEEK CLOSE TO WARMER MAVMOS NUMBERS.

SOME CONCERN WITH 500 MB LOW OFF BAJA COAST...THAT IS FIRING 
CONVECTION IN THE SW U.S. THIS AFTERNOON... BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND 
AFFECTING WRN GREAT LAKES RGN AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY 
THURSDAY...BUT ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS BREAK OFF AND WEAKEN THIS LOW 
IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. CRAS FORECAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO 
INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. BULLSEYE OF LIGHT QPF OVER SRN WI IN 
RESPONSE TO INCREASING SFC DEW POINTS IN MODELS...WITH INCREASED SFC 
BASED INSTABILITY. MSN BUFKIT SNDGS FOR BOTH GFS AND NAM INDICATE 
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HOLDS THRU THE DAY.

.EXTENDED...GFS STILL TRYING TO BRING WEAK FRONT THRU STATE LATE 
FRI/SAT WITH ECMWF AND GEM TAKING WEAKENING 500 MB TROF FAR ENOUGH 
TO THE NW THAT SFC TROF WASHES OUT BEFORE REACHING CNTRL/SRN WI. 
WILL KEEP END OF WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND DRY UNTIL MAIN 500 BM TROF 
SWEEPS ACROSS US/CAN BRDER WITH STRONGER FRONT MOVING THRU SUN NGT 
AND MONDAY.    


&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

09/20

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 131930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO TO DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CU WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY...GIVEN THE SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE ON CURRENT RUC SOUNDINGS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. SOME CONCERN ON FOG. HOWEVER LOW LAYERS DRY...AND WITH
SHORT NIGHTS...ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE IN RIVER VALLEYS. LAST NIGHTS
MODIS 11UM - 3.9UM 1 KM RES FOG IMAGE DID NOT SHOW ANY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS. TODAYS GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DRIEST
AIRMASS HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. WITH MORE MOISTURE...MAINLY AROUND 200-300 MB...EXPECT
SOMEWHAT LESS RADIATION AL COOLING. GOES SOUNDER DATA IS MUCH DRIER
IN THE MID LEVELS THAN RUC. GOES SOUNDER IS MORE IN LINE WITH NAM SOUNDINGS.

1 KM MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMP SHOWING MID 50 TO NEAR 60 MID LAKE
SURFACE TEMPS...WITH NEAR SHORE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES 15Z MODIS IMAGE IS AN EXCELLENT DATA SOURCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TRANSITION FROM OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION SATURDAY IS THE QUESTION. GFS HAS A
MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION...ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...WITH THE NAM SLOWER
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH SOME RIDGING STILL EVIDENT...WILL
TAKE MORE OF A NAM APPROACH FOR NOW...BUT WILL STILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR THE MORE SOUTH
POSSIBILITY.

GFS ALSO BRINGS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO PLAY SUNDAY ...AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING 850 MB FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE. OF COURSE IF NAM IS CORRECT...THIS PRECIP
WOULD BE MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND WAIT FOR FURTHER TRENDS IN THE
NEW MODEL RUNS.

12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE QUICKER GFS. ENSEMBLES WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE POPS. CRAS MODEL APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE
NAM.

.LONG TERM...

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS SHORTWAVE PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS FASTER THAN ECMWF. PREFER
THE SLOWER MOVEMENT SO WILL LINGER A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO
TUESDAY. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS NEXT 48 HOURS. NO CIGS AND VSBYS AOB 6SM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/KOCHIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 171936
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
240 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CHALLENGE IS THREAT OF CONVECTION 
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTING TO 
LIKELY CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
WEAK EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT ATMOSPHERE UNCAPPED WITH LATEST SPC 
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 MLCAPE AND BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS.  
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/LAKE BREEZE MAY ACT AS FOCUS FOR ISOLATED 
CONVECTION NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT EXPECT THREAT TO DIMINISH 
RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORT 
WAVE. FOCUS FARTHER NORTH WHERE STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE 
JOINING WITH NOSE OF INCREASING 85H LOW LEVEL JET.  GFS AND NAM IN 
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FILLING BUT STILL POTENT SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WISCONSIN LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL DEEPER 
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND 
MONDAY AS SHOWN BY CRAS FORECAST IR AND WV IMAGERY. THINK NAM-WRF 
MAY BE OVERDOING AMOUNT OF FORCING MONDAY MORNING AS IT TRIES TO 
BREAK AWAY PIECE OF ENERGY FROM CENTRAL PLAINS CIRCULATION AND SPIN 
IT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  WILL MAINTAIN DRY 
WORDING IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE THE SPIN UP 
TO LIKELY WORDING ACROSS THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.  AXIS OF STRONG 
SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT 25H 
JET PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH 
06Z/19.  MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED TO BE OVER AREA WITH PWAT VALUES OF 
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES.  MBE VELOCITY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT ONSET SO WL 
INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WORDING MONDAY EVENING.

RAPID POST FRONTAL DRYING LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING 
WITH PERIOD OF SCT-BKN STRATOCU LIKELY IN IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR 
ADVECTION AND LINGERING THERMAL TROF THROUGH 18Z/19.  LEANING TOWARD 
DRIER GFS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY AS AXIS OF WEAK Q-VECTOR 
CONVERGENCE PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOW LEVELS REMAIN 
QUITE DRY.  

FOR EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME 
INCONSISTENCIES BEING INTRODUCED BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE IN 
REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION THREAT LATER IN THE WEEK.  LAST SEVERAL 
RUNS OF GFS SHOWING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW 
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY 
TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER GFS SHOWING ALOT OF INCONSISTENCIES ON STRENGTH 
AND EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.  LENDING VALIDITY IS THAT THE 
ECMWF IS ALSO SHOWING 500HPA SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS IA/WI BORDER 
AREA FRI NGT.  GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ABOUT ON 50/50 SPLIT FOR SHORT 
WAVE AT THIS PERIOD.  ENSEMBLE PERCENT OF PRECIPITATION ALSO 
INCREASES TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT.  HENCE WL ADD SCHC WORDING TO FRI AND 
FRI NGT...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD TO SAT AS WELL.  

GFS 5 DAY 500HPA MEANS CONTINUING TO SHOW ZONAL FLOW OVER NRN CONUS 
FOR FIRST PART OF FORECAST PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO MORE BROADSCALE 
RIDGING ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST CENTERED AT 00Z/24 AS FILLING LONG WAVE 
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE RESULTING IN TYPICAL LATE JUNE WEATHER... 
WARM AND OCCASIONALLY UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA PSBL INTO EVE HRS AS ATMOS UNSTBL THO 
FORCING DUE TO WRM FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD...SO WHILE 
SLGT CHC EXISTS FOR ONE TO POP YET INTO THE EVE HRS...WILL LEAVE OUT 
OF TAFS FOR NOW. WITH WRM FRONT LIFTING NWD BROAD SRLY FLOW WILL 
BECOME ESTABLISHED. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURG FCST PERIOD. 
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR HAZE DURG THE NGT AND ERLY MRNG HRS. SSW 
WINDS WILL PICK UP MONDAY MRNG AND WILL BECOME GUSTY AS BETTER 
MIXING EVOLVES DURG THE MRNG HRS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
11/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 211946
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
246 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN CONCERN IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. VERY UNSTABLE LIFTED
INDEX`S NEAR MINUS 10 OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA IN MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION PUSHED BOUNDARY
WELL WEST INTO EASTERN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL. ACTUAL CLOUDS ON
BOUNDARY HAVE DISSIPATED BUT LACK OF CU SEEN IN MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
LITTLE IN WAY OF SURFACE BASED MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED. HOWEVER
MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI.

LOCAL 4 KM WRF4 BASED OFF 06Z GFS IS HANDLING CURRENT
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS THE BEST. THIS TAKES ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN MN INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH WEAKENING
CONVECTION OVER THE THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
THE WRF4 TAKES THE MCS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND DRIVES IT SEWARD
JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS THE MCS WHICH WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL.

GOES SATELLITE DERIVED LI-S SHOW A STRONG LI GRADIENT WITH -7 OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI TO PLUS 7 OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. IN
ADDITION GOES SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO SHOW A STRONG
GRADIENT WITH 1.5 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI TO AROUND 0.75
NEAR SHEBOYGAN. CI FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA WHICH WILL SHIELD THE VALUES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. 1757 Z MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPS SHOW VERY COOL
WATERS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MI...WITH ONLY LOWER 50
TEMPS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE LAKE SHORE COOLING...AND INLAND TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THIS FROM PREVIOUS UPWELLING. NOW WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
EAST...EXPECT THESE WATERS TO WARM A LITTLE. JUST BEFORE CI
PUSHED EAST WAS ABLE TO GET GOES SOUNDER FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE IL
BORDER WITH LI OF -4 WITH 2.3 OVER SHEBOYGAN. SOUNDING SHOWS ANY
SHOWERS OVER THE SHEBOYGAN THIS EVENING WOULD BE FROM DYING
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS WOULD EVAPORATE
THESE RATHER QUICKLY.

PREFER GFS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS
HAS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE NAM AND U.W. CRAS MODEL. AS SUCH WILL HAVE POPS LOWER THAN
NAM MOS POPS.

.LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. BY WEDNESDAY JET BECOMES
MORE ZONAL...INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION POTENTIAL AS BOUNDARY
GETS CLOSER. NOSE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IMPACTS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
MODEL TRENDS ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND KMSN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SLOW MOVING SURFACE AND 850MB CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
SAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST. SO WILL CARRY VCTS THERE TROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO...MESOSCALE MODELS POINTING AT SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA FOR BEST CHANCE FOR MCS TONIGHT...AS
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THAT AREA. STILL...WILL CARRY TEMPO FOR THUNDER
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KMSN INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AS KMSN MAY
BE ON FAR EASTERN END OF MCS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THIS IN LATER TAFS.
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
NOW...UNTIL HIGHER CONFIDENCE CAN BE ATTAINED ON CONVECTION
PLACEMENT AND TIMING.



&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 252006 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
227 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT AFTERNOON CU TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LACK OF
HEATING. PREFER RUC SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING THAT HAVE A BIT MORE
CAP WITH CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH LACK OF TRIGGER...AND
MODERATE CAP...POTENTIAL FOR MOIST CONVECTION IS LOW.

LOW LEVELS MORE MOIST...BUT WINDS PICK UP JUST ABOVE SHALLOW
SURFACE INVERSION. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND SOME
STRATUS...BUT NO ADVISORY DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW.
LATEST MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
SHORE...STILL COOLER THAN ADVECTING DEW POINTS.

LOCAL 4KM WRF BASED ON NAM TILES SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MEAN RH IN
THE 1000 TO 850 MB LAYER...SO STATUS SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE. 12Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. NAM SOUNDING SHOWS SOME AROUND 700MB. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOT TOO UNSTABLE...AND SHEAR IS WEAK. HOWEVER NAM CONTINUES
TO BRING CAPES TO 2500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ISOLATED.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS AFFECTS OF RATHER STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. GFS AND ECMWF REMAINS VERY SIMILAR.

ON GFS AND NAM...COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS THE SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW MOIST CONVECTION DIMINISHING DURING
DIURNAL LULL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THEN AS FROPA COMES
DURING PEAK HEATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH 2500 J/KG AVAILABLE ON
NAM...MOIST CONVECTION AND QPF INCREASE. WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK...HOWEVER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF INCREASING UPPER JET MAX
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN UPWARD MOTION WITH FROPA IN THE
SOUTHEAST. CRAS DOES SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG FRONTAL BAND IN
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT MAIN COLD THUNDERSTORM TOPS OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND FRONT.

MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS THEN WITH THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS WEAKENS THE RIDGE...BUT
PREFER STRONGER RIDGE ON ECMWF. AS RESULT WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...LK FOR AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS 4-5SM HZ TIL ARND 03Z...THEN
MVFR VSBYS IN BR HZ WL BCM WDSPRD. XPCT IFR VSBYS BTWN 1-3SM IN FOG
AFT 06Z AND CONTG TIL 14Z. 3-5SM HZ FM 14-17Z TUE BCMG VFR CONDS FOR
TUE AFTN. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ISOLD LIFR CIGS DVLPG BTWN 08-14Z.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/KOCHIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 042023
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THURSDAY.  TERMINAL DOPPLER SHOWS LAKE BREEZE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
MILWAUKEE...CENTRAL RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES.  WINDS ON EITHER
SIDE OF LAKE BREEZE AROUND 10KTS.  MUCAPE 1500 TO 2000 JOULES IN
THESE AREAS.  THINK MAY BE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO STILL SET OFF
ISOLATED CONVECTION NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE FROM MORNING SC FIELD...HOWEVER WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION THIS EVENING AS EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NORTH WHERE BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDS
FROM NORTHERN TIP OF GREEN BAY TO NEAR STANLEY.  SEVERAL
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THIS LINE BUT MAINLY APPEARS TO BE FOCUS OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DENSITY DISCONTINUITY BOUNDARY.  BOUNDARY
WEAKENS THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION BUT ENOUGH OF THE
CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CWA. CRAS FORECAST IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS WEAKENING AREA OF ENHANCED
TOPS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING.

FARTHER NORTHWEST...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST ND/NORTHWEST MN AREA SOUTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG.  HAVE TRACKED WAVE ON STEADY EAST TO SOUTHEAST PATH FOR
LAST 24 HOURS AT A STEADY 40 KTS.  THIS TRACK AND SPEED WILL CARRY
WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NAM-WRF HANDLING
THIS FIRST WAVE A BIT BETTER THAN GFS.  WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE NIGHT AND A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...WILL ADD SCHC POPS TO ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT.

LAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING RIDGE IN VICINITY OF ALBERTA
PROVINCE AT THIS TIME.  GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THIS SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE BUT NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT CIRCULATION IN WV IMAGERY AT
THIS TIME.  AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN 6 TO
7 DEGREE RANGE. BULK SHEAR MORE IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY WITH LOWER
WET BULB ZEROS.  WL CONT CHC POPS FOR CONVECTION AT THIS POINT BUT
HOLD OFF ON SCT MENTION.  GFS DID SHOW IMPRESSIVE AREA OF 400MB
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AREA THAT PASSES BY ON THURSDAY.  IF THIS IS
REALIZED...THEN BETTER CHANCE FOR SCT ACTIVITY.  BUMPED TEMPERATURES
UPWARD ON SATURDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS SET UP UNDER LOTS OF
INSOLATION.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF BREAKDOWN OF UPSTREAM RIDGING WHICH ALLOWS
COOL FRONT TO SAG THROUGH WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  MAJORITY
OF LONG TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING HIGHER
AMPLITUDE TROFFING DEVELOPING OVER ERN CONUS DURING THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO.
HOWEVER LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS SLOWING DOWN FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL MONDAY...AND ECMWF ABOUT A DAY LATER WITH THE DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW.  HENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING...WL CONTINUE
CHC POPS ACROSS CWA BEGINNING SUN NGT AND CONTG THROUGH MON NGT.
WITH SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE MUCH OF
SUNDAY...WL CUT BACK TO SCHC POPS AND ONLY IN NRN HALF OF CWA.  DRY
SWLY WINDS AND DEWPTS IN THE 60S...BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS SUN IN THE
90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE AS 850HPA TEMPS CLIMB TO 21-22C.  GFS
ENSEMBLES SPLIT ABOUT 50/50 WITH AMOUNT OF NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
TUE AND WED. WL CONTINUE WITH DRY LATER PERIODS FOR NOW.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GFS 5 DAY 500HPA MEANS.  PERSISTENT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS THRU NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM
LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMOLY WEAKENS.

&&

.AVIATION...LK FOR VFR CONDS TNGT AND THUR. HWVR...PIECES OF UPR LVL
ENERGY WL PROD SCT -SHRA/ISOLD -TSRA THIS EVNG AND OVRNGT. AMS RMNS
UNSTBL THUR SO SCT -TSRA COULD RDVLP. DO NOT XPCT ORGANIZED CIGS BLO
040 OR VSBYS BLO 6SM TNGT OR THUR.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
11/35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 051958
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
258 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY WARM WEEKEND TEMPERATURES AND
VARIETY OF RAIN CHANCES.

.SHORT TERM...EXPECTING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TO COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. CRAS LOOP AGREES WITH BLOOMING OF BULK OF
CONVECTION OVER NORTH PORTIONS OF CWA AS WELL AS CLOUD DISSIPATION
BY 06Z. MSAS LIFTED INDICES SHOWING SOME STABILIZING OF AIRMASS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA DURING AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEW POINTS
MIX OUT. MEANWHILE...BETTER CONCENTRATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AT
500 MILLIBARS FOCUSED OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
ALONG WITH DECENT COLD AIR TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEATHER NIL AS PROGS AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS CWA WITH TIME. IDEAL SET UP EVOLVING FOR A SURGE OF VERY
WARM TO HOT AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS WEEKEND. 850
MILLIBAR WINDS PROGGED TO TURN TO SOUTHWEST WITH DECENT GRADIENT
ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES PROGS BETWEEN
19C AND 22C SATURDAY AND 22C TO 24C SUNDAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
PROGGED TO BE IN MID TO UPPER 60S. BUT WITH GOOD MIXING OF DRY
AIR RESIDING IN LOW LEVEL OF ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES TO BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. ANOTHER CONCERN ON
SUNDAY WOULD BE CLOUDS FROM ANY CONVECTION IN THE NORTH TO REDUCE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWS ON THE
STAY CLOSE TO TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG LONG TERM...SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE HANDLING OF
TIMING OF SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS LEADS TO BROAD BRUSH RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BUT HAVE THERE WILL BE A TREND
TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AS FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ALLOW A
PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WL CONT THRU 00Z SAT. XPCT SCT CIGS 050-070 FM
21-06Z. SCT-ISOLD TSRA WITH VSBYS 3-5SM THRU 06Z THIS EVNG DUE TO
COLD UNSTBL AMS IN MID AND HIGH LVLS ALNG WITH UPR LVL ENERGY. AFT
06Z...LK FOR VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH NO WX.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 081956
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
256 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY IN
WEEK.

.VERY SHORT TERM...POOLING OF 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS ADVECTING OVER
CWA FROM EASTERN IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S TO
AROUND 100 EARLY THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 10C FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER CWA GIVES CONFIDENCE TO RETARD ONSET OF
CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS CWA.
WRF/NGM/GFS/NAM/RUC PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT
SAGGING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. TREND OF PROGS QPF
SHOWS BULK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WITH SOUTH GETTING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION BY 12Z MONDAY.
THERE STILL EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AOA 35 KNOTS.

.LONG TERM...PROGS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH HANGING UP OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF CWA MONDAY. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT
PROVIDES FOCUS FOR CHANCY CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES...SO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASES. DECENT THETA E RIDGE
LIES OVER CWA THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD. CRAS SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS SEVERAL COLD CLOUD CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER CWA FORMING OVER
REGION IN WEAK MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. NAM/GFS PROGS BRING
VERY IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS CWA TUESDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH
DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF AREA.

.LONG LONG TERM..GFS/ECMWF PROGS BOTH DEVELOP LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY CANADA. THIS PUTS CWA IN A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS MN AND NW WI SUN AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SWD THROUGH SRN WI STARTING AT 03Z BUT BECOMING
STATIONARY ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER MON AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITH THE FRONT TNT AND MON. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT LIGHT WINDS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOIST
AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO LOCAL MVFR HAZE AND/OR FOG LATE TNT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/20

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 122019
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...NEAR TERM FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES THRU THE WEEKEND.

CURRENT -SHRA/TSTMS OVER NRN WI IN RGN OF 1000-850 MB THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND ALONG SFC TROF WHICH IS A REFLECTION OF 500 MB SHRT
WV TROF DROPPING THRU NRN WI. MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 TO
6.5C/KM OVER STATE WITH PCPN ON LEADING EDGE OF -17 TO -20C 500 MB
TEMPS THAT WERE INDICATED ON RGNL 12Z RAOBS. MU CAPE AT OR ABOVE 500
J/KG OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE STATE UNDER THIS COOL POCKET...WHICH
WILL BRUSH NERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS TROF SWINGS THRU.
SECONDARY VORT MAX ON WRN END OF 500 MB TROF ENHANCING PCPN IN VCNTY
OF RICE LAKE AND EAU CLAIRE...EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM NR WISC RAPIDS
TO LAKE GENEVA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE OF PCPN TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
ENOUGH QG FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLIDE INTO THE NE HALF OF
CWA...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WILL TREND SCT PCPN
WITH BETTER 1000-850MB AND 850-700 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS IN
LINE WITH LOCAL WRF MODEL COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY AND QPF...WHICH
SHOWS A MARKED DECLINE IN PCPN AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME ISOLATED
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 05Z ON GFS CORE VERSION. WILL MAKE LAST-MINUTE
ADJUSTMENT BEFORE ISSUANCE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

SUBSIDENCE AND SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT
SHRT WAVE IN NW FLOW TO BEGIN SWD TREK ACROSS STATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. PCPN REACHES NRN SECTIONS OF CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE AND SFC TROF PUSH ACROSS RGN...THEN EXITS TO
THE SOUTH BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SATURDAY...PER FRONTOGENESIS FCSTS.
WILL HOLD TO HI CHANCE POPS NORTH AND TREND LOWER TO THE SW AS
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AGAIN TAKES
BETTER SHRT WV ENERGY THRU NERN CWA. CRAS FCST IR IMAGERY DEPICTS
ENHNACED CLOUD TOPS ALSO FOLLOWING THIS TREND FOR FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER BREAK ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING...AND 850 MB WAA
RAISING TEMPS FROM +14 TO +16C AT 00Z MONDAY...TO +17 TO +20C OVER
SRN WI BY 12Z MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
HAVE BETTER COVERAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALLOWING MIXED LAYER CAPE TO CLIMB TO 1150 TO 1300
J/KG.


.EXTENDED...GFS/GFSENS/EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND UKMET ALL AGREE THAT
VORTEX OVER JAMES BAY/HUDSON BAY TO LINGER THRU THE EXTENDED PD. ALL
MID RANGE MODELS TAKE A SFC LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA WITH MONDADY/S
WEAK SFC TROF/COLD FRONT STALLING IN VCNTY OF NRN IL/WI BORDER. AS
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
BOUNDARY THAT WILL AFFECT PCPN CHANCES FOR SRN WI THRU WEDNESDAY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY OF BOUNDARY PLACEMENT FOR ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD...WILL FOLLOW HPC BLENDED SOLUTION AND KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN FCST FOR FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL MODELS
AGREE THAT HI PRESSURE WILL PUSH BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
THURSDAY TO CLEAR PCPN CHANCES FROM SRN WI FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC
TROUGH DROPPING SWD THRU SRN WI WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS
EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A LINE FROM
KDLL-KMSN-KENW. ANY IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE BRIEF...WITH AREAL
COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN TERMINALS ATTM. LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY W/NWLY WINDS TO EASE BY SUNSET AS WIND DECOUPLE. WEAK RIDGING
TO RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&


.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

REM/MAF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 132023
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...
PLENTY OF CU OVER SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MUCH VERTICAL EXTENT
WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 8500 FT BEHIND DEPARTING SHRT WV
TROF MOVING INTO THE ERN GRT LAKES. HI CLOUDS STREAMING SWD FROM
APPROACH OF NEXT SHRT WAVE TROF THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS SRN ONTARIO
TNT INTO SATURDAY. SREF...GFS AND NAM SIMILAR IN TIMING OF SFC
FRONT...WITH GFS HAVING A SLGTLY BETTER HANDLE ON DEPTH OF
ASSOCIATED SFC LO AT 18Z.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH DEEPENING SYSTEM PUSHING 850 MB
WINDS TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCERASING FLOW CROSSES MAINLY CNTRL WI BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO BETTER TO OUR NORTHEAST
ABOVE 700 MB AHEAD OF PV ANOMALY. CRAS IR FCST IMAGERY SHOWS MOST
ENHANCED CLOUDS TRACKING FROM NW TO E CNTRL WI. BEST SFC TO 850 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING STAYS NORTH OF CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...SO WILL TIME PCPN INTO CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SAT WITH
HIGHER CHCS NORTH AND SLGT CHC SOUTH.

FRONT SLOWER TO EXIT SRN WI THAN 24 HRS AGO...PUSHING INTO NRN IL
AROUND 18Z. BEST CHC FOR PCPN SAT MORNING...THEN TRENDING OUT FROM
NW TO SE. HI PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY...WITH NEXT WAVE
BEING HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS. GFS FASTER WITH PLAINS
CYCLOGENESIS AND TIMING OF FRONT INTO SRN WI THAN NAM. SREF AND EURO
A BIT SLOWER AND PREFERRED SO WILL HOLD PCPN OUT OF CWA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING.

FRONT MOVES THRU MONDAY AND STALLS OVER NRN/CNTRL IL AND REMAINS A
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THRU MID WEEK.

.EXTENDED...
MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NW FLOW HOLDING UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK WHEN UPR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY SLIDES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR WRN
RDG TO BUILD IN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FRONT DROPPING THRU WI MONDAY
STALLING OVER CNTRL/NRN IL. POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLAINS
COULD TRACK EAST ALONG BOUNDARY TUE AND WED NIGHTS. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT OF LO PRESS IN PLAINS AND
SUBSEQUENT NOCTURNAL LOW LVL JET STRENGTH. WILL GO WITH BLENDED
FIELDS AND COLLABORATIVE SOLUTION...KEEPING CHC POPS IN SRN CWA AND
TAPERING TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM BNDRY LOCATION UNTIL IT LIFTS BACK
TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT. END OF THE WEEK
LOOKS WARM...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING ABOVE 590 DM AND 850 MB
TEMPS CLIMB TO +20C AND ABOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF PD.
SCT-BKN CU FIELD ACRS SRN WI THIS AFTN WITH CI COMING ACRS UP TOP
FROM THE NW. CHCS OF CONVECTION INCREASE AFT 8Z. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER TNGT AS DECENT PRES GRAD EVOLVES AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL
NOT LWR CIGS BLO VRF AS YET GIVEN ANTICIPATED EVEVATED NATURE OF
TSTMS. BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILE BEARS OUT WELL BOTH THE ELEVATED
INSTAB ABV LOW  LEVEL DRY AIR. SOUNDINGS DO ATTEMPT SOME SATURATION
IN THE LWO LEVELS AT TIME OF CONVECTION THO THIS IS BRIEF AND STILL
IN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

REM/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 140912
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
412 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

.SHORT TERM...STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT VIA 50 KT LLJ IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN CWA. THEY WILL
QUICKLY MOVE E-SEWD AND EXIT MOST OF SRN WI BY 12Z. COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER NW WI WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ENOUGH CAPE
FOR RE- DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MAY OCCUR IN NRN IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

NW FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATER
TNT INTO SUN NT. WEAK VORITICY MAXIMUMS WITHIN THE FLOW MAY BRING
SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GFS APPEARS TO
BE TOO FAST WITH PROGRESSION OF SFC WAVE AND ASSOCEATED MCS FOR
SUN NT/MON. NAM...CRAS...AND OTHER MODELS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FROM
MON THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A COUPLE SFC WAVES WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF WI. FOR TEMPS WENT COOLER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH MON AS MODEL IS TO PROGRESSIVE AND THEREFORE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KMKE
BETWEEN 0930Z AND 1100Z.  ELEVATED NATURE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
KEEP MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  PRECIPITATION MAINLY JUST NORTH OF KMSN.
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND REST OF DAY
SHOULD BE FINE WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.  DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

GEHRING/CRAVEN

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 142019
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLEARING SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDNG IN. WEAK DCVA WITH LOBE
FROM DEPARTING VORT MAX AND INSTABILITY WITH 850 MB COLD POOL
SWEEPING OVER NE WI AT MAX HEATING TIME TRIGGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALONG SECONDARY SFC TROF. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE PRIOR TO
ISSUANCE TIME...THO DIURNAL NATURE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH THREAT
TOWARDS EVENING.

SERIES OF UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CNTRL
CANADA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO CROSS STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS IN NW FLOW. NAM APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING CONVERGENCE AND
1000-850 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH WEAK SFC TROF ALL MODELS ARE
SHOWING FOR SUNDAY...WITH A 12 MICROBAR/SEC OMEGA BULLSEYE BELOW
10KT FT ON CROSS SECTIONS FOR MSN.

WITH A POOR PERFORMANCE INITIALIZING AND TRACKING TODAY/S PCPN AND
TOO MOIST DEW POINTS FEEDING THE MEAGER CAPE ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FOR SUNDAY...WILL TREND WITH THE GFS AND LOCAL WRF 20 KM AND KEEP
SUNDAY DRY...WITH CVA AND BETTER QG FORCING STAYING TO THE N OF OUR
AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE QUICKEST BRINGING WAVE IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. CRAS AND WRF 20 INDICATING BETTER FORCING WITH THIS WAVE MAY
BE THRU SRN MN/ERN IA/WRN WI MONDAY...WITH PCPN NOT BREAKING OUT
OVER CWA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM INCREASING 850
MB FLOW OVER STALLING SFC BNDRY. WILL SPLIT TIMING DIFFERENCES AND
BRING SLGT CHC INTO NW HALF OF CWA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...THEN ACROSS
ALL OF CWA FOR MONDAY.

.EXTENDED...
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AMONG THE MID
RANGE MODELS IS A SLOWER EXIT TO THE NE OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX AS
A SHRT WV TROF DROPS DOWN BACK OF MEAN TROF POSITION MID WEEK WHICH
DELAYS WRN RDG FROM BUILDING INTO THE CNTRL CONUS UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. CONSENSUS HAS BNDRY THAT MOVES THRU MONDAY STALLING A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH OVR CNTRL IL WITH MORE OF A NNWLY FLOW ALOFT...THEN
SUBSEQUENT SERIES OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA AND ASSOC SFC WAVES ALONG
FRONT TO KEEP PCPN CHCS IN FCST. TRIED TO VARY POPS TO REFLECT
BETTER/LESSER CHCS THRU THE EXTENDED UNTIL EXPECTED HI PRESS BUILDS
IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 7/14/07 12Z GFS NOW SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A RETURN TO 500 MB RIDGING AND
WARM 850 TEMPS BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL GO WITH
BLENDED SOLUTION FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR BETTER CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CU FIELD WILL BE PREVALENT INTO THIS EVE IN WAKE OF DEPARTED
COLD FRONT. ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTIONS...PRES GRAD AND SUBSIDENCE
LEADING TO SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS TO 25 KTS. THIS EXPECTED TO ABATE
DURG EVE AS GRAD SLACKENS WITH SYS MOVG FURTHER AWAY. LIGHTER WIND
REGIME ON TAP FOR TNGT. WILL STEER CLOSER TO THE GFS SOUNDING FOR CU
DEVELOPMENT SUN MRNG AND KEEP IT IN VFR CAT GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
UPSTREAM DEW POINTS SUPPORT 50S MORE THAN THE 60S IMPLIED BY THE NAM
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

REM/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 170804
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

I WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW GFS SOLUTION IN KEEPING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. I THINK NAM SOLUTION OF
MOVING BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH IS UNLIKELY. STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO FOCUS MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

H700 CAP IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GFS INDICATES CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL SOUTHEAST JUST EAST
OF THE CAP. ALL MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRACKING
SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...PRODUCING A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE
AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRAVEL ALONG THE MID LEVEL CAP...AND SURFACE
BOUNDARY INTO CWA. CRAS IR LOOP IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS
AND NAM FORECAST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRAVELING SOUTHEAST IN H500
FLOW INTO CWA. MODELS INDICATE PERIODS OF STRONG OMEGA...FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AND THETA-E RIDGING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE PERIODS OF STRONG ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAV
MOS POPS LOOK REASONABLE.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THURSDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY. A 100KT H300 JET IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING...BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE STRONG. WILL MENTION SMALL POPS FOR THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...SFC FRONT FROM SRN MN TO SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS DIFFER ON NORTH-SOUTH MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE...AS A COUPLE SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC
LIFT/FRONTO-FORCING DROP SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL
CLOUD LAYERS EXPECTED...RANGING FROM AROUND 3500 TO 10000...WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF MVFR CONDS OF CIGS 2500.  VSBYS POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO 5 MILES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY
OF MCS TUEDAY NIGHT...BUT CAN/T PIN TIMING OF THIS EVENT DOWN AT
THIS TIME. BATCH OF CONVECTION IN SRN MN WILL DROP SOUTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
IN SOUTHEAST CORNER JUST ABOUT OVER.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

35/34

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 180804
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

I HAVE BASICALLY IGNORED THE QPF PATTERN OF MODELS AND MOS POPS
SINCE THESE HAVE BEEN BAD THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES HAVE ALSO BEEN INCONSISTENT ON MODELS. ORGANIZED CONVECTION
HAS GENERALLY BEEN ALONG THE H850 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND NOT THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...SO I WILL FOLLOW THIS PATTERN FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH H850 BARO ZONE NEXT TWO
PERIODS. THE LLJ AND BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD REMAIN ORIENTATED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY...JUST NORTH
OF THE H700 CAP. ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THIS
REGION TODAY...WITH SMALLER CHANCES TO THE EAST. THE MODELS
FORECAST THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HENCE THE QPF PATTERN...TO
BECOME ORIENTATED MORE WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. CRAS IR LOOP IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE NAM12 LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON THE BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN PUSHED
SOUTH OF WISCONSIN...AND THE COLUMN DRIES OUT. THE CAA PATTERN IS
WELL UNDERWAY AS THE CANADIAN RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WISCONSIN FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH QUIET WEATHER AND A VERY DRY
COLUMN.


&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS /FOG AND HAZEE/ THRU ABOUT
MID-MORNING ACROSS SRN WI DUE TO SOME HOLES IN CLOUD COVER AND
LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM SCATTERED CONVECTION. SOME ISOLATED POCKETS
OF IFR/LIFR FOR A 2-3 HOURS...BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO BE A
DOUBLE STRUCTURE...ONE IN WI AND ONE DOWN IN IL...BOTH EXTENDING
BACK TINTO SRN MN. WARM AIR ADVECTION STREAM SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE
UP STORMS OVER EXTREME SRN MN/NRN IA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND STORM
SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THICKNESS FIELD...MOSTLY AVOIDING SRN WI. SO
EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF TSTMS POPPING UP FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY IN
SRN WI...BUT THEY ARE LIKELY IN THE IOWA/LAFAYETTE/GREEN COUNTY
AREA. AS THE DAYTIME HEAT BUILDS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE SCT TO BKN AT
3500 TO 5000 HEIGHTS...AND VSBYS TO BE IN THE 6-10 MILE RANGE.
SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BETTER DYNAMICS FOR
STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAYBE A MCS. AFTER TSTORM COMPLEX WED
NIGHT...MVFR FOG AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...LOCAL IFR VSBYS AND
CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN WAKE OF TSTORM COMPLEX.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

35/34

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 032055
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
355 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.IN THE SHORT TERM...SUNNY SKIES OVER WISCONSIN AS NARROW RIDGE HAS
SETTLED OVER STATE BETWEEN CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTERED NR HUDSON BAY
AND SHORT WAVE TROF TRIGGERING CONVECTION IN CNTRL S DAKOTA. DRY AIR
THAT HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WILL BE A PLAYER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL EASILY COOL INTO THE 50S
AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ENOUGH TO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION...THO RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE SOME
PATCHY AREAS TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS SLOWER TO BRING REMNANTS OF MCS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH
PLAINS SHRT WAVE INTO WISCONSIN SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NAM SEEMS TO BE
UNDULY IMPACTED BY CURRENT CONVECTION...DEVELOPING A DEEPER SFC AND
MID LVL SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THAT TRACKS FARTHER
NORTH THAN OTHER MODELS. WILL TREND TOWARDS GFS AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS WHICH TRACK MCS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT BRUSHES SW WI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AS 850 WRM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
SRN WI. HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARDS GFS AND LOCAL WRF 20KM MODEL QPF
FIELDS. CRAS IR FCST IMAGES FOCUS COLDER CLOUD TOPS FOR TONIGHT
WITH CURRENT CONVECTION IN NE N DAKOTA AS WELL AS S DAKOTA
STORMS...WHICH WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH WI...WITH A REGENERATION
AROUND 12Z NR DBQ.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTRMS TO EXIT TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
PROXIMITY OF BNDRY WILL KEEP SLGT CHC IN FCST THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY BUT NOT ALL DAY
AFFAIRS. RIDGING FINALLY BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV/MEX TEMPS...BUT COOLED HIGHS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AIR HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED...WITH DEWPOINTS
HAVING MIXED IN TO THE LOWER 40S IN MANY AREAS.  THAT SHOULD
DISCOURAGE RADIATION FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.   ANVIL CIRRUS FROM
DISTANT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SLOWLY LOWERING VFR
CEILINGS.  LATE IN THE AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN AT MADISON
FROM MID LEVEL DECK...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITIES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

REM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 192029
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND 
ACTIVE WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

CWA RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WITH RGNL PROFILERS AND 88-D VAD WINDS 
SHOWING 850 MB WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE WEST...WITH BEST LIFT 
FOCUSED ON NRN IL CLOSER TO SFC WRM FRONT. RESPITE WILL BE 
SHORT-LIVED AS 2 FEATURES APPROACH CWA. CONVECTION IN SW/ SCNRTL MN 
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES IN FAR SE 
S DAKOTA...SECOND FEATURE IS APPARENT MCV EJECTING NEWD FROM REMAINS 
OF ERIN WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SURGING NWD THRU NRN MO/SE IA AND 
INTERACTING WITH SFC FNT DRAPED ACROSS NRN IL. TSTMS ARE FORMING IN 
NERN IA AHEAD OF THIS MCV. SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS 2 GROWING AREAS OF 2 
INCH PWS WITH THESE FEATURES THAT MODEL FCSTS MOVE INTO CWA AFTER 
00Z.

SFC-850 AND 850-700MB 2D FRONTOGENTIC FCSTS SHOW INCREASING FORCING 
AS 850 MB WINDS BACK TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE SHRT WV TROUGH OVER 
LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE...THO WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN LAST 
NIGHT...IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE.  SFC FRONT LIFTS CLOSER TO SRN WI AS 
WELL. MIXED LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES OVER CWA BETWEEN 06Z 
AND 12Z...WITH GFS BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE FOR MSN 
INCREASING FROM AROUND 650 J/KG AT 03Z...TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 09Z.
  
CRAS INFRARED FCSTS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL 
OVER SRN WI AS THE TWO AREAS PHASE OVER NE IA/SW WI WITH CRAS 
SHOWING COLDEST CLOUD TOPS MOVING FROM SE MN/NE IA AT 00Z SPREADING 
OVER THE CWA BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.

WITH SATURATED GROUND AND ONGOING FLOOD PROBLEMS IN WRN CWA...AND 
LOW COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD 
WATCH FROM 23Z TODAY THRU 12Z MONDAY FOR COUNTIES CURRENTLY IN THE 
FLOOD WARNING. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FLOOD WARNING GOING UNTIL 7 PM 
FOR S CNTRL WI COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS ONGOING FLOODING 
PROBLEMS...BUT CANCEL FOR SE WI COUNTIES.

BEST FORCING FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF CWA DURING THE LATE DAY 
MONDAY...BUT SFC BNDRY...850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SERIES OF SHRT 
WAVES EJECTING FROM NW U.S. TROF AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN U.S IN 
ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP CHC PCPN IN FCST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.

.EXTENDED...A BLEND OF GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PREFERRED FOR 
EXTENDED. THIS SOLUTION...FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE 
WEDNESDAY...DROPS THE SFC BNDRY TO THE WI/IL BRDER AND STALLS THERE 
FOR THURSDAY. 850 MB FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE 
FROM THE PLAINS AND PROVIDES LIFT ACROSS BNDRY TO KEEP CHC FOR 
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FCST...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. THIS LAST WAVE IN A SERIES TRACKS ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES 
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NEEDED BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER AS DRY 
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING SFC 
LOW AND HOLDS OVER REGION THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCT WDSPRD MVFR CONDS IN -RA/-TSRA/BR THRU 00Z MON. 
AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPCTD IN PDS OF HVY RA/TSRA INTO 18Z MON. 
STNRY FNT ACRS IA AND NRN IL THRU PD WITH MSTR LIFTING OVR FNT INTO 
SRN WI. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FOR WIZ056>058-062>064-067>069.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY 
FOR WIZ056>058-062>072.

&&

$$

09/09/35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 091850
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
150 PM CDT SUN SEP 9 2007

.SHORT TERM...
AS ADVERTISED 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. A LARGE SCALE MID
LEVEL TROF WITH A VERY POSITIVE TILT DRIFTS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF
THE U.S. AND REACHES THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. AS THIS
EVOLVES...THERE IS A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
THAT OCCURS FROM SW WI BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...THEN BREAKS DOWN. THE CIMSS/SSEC CRAS INFRARED
SATELLITE DEPICTION IS PROVIDING A LITTLE BIT OF CLARITY. IT
APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE OVR NRN NW MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTH AND GET
PICKED UP BY THE NRN STREAM TROF AND PROVIDE SOME ADDED FORCING
ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AN IMPRESSIVE 250 MB JET WILL ALSO
PROVIDE SOME DEEP UVV IN THE RR ENTRANCE REGION. THE CRAS IR
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS NICELY. AS THIS MOVES EAST...IT IS AT THIS
TIME THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE IN. WILL HANG ONTO THE CHANCE ACROSS THE SE INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS THE RR OF THE UPR JET IS STILL PROVIDING SOME
INFLUENCE.

.LONG TERM...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT FORCE FOR SRN WI FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER DURING THE
PERIOD. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FCST
PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE NRN GRT LKS THU NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN IMPRESSIVELY CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TIMING IS A BIG ISSUE
AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...SRN WI WL REMAIN IN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME 
BETWEEN STG SFC HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WEAK LOW OVER THE OHIO 
VALLEY.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU EVENING...ALTHOUGH OCCNL MVFR 
CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR LK MICHIGAN DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. 
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO EJECT ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO 
MONDAY. SHOWERS DVLPG OVER IOWA TO SPREAD EWD INTO WI TOWARDS 
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP 
AT TERMINALS AFTER 15Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR 
CIGS/VSBYS...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER 
POCKETS OF RAINFALL.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
05

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 101914
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
214 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...FCST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE TREND OF PCPN ENDING THIS
EVENING...THEN COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.

TIMING OF PCPN SHIELD HAS THE BACK EDGE CLEARING KMSN BY 21-22Z
AND THE SE CORNER PROBABLY BY 02Z-03Z. HUNG ONTO IT A LITTLE
LONGER IN THE SE IN CASE THERE IS SOME SLOWING. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND FRONTOGENTIC FORCING WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST VERY QUICKLY AFTER
00Z. ENJOYING THE UTILITY OF THE CIMSS/SSEC CRAS MODEL IR
DEPICTION OF CLOUD TRENDS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BACK EDGE OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOUDS EXITS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NEXT VERY POTENT S/W DROPPING THROUGH MANITOBA
AND SW ONTARIO CANADA ARE APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE CRAS IR DEPICTION IS A BIT HEAVY ON CLOUDS/MOISTURE ALONG THE
EDGES OF BOTH ZONES...BUT THE TIMING LOOKS GOOD. THERE WILL BE A
SHORT WINDOW OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BEFORE THE MID DECK ARRIVES
BY 12Z. MAIN FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE N OF
THE CWA AND DON/T BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY
PCPN DOWN HERE ON TUE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY TREND. THOUGH IF
AN AREA IS UNDER ANY RISK OF PCPN ON TUE...IT WOULD BE UP NEAR
SHEBOYGAN AND FOND DU LAC. LIGHT STUFF.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ARRIVAL OF VERY COOL AIR FOR TUE NGT. NAM MOS
THE COLDEST...SHOWING SOME MID 30S IN OUR WRN CWA...WHILE GFS NOT
AS COLD. SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREV FCST OF
PTCHY FROST IN OUR WRN CWA.

COOLISH ON WED WITH WED EVENING TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT...BEFORE
RISING LATE AS WAA KICKS IN. NON-DIURNAL TREND EXPECTED FOR WED
NGT.

NEXT STRONG CDFNT AND NARROW BAND OF PCPN TIMING PUSHED OFF FOR
MAINLY THU NGT...EXITS THE SE BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THEN A REALLY
CHILLY SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR ARRIVES WITH A VERY LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. NICE WEEKEND SHAPING UP.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF IFR/LIFT CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS ACCOC
WITH RAIN SHIELD WORKING ACRS SRN WI. LLVL RH PROGS...BUFKIT DATA
SUGGEST SOME IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVE AS RAIN DIMINISHES. MORE
APPRECIABLE IMPROVMENT TAKES PLACE DURG THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GO
FOR A TRANSITION TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z TIME FRAME WITH
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHT. WHILE MOS WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TNGT...BUFKIT SHOWS PLENTY OF WIND OFF THE DECK TO KEEP MENTION OUT
OF TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
DAVIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 122011
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL ISSUES TO FOCUS ON IN SHORT TERM.  EXPECT COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE THINNING AS WARMER
AIR ALOFT RETURNS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.  WITH
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO FALL OFF RAPIDLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER TONIGHT.  WENT WITH
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND EVEN LOWER IN A FEW EASTERN SPOTS.  BOTH NAM
AND GFS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND TIMING OF PASSAGE.  HOWEVER PREFER SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM SOLUTION
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH UKMT AND CANADIAN...HOWEVER THIS HAS LITTLE
EFFECT EXCEPT FOR SLOWING WIND SHIFT SEVERAL HOURS.

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE 2-D FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS TIED IN WITH AREA OF
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REACHING 10 UNITS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ENOUGH INCREASE IN LAYER
RH AFTER 00Z/14 TO WARRANT CONTINUING CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLD THUNDER
AS OVERNIGHT LAPSE RATES OVER 7 DEGREES AND ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
BELOW ZERO.  HOWEVER BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX LINES UP WELL TO THE NORTH.  CRAS FORECAST IR
IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCEMENT MOVING THROUGH CWA MAINLY FROM 03Z TO 11Z
WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE COMPARED TO SYNOPTIC FORCING.

A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS THE THERMAL TROF
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN GTLAKES.  GFS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY
ALONG WITH WRF-20KM IN SFC RIDGELINE SETTING UP OVER WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z/15.  SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON 85H
TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO -1C SETTLING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
PLENTY OF TIME FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  SREF PROBABILITIES FOR SFC
TEMPERATURES BLO ZERO INCREASES TO OVER 50 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
CWA BY 12Z/15.  THIS PRODUCT PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING
UPSTREAM IN NORTHWEST WI AND MN.  HENCE WL ADD FROST MENTION ACROSS
CWA WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MI FOR LATE FRI NIGHT.

FOR EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IN CONSENSUS ON LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST ON SATURDAY.  LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CUTTING OFF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WEAK SFC BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU WI
SUNDAY AND SUN NGT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT...HOWEVER LATEST ECMWF SHOWING MORE IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF RH
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION STEAMING ACROSS SRN GTLAKES. FOR
NOW WL CONT DRY OUTLOOK FOR SUN NGT INTO MON BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WL
NEED TO WATCH FOR CHANGES IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TEMPORARILY BUILD BACK INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS.
WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP NORTHWARD ACROSS CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES NORTH BUT SCHC POPS MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  GFS ENSEMBLE PERCENT OF PRECIPITATION
HOLDS ONTO LOW POPS THROUGH PERIOD BUT LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS
SLOWING FORCING PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL SYSTEM. DEEPER
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN BY MIDNIGHT AS MORE SUSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
CROSS PLAINS TOWARD WESTERN GTLAKES.

GFS 5DAY 500HPA MEANS SHOW BROADSCALE TROFFING EXPECTED OVER GTLAKES
DURING SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GRADUALLY SUCCUMB TO WARMER ZONAL FLOW
OVER NRN CONUS WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL HEIGHTS BY LATER NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK TROFFING OUT WEST AND LARGE POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMOLY DEVELOPING OVR NRN PACIFIC.  HENCE EXPC COLDER
INTRUSIONS OF TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY TO GET HELD UP
TO THE NORTH FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES OVER SRN WI WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TNT. BREEZY
SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THU AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA. VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 0000
UTC FRI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
MBK/MGG

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 132035
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT-
GOES SOUNDER SHOWS NARROW CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.
ALSO JUST A BIT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES JUST AHEAD OF CLOUDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS TREND OF ELEVATED POST FRONTAL CONVECTION
INCREASING FROM NEAR OMA TO RST. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE MODELS INCLUDING LOCAL WSWRF 20KM AND 4KM ARW CORES ARE ON
TRACK WITH EXPANDING ELEVATED CONVECTION SOUTH DURING THE EVENING
SO THAT MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN GETS WET. CRAS MODEL ALSO SHOWS
NICE FRONTOGENETIC BAND...BASED AROUND 700 MB...PUSHING ACROSS
AREA TONIGHT. GFS SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SHOW ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE
BASED AROUND 735 MB AT 09Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE GET SOME
HAIL...BUT RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

TRIED TO DO BEST TO PUT DETAIL INTO TIMING OF 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST
REMAINS DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SREF POPS OF ABOUT 80% AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WENT ABOUT
20-30% ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE FOR POPS TONIGHT.

FRIDAY-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN QUESTION.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE
RATHER STEADY OR EVEN FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM
SUNSHINE TODAY RESULTED IN SOME RECOVERY BEHIND THE FRONT IN MN.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE NWP INCLUDING THE CRAS MODEL HAVE QUITE A
BIT OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS TOMORROW...CERTAINLY MORE THAN GFS.
BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH. NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER AMOUNT OF DIURNAL SC CLOUDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT-
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED DRY/COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN RAPID CLEARING OF LOW CLOUD DECK. WINDS LIKELY STAY UP
ABOVE 5 KNOTS IN THE EAST...KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES IN 35 TO 40
RANGE WITH LESS RISK OF FROST.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
WINDS LIKELY GOING CALM LOCALLY WITH AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZE.
850 MB TEMPS DROP TO A BRISK 0 TO -2C. COMMENT: THIS FORECASTER NOT
READY FOR WINTER JUST YET.

PATCHY FROST LIKELY AS FAR EAST AS THE KETTLE MORAINE. THIS
IS NOT A SLAM DUNK AS SURFACE HIGH A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF MOST
FAVORABLE TRACK SO WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT LONGER AND REDUCE THE
RISK. NEXT SHIFT CERTAINLY WILL HAVE TO STRONGLY CONSIDER
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY-
ECMWF MORE BULLISH WITH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS/PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THAN GFS. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN
SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY ENHANCE
SUB CLOUD EVAPORATION AND CREATE MORE OF A VIRGA STORM THAN
ANYTHING.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY-
GFSENSEMBLES AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES...ESPECIALLY 850 MB TEMPS. IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +12 TO +18C...FEEL THAT MEX GUIDANCE CLOSE BUT
PROBABLY A BIT COOL SO BUMPED READINGS UP A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE WETTEST PERIOD...AND WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT. SEE THAT 12Z GFSENSEMBLES ARE EVEN
WETTER THAN 00Z WITH MEAN QPF OF 0.15 TO 0.30" OVER WI IN NOSE OF
35 KNOT 850 MB JET.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY-
MODELS THEN DIVERGE...WITH GFSENSEMBLES KEEPING MORE UPPER RIDGING
AND STALLING THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WARM SETUP. ECMWF HAS MORE
SURFACE RIDGING AND PUSHES FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. SOME AFFECT OF
TEMPERATURES BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT
REGARDLESS OF WHAT VERIFIES.

CRAVEN

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. MAY BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT THEY WILL
PREVAIL VERY LONG...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

WOOD

&&

.MARINE...HAVING SOME LAST MINUTE DOUBTS ABOUT MEETING SCA
CRITERIA FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP ENOUGH
TOMORROW IN COLD ADVECTION REGIME TO WARRANT IT. WILL MAKE LAST
MINUTE DECISION ABOUT KEEPING SCA HOISTED TONIGHT...

WOOD

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WOOD/08 - AVIATION/MARINE
CRAVEN/02 - LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 162005
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
305 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES AS OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

.SHORT TERM...NGM/NAM/GFS/WRF PROGS AGREE TO ESTABLISH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OVER CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE OVERALL PROGGED SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAINS WITH BEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER
JET STRUCTURE PASSING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER VERY IMPRESSIVE 850 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET
REFLECTS WELL WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINNING
MONDAY. NOSE OF 30+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTING TOWARD CWA WITH
WILL COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT ISENTROP LIFT AND ADVECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO KEEP SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST FOR
WESTERN PORTION OF CWA MONDAY. CRAS WV FORECAST SATELLITE LOOP
CONFIRMS COOLER CLOUD TOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SOUTHEAST CWA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN ISENTROPIC
PROGS REMAIN AT 100 AND ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OF
CWA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CRAS WV FORECAST SATELLITE LOOP
DEPICT MUCH COOLER CLOUD TOPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
JET CONTRIBUTION OF +18C TO +20C THERMAL RIDGE WITH 40-50 KNOTS
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FUNNEL IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.50 INCHES. PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCIES RISE TO 1.50 AND COINCIDE WITH COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER WILL STILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN CHANCY
CATEGORY AS BEST MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND PROGS ALL SHOW A WEAKENING TREND OF
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER CWA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES BY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES
DUE TO SHALLOW IN NATURE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEN SURFACE
SOUTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS THURSDAY AND GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
IN BALL PARK WITH QUICK WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION....DRY RDG HIGH PRES ACRS SRN WI THRU MON. VFR UFN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 172003
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TIMING OF CONVECTION TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN OF WARM AIR AFTER MIDWEEK.

.SHORT TERM...QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS MINOR IMPULSE PUSHES INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS NGM/NAM/GFS/WRF PROGS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BASIC
TIMING OF CONVECTION WITH APPROACHING COOL FRONT. AHEAD OF FRONT...
ESTABLISHED SOUTHWEST FLOW AT ALL LEVELS INCLUDES 30+ KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET FUNNELING IN TEMPERATURES OF 18C-20C AS WELL AS
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING AT 1.7
INCHES AT 06Z TUESDAY OVER CWA. SUFFICIENT ISENTROP LIFT IN SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHEN CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROP
BELOW 50 IS MAINLY FOCUSED AROUND 06Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES AROUND 06Z TUESDAY MAXIMIZE AT 2.00
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THEN FALL OFF RAPIDLY BY 12Z.
THE BEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO
PASS FROM IOWA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY AREA
OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS PROGGED BY CRAS IR SATELLITE LOOP. THIS
CONTINUES THE WEAKENING TREND OF CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CWA. THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY
RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS AND GO WITH CHANCY MENTION FOR
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO
SHALLOW IN NATURE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEN SURFACE SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS THURSDAY AND LASTS INTO FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY
AND WARM PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS MVFR CIGS WITH SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA N OF LN FM
SBM-LNR TIL ARND 03Z...THEN BCMG QUIET WITH VFR CONDS. XPCT VFR
CONDS S OF LN THRU TUE. LK FOR MDT SLY SFC FLOW TNGT AND TUE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 180830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TIMING OF CONVECTION TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN OF WARM AIR AFTER MIDWEEK.

.TODAY/TONIGHT...NGM/NAM/GFS/WRF MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...AGREE
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...WITH A DOUBLE/TWIN
STRUCTURE...MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH WI AREA TODAY/TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BULK OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHEARS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WITH
THE SHORT WAVE. CORRESPONDINGLY...FAVORABLE 250MB DIVERGENCE AREA IN
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET STREAK REMAINS SKINNY...AND ACTUALLY
FALLS APART OVER SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT. FRONT-FORCING FROM 850 TO 700
MB /5000 TO 10000 FT AGL ALSO WEAKENS. LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OF 50 KTS
FROM KANSAS THRU IA INTO NORTHERN WI PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING
ALSO WEAKENS TODAY DUE TO DIURNAL TREND...AND THE 850 JET STREAK
THEN QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT. MY
COUNTY WARNING AREA ONLY BRIEFLY GETS INTO 850 MB DEWPOINT AIR OF
+12 TO +14 TONIGHT WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS TONIGHT.
SO...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENUF LOW LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE TO AT LEAST
GIVE SOUTHERN WI A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT ALL THE NEGATIVE
POINTS SUGGEST THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FALLS APART OVER
SOUTHERN WI WITH TIME...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WI. THE CRAS
IR SATELLITE LOOP CONFIRMS THIS AS CLOUD TOP TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OVER SOUTHERN WI...AND ACTUALLY WARM BY 06Z.

WED-THUR...HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WI...WITH DRY AIR AND ISENTROPIC DECENT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

THU NGT-FRI...WARM AIR ADVECTION IN LOWER LELVELS RETURNS TO
SOUTHERN WI...ASS UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH ONLY A BRUSHING EFFECT FOR WI. GFS
MODEL SUGGESTS THAT PART OF THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM TEXAS MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN WI ON FRI...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM 850 TO 700 MB. THEREFORE...PERHAPS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR FRI.

&&
.AVIATION...KMSN AND KMKE IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF TROF THAT IS WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TODAY.  CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
OVR SRN WI INTO THE EVENING. THE TROF AND ASSOC CDFNT REACH MKSN
BTWN 06-09Z TONIGHT.  BY THIS TIME THE FRONT HAS LOST MUCH OF THE
LLV FORCING...THE MID LEVEL S/W HAS SHOT OFF TO THE NE...AND DIURNAL
SUPPORT HAS FADED.  ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. FRONT LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH KMSN
AND KMKE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

KAPELA/05

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 182000
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION TONIGHT AND RETURN OF WARM AIR AFTER MIDWEEK.

.SHORT TERM...NGM/NAM/GFS/WRF PROGS ARE SLOWING APPROACH OF
CONVECTION BY SEVERAL HOURS AS SURFACE COOL FRONT AND BULK OF
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY CONTINUE OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
AHEAD OF FRONT...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW AT ALL LEVELS
INCLUDES 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND 850 MILLIBAR THERMAL
TEMPERATURE RIDGE ALONG WITH MOISTURE AS DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S
ALREADY IN PLACE OVER CWA. PREVIOUSLY PROGGED ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN NOW ABSENT AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
DROP TO JUST BELOW 50 AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY ALSO HAVE BEEN
REDUCED TO AROUND 1.50 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THEN FALL
OFF RAPIDLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE BEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER
JET STRUCTURE IS STILL PROGGED TO PASS FROM IOWA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...BUT TAIL OF UPWARD MOTION OVER CWA SOMEWHAT REDUCED IN
STRENGTH FROM PREVIOUS PROG RUNS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY LOOP OF
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS PROGGED BY CRAS IR SATELLITE LOOP. THUS
DELAYING AND WEAKENING TREND OF CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CWA LOOKS REASONABLE.
WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS AND GO WITH
LOWER RAIN CHANCE NUMBERS IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO
SHALLOW IN NATURE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEN SURFACE SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS THURSDAY AND LASTS INTO FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY
AND WARM PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...KMSN AND KMKE IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF TROF THAT IS WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TODAY.  CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
OVR SRN WI INTO THE EVENING. THE TROF AND ASSOC CDFNT REACH MKSN
BTWN 06-09Z TONIGHT.  BY THIS TIME THE FRONT HAS LOST MUCH OF THE
LLV FORCING...THE MID LEVEL S/W HAS SHOT OFF TO THE NE...AND DIURNAL
SUPPORT HAS FADED. KEEPING MKE DRY WITH THE FRONT...MORE IN LINE
WITH GFS POPS AND GUID CIG CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 202013
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.SHORT TERM...LOW STRATUS AND FOG THAT ADVECTED INTO CWA NE OF A MKE
TO DELLS LINE OFF LK MICHIGAN THIS MORNING HAS MIXED OUT OVER LAND
AREAS...THO HANGING ONTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. WITH PERSISTENT
SERLY FLO OFF LAKE WILL SEE IF DISSIPATING TREND CONTINUES...BUT MAY
HAVE TO ADD MENTION OF EVENING FOG ALONG LAKE AT ISSUANCE SINCE
STRONGER SRLY SFC WINDS DO NOT INITIATE THER UNTIL 06Z OR AFTER.

AS STRONG SHRT WAVE DIVING TWDS NRN MT SWEEPS ACROSS NRN TIER OF
STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEE TROF CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE
WRN DAKOTAS DEVELOPS INTO A 998 MB LOW AT 06Z CNTRD OVER S DAKOTA
AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS TO 991-992 MB OVER FAR NRN MN AT 18Z...AND
BOTTOMS OUT BETWEEN 972 AND 976 MB NR JAMES BAY BY 12Z SAT.

STRONG ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG S-SWLY SFC WINDS ACROSS CWA
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS JUST
UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY APPROACH 35 TO 40 MPH...AS NEAR
DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES MIX OUT TO 38-40 KNOT WINDS AT 875 MB.

TSTMS CURRENTLY IN CNTRL MN LIFTING TO THE NE ON NOSE OF 45 TO 55KT
850MB WINDS IN RGN OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS TAKE THIS
POCKET OF LIFT TO LK SUPERIOR BY MIDNIGHT...WITH A REFOCUSING OF
LIFT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW AND STORMS REDEVELOPING OVER SRN MN
OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE CWA DRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

AS STRONG SHRT WAVE SHOOTS THRU NRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS STATE...WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE STRONGER TO OUR NORTH WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW A STRENGTHENING CAP OVER CWA...WITH 850MB TEMPS
REACHING +18C. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS HAS FAIRLY
DECENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING WRN CWA...THEN
DIMINISHING AS BETTER FORCING LIFTS NE. WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIER POPS
OVER NRN AND WRN CWA...TRAILING OFF TO THE SE. CRAS INFRARED FCST
ALSO KEEP COLDER CLOUD TOPS TO OUR NORTH...WITH AGREEMENT OF FRONT
EXITING TO OUR SE AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SAT.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS OF 90F AT BOTH MKE AMD
MSN...THO SW SFC FLOW BRINGS A SLIGHT COOLING OFF LAKE MENDOTA FOR
THE MSN ASOS.

HI PRESSURE TAKES OVER FOR BALANCE OF WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE MID-UPR 70S SAT...THEN REBOUNDING
INTO THE LOW 80S SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH
RETURN SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY. BEST FORCING WITH LOW LVL JET AND MOIST AXIS TO STAY
WEST OF CWA UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON SLOWER ECMWF
TIMING OR FASTER GFS. ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING UP MS RVR VALLEY AND PHASING WITH FROPA OVER CWA MAKES
LIKELY POPS IN MEX GUIDANCE REASONABLE. HAVE UPPED POPS
CWA-WIDE...WITH LIKELYS IN ERN CWA FOR MONDAY EVENING AS BLENDED
FIELDS BRING FRONT THRU CWA MON AFT/EVE...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY IN
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN A PERSISTENT PROBLEM FOR
KMKE THRU EARLY THIS AFTN. FOG STILL PRESENT OVER W LK MI BUT FEEL
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT LATE THIS AFTN. WINDS FALL OFF
SLIGHTLY THIS EVE ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZE DEVELOPMENT
AROUND 05Z...ESPECIALLY NEAR KMKE...BEFORE APPROACHING SYSTEM STIRS
ATM A BIT MORE TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU
PERIOD. BREEZY SW WINDS COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING ACRS S WI...WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT BY 18Z. CHC OF TSTMS FRI EVE MAINLY NW OF
KMSN.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

09/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 222015
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY AFTER QUIET WEEKEND.

IN THE SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CHICAGO WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT. LIKE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING SHALLOW INVERSION THAT DROPS LOWS CLOSER TO
MAV 3 HRLY VALUES FOR TONIGHT AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

RGNL 88-D VAD WINDS AND PROFILERS AT 850 MB SHOW AXIS OF RIDGE OVER
CNTRL IOWA AT 19Z WHICH LOCAL WRF20 HAS WELL-HANDLED. WAA BEGINS
OVERNIGHT WITH HI TEMPS SUNDAY RISING TO NEAR 80 AWAY FROM THE
LAKE...WHERE AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO LOW TO MID
70S.

ATTENTION TURNS TO TIMING OF NEXT FRONT INTO REGION. MODELS STILL AT
ODDS HANDLING PHASING OF CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN SRN CA WITH
PACIFIC NW TROF. NAM/WRF KEEPS A WELL-PHASED POSITIVELY TILTED 500
MB TROF THAT PUSHES EAST OF WI TUE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. GFS HAS LEAD
ENERGY WITH NRN WAVE SHEARING OUT...WITH TROF AXIS PASSING THRU RGN
ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN NAM. 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET...AS WELL AS CRAS
IR ALSO SUPPORT SLOWER SOLUTION SO WILL KEEP PCPN IN FCST THRU DAY
ON TUESDAY...THOUGH LOWER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND TRENDING
DOWNWARD TO THE WEST.

MODELS STILL INDICATE AN ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 WICKING UP THE MISSISSIPPI RVR VLY AHEAD
OF FRONT...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH
RANGE MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN MORE MODEST NAM FCST SNDGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH 1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN A SKINNY PROFILE.
MONDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS WILL BE KEPT AND WILL ADD MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN IN ZONES.

.EXTENDED...
ONCE FRONT CLEARS ERN CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER REGION FOR REST OF FCST PERIOD. BETTER FORCING AND PCPN WITH
SHRT WAVE TROF TRACKING ACROSS U.S./CANADIAN BORDER STAYS NORTH OF
CWA THURSDAY...THO GFS A BIT DEEPER WITH TROF THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
WILL LEAVE WED TO FRI PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. NEXT WAVE IN ZONAL FLOW
NOW A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PCPN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SRN WI THIS
AFTERNOON AND TNT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY SUN WITH INCREASING
SLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A DRY AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

09/20

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 290833
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT-
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING CURRENTLY COVERED BY OVERNIGHT
FORECAST AND WILL NOT ADD AFTER 12Z/7AM.

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR DIGGING THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD NEVADA...WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE PLAINS. PLUME OF MOISTURE IN WARM ADVECTION
REGIME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO
MINNESOTA.

SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN REMAINS IN DRY MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS TODAY
WHICH WILL LIMIT EASTWARD PUSH OF CONVECTIVE THREAT. RUC CURRENTLY
HANDLING LESS THAN 0.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER
EASTERN IOWA. MODELS DO GOOD JOB OF SLIDING NEBRASKA CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PROBABLY WILL BE MORE ANVIL DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING INTO AREA THAN
FORECAST...THOUGH CRAS MODEL DOES A GOOD JOB OF BRINGING SEVERAL
WAVES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS.

SUNDAY-
BOWLING BALL HANDLED IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AS IT SWINGS TOWARD
WISCONSIN. TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND
INSPECTION OF BUFR SOUNDINGS VIA BUFKIT FOR BOTH NAM AND GFS
INDICATE NO CAPE PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION REACHING AREA.

INDEED...INCREASING GRADIENT AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR SUGGEST IT WILL
BE A MOSTLY SUNNY THOUGH INCREASINGLY WINDY DAY. DON`T BRING
ANYTHING INTO WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER 2100Z. NOT SURE IT WILL EVEN
MAKE IT BEFORE 00Z.

SUNDAY NIGHT-
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FROM DIFFERENTIAL PVA AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LIKELY TO PRODUCE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
SURFACE FRONT. ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PER SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...IT APPEARS THAT THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING
INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL BE CROSSING A LARGELY CAPELESS
ENVIRONMENT.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAPID MOISTENING IN STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT IN 700-300 MB LAYER...WITH SATURATED MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES. NEAR THE SURFACE...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR AND
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A STRONGLY FORCED WEAK CONVECTIVE LINE WITH
LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING COULD COME RACING THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING. GIVEN THE OVERALL WINDY SETUP THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT AFTER DARK. WENT AHEAD WITH CATEGORICAL
SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDER...AND MENTIONED GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT-
ALTHOUGH FRONT EXITS RAPIDLY...MODELS HINT AT KEEPING SOMEWHAT
SHOWERY REGIME LINGERING UNDER COLD CORE LOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT.


TUESDAY-
NEXT FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT TIMING IN GFS/ECMWF WORLDS. BUMPED UP
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN LINE WITH NEW GFS MEX GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY-
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DRY WITH 850-300 MB RH BELOW 30
PERCENT. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE PARTLY CLOUDY BUT PROBABLY NEED TO
VISIT ON DAY SHIFT GOING CLEAR/SUNNY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

CRAVEN

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  PATCHY IFR FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS MAINLY IN THE SE DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SOUTH SFC WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS PUSHES
EAST.  MAINLY VFR WITH FEW CU AROUND 5 THSD FT AND CIRRUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ALTOCUMULUS BY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING POLAR HIGH AND APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT
TURNING TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FROM THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING TO
COVER THESE WINDS AND WAVES INCREASING 4 TO 7 FEET SUNDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/06 - AVIATION/MARINE
CRAVEN/02 - LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 292015
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION THREAT BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATER TUESDAY.
SHORT WAVE TIED TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING LARGE AREA
OF QPF OVER SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN WI CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE CLEARING SETTLES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PERHAPS A
FEW SPRINKLES IN FAR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  CRAS IMAGERY DOING A
GOOD JOB HIGHLIGHTING COLDER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING.
MORE IMPORTANT...CRAS FORECAST IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY HIGH
CIRRUS LINGERING OVER SRN WISCONSIN THRU THE NIGHT.  PATCHY CLOUDS
AND SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES.
OTHERWISE VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE UPSTREAM WITH DEWPTS
LOWER BY 5 DEGREES.

ATTENTION TURNS UPSTREAM TO VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT
ON WV IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH.  LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF NAM-WRF IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GFS SOLUTION THAN 24 HOURS AGO...HOWEVER
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND 36 HOURS.  LATER PERIODS OF GFS MORE
IN AGREEMENT WITH WRF-20KM AND HI RES ECMWF WHICH CARRIES UPPER LOW
ACROSS SRN WI SUN NGT WHILE NAM FARTHER NORTH.  SREF ENSEMBLE
PERCENT OF MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION INCREASES TO OVER 80 PERCENT
SUNDAY AS STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS CWA.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 60S INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS...DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURGE INTO SRN WI AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE.  EXPC DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  SURGE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 500
TO 1000 J SUN EVENING WITH 40 TO 50KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  NOT
IMPOSSIBLE THAT FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD CARRY INTO WESTERN PART OF
CWA AROUND 00Z/01.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 6.5 DEGREES WHICH
MAY ALLOW AN AREA OF 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION.  HENCE WL CONTINUE HIGH POPS FOR PRECIPITATION SUN NGT
AND BEEF UP THUNDER MENTION.

UPPER LOW DOES NOT EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY ON
MONDAY.  WITH LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGER MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION...WL CONTINUE SHOWER THREAT DURING THE MORNING.
DIMINISHING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CLEARING SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS
OF FOG LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SECOND STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO SWEEP THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND WILL
POSE A SLIGHTLY LARGER THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN SUNDAY
SYSTEM.

LARGE SCALE UPSTREAM TROUGHING AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN DURING NEXT
WEEKEND.  GFS 5 DAY 500 HPA ANOMOLIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE LARGE
DIPOLAR TYPE PATTERN ACROSS NRN CONUS/SRN CAN CONTINUING THROUGH
00/04.  BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK...WEAKENING UPSTREAM NEGATIVE
ANOMOLY BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL CONUS...FURTHER WEAKENING
POSITIVE ANOMOLY OVER GTLAKES AS EAST COAST RIDGING CONTINUES TO
FLATTEN.

HI RES ECMWF SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY DURING FIRST
PERIODS OF DAYS 4-7 AS SECOND STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY DEPARTS AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WL REMOVE SMALL POPS IN EAST WED MRNG DUE TO PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PERIOD OF DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
SETTING UP FOR WED THROUGH FRI WHILE WEAK BUT BROAD AREA OF RIDGING
PASSES ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS.  BAROCLINIC ZONE AMPLIFIES WELL
NORTHWEST OF AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND SLIPS INTO WISCONSIN FRI NGT
AND SATURDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE POPS VERY LOW UNTIL SAT.
WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO ADD SML
POPS FOR SAT AT THIS POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TO NRN
IA/SRN MN BY 00Z MON. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TNT WITH
LLWS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN WI. LLWS WILL END BY 15Z SUN AS HEATING AND
MIXING ENSUES WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS AT THE SFC. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEST OF KMSN TOWARD 00Z MON WITH A CHANCE OF SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
MBK/MGG

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 012015
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON CLOUD AND FOG
THREAT TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO PRECIPITATION THREAT LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPED LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.  HOWEVER BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS
ONLY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MN TOWARD WESTERN
WI.  STRATUS CLOUDS LINE UP WELL WITH NAM 925 RH ABOVE 90 PERCENT
WHICH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER WI THRU 12Z...THEN BEGINS TO DMSH AS
SLY WNDS INCREASE. TOTAL COLUMN CONDENSATE PRODUCT WHICH HAS WORKED
WELL FOR FORECASTING LOW CLOUDS IN THE PAST INCREASES DURING THE
NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.  LEANING TOWARD ENOUGH MIXING IN THE LOW
LEVELS TO CAUSE LOW CLOUDS TO REFORM DURING THE EVENING.  HOWEVER IF
THIS DOES HAPPEN...THAN FOG ALMOST A CERTAINTY IN ANY AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.  DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN LOWER 60S
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING.
COUNTING ON STRATUS TO KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM FORMING BUT WL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THIS EVENING.  CRAS FORECAST SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO APPEARS TO KEEP WARMER LOW CLOUDS OVER CWA THROUGH LATE
TNGT.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SRN NV
APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN WAVE DEPICTED BY BOTH GFS AND NAM
GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  THINKING THAT MORE COMPACT WAVE MAY PASS
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN/NRN ILLINOIS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT THEN ELONGATED SHEAR ZONE DEPICTED BY GUIDANCE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED RETURN OF MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THIS NEXT WAVE...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALMOST AN INCH TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT EXPECTED...WL BUMP UP POPS TO
LKLY WORDING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BY THE TIME MAIN FORCING REACHES SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AFT 00Z/03...HOWEVER ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 600 JOULES FOR A
TIME IN THE WEST.  SHEAR NOT A PROBLEM ONCE MORE.   NEXT SYSTEM MORE
PROGRESSIVE SO WL CONTINUE TO END PRECIP THREAT BY 12Z ON WED.

FOR EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN EXTENDED GUIDANCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO.  LONG TERM GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING WESTERN
GTLAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.  MORE CONSISTENCIES IN ECWMF AND UKMT
GUIDANCE WITH MORE OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE GFS SOLUTION OF DEEPENING CYCLONE
OVER WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY AN OUTLIER...AND NEW 12Z GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWING LACK OF CONSISTENCY.  MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SHORT WAVE
TROUGH BUT ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. APPEARS MORE
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS GULF SHOULD BE A BIT MORE OPEN THAN
CURRENT. WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT...WL CUT BACK POPS TO SCHC
WORDING FOR SATURDAY WITH EMPHASIS ON REST OF WEEKEND. EARLIER IN
EXTENDED...A GREATER THREAT FOR MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION...HOWEVER FORCING STRONGEST ON THURSDAY...SO WL
KEEP ONLY SCHC WORDING IN SECOND PERIOD.

LARGE UPSTREAM NEGATIVE 500HPA ANOMOLY AS DEPICTED BY GFS 5DAY MEANS
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES WEST INTO GULF OF AK WHILE
DOWNSTREAM LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMOLY OVER NERN CONUS WEAKENDS
BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND INTO FOLLOWING WEEK.  EXPECTED WEEKEND SHORT
WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL CONTRIBUTES TO LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN WI WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND LGT WINDS EXPECTED TNT. SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER
THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BKN-OVC
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME VERY LGT WITHIN A VERY MOIST
LOW LEVEL ENVIROMENT. THE STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG FROM
GETTING DENSE TNT. MVFR VSBYS AND AREAS OF IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO FORM FROM 02Z TO 05Z EXCEPT OVER AND ALONG LM WHERE FOG AND
LOW CIGS ARE ALREADY PRESENT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE ON TUE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. THE WINDS WILL MOVE THE STRATUS CLOUDS
TO THE NE WITH DISSIPATION OF FOG AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FROM 15Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI TO 18Z OVER SE WI. THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SRN WI AFTER 00Z WED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
MBK/MGG

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 062011
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
311 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOWS SHARP DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN US WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

UPPER JET APPEARS TO HAVE ROUNDED BASE OF UPPER TROF...SO MODEL
TRENDS IN FINALLY MOVING IS SLOWLY EAST SHOULD BEGIN.

SURFACE TO 850 MB IS MORE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70. THIS SEEN IN CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LITTLE CAP...BUT RATHER DRY MID LAYERS WITH
MODERATE CU DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
LAKE BREEZE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

LACK OF A TRIGGER STILL BIGGEST ISSUE FOR THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY...AS
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY.

STILL CONCERN FOR MORE FOG WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS COMING
ACROSS THE COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. MODIS STILL SHOWING
SHORELINE AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SOME MID 50S JUST TO THE
EAST. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MUCH OF THE FOG/STRATUS OFF SHORE HAS
DIMINISHED...BUT WAS STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF MILWAUKEE TO NEAR
SHEBOYGAN...BUT NOT AS THICK AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LAKE FOG TO
THICKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADIENT PREVENTS MUCH INLAND PENETRATION.

WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT

GFS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. CRAS
IS A BIT SLOWER WITH UPPER LOW FARTHER SOUTH. THIS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE THAN UPPER LOW GETTING CAUGHT IN MORE NORTH JET.

AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ADVANCING TROF/UPPER LOW
SHOULD MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT NOW MAY MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CUT OFF SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...
WITH GFS MORE IN LINE WITH PROGRESSIVE ECMWF...IT NOW APPEARS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM SECTOR TO DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY. VFR CU FIELD WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR FOG/HAZE
TNGT/ERLY SUN. LEADING EDGE OF THICKER FOG/STRATUS NOTED 5-10 MILES
OFFSHORE OF MKE COUNTY. SOME PUSH WNW NOTED...ESP TOWARDS NRN
MKE AND OZA COUNTY...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 200803
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
305 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND BUT THEN RAPIDLY DIVERGES EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING 
SUNDAY NIGHT.  BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOWING CONSISTENCY IN THEIR 
SEPARATE SOLUTIONS BUT WITH LATEST HI RES ECMWF IN AGREEMENT...HAVE 
TO GIVE THE NOD TO THE SLOWER...MORE AMPLIFIED GFS SOLUTION... 
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE NAM/S TRACK RECORD THE PAST FEW MONTHS. 
WRF-20 AND UKMT ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER SOLUTION HENCE WL BE 
LEANING MORE ON ECMWF/GFS FOR FORECAST SPECIFICS BEGINNING SUNDAY 
NIGHT.

MID CLOUDS BREAKING UP NICELY AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 
INCREASED RIDGING AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  SFC 
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S UPSTREAM.  STRONG SURGE OF MID 
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE TODAY BUT RH REMAINS 
SPARSE...HENCE STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  TIGHTER 
GRADIENT THAN EXPECTED BY MODELS OVER NEARSHORE DUE TO LIKELY 
UPWELLING SO BETTER CHANCE FOR LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS 
AFTERNOON. TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE WEST OF CWA ON SUNDAY.  
WITH EMPHASIS ON SLOWER GFS SOLUTION...BAGGIER GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW 
LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.  PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY VALUES 
DO NOT INCREASE TO AROUND 1 UNTIL MON NGT AS DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY 
STREAMS NORTH AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING CUTOFF LOW IN CENTRAL PLAINS.  
CIMSS CRAS FORECAST SHOWS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS SPREADING INTO 
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE A BIT 
PREMATURE...HOWEVER SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE PERCENT OF MEASUREABLE 
PRECIPITATION DOES INCREASE TO OVER 40 PERCENT ON MONDAY.  WL LINGER 
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS 
UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY.  AT THIS POINT 
CONFIDENCE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE CONSIDERING INCONSISTENCIES ON 
UPPER LOW PLACEMENT IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...LAST OF STRATUS/STRATO CU DECK HAS LIFTED NE OF SRN WI. 
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOW LVL WIND SHEAR THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS 
AS SFC WINDS ARE DECOUPLING IN THE WEST WITH RGNL 88-D VAD WINDS AND 
PROFILERS STILL SHOWING 40-50KT NWLY WINDS AT 925 MB. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN THRU THE DAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS 
STATE. COULD SEE SOME MID/HI WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WITH RETURN 
SWLY FLOW LATER TODAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY 
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADV CRITERIA 
BY MID MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH SFC LO MOVING AWAY 
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN TODAY. THOUGH SOME 
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...INDICATIONS ARE 
STRENGTHENING SSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT TROF COULD PUSH WINDS AND 
WAVES BACK INTO ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE 
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME WITH MODEL VARIABILITY...SO WILL BEEF UP 
WORDING IN TEXT AND LEAVE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
MBK/REM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 260824
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
324 AM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WITH UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AREA. GFS/NAM HAS UPPER LOW MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...REACHING EASTERN ILLINOIS/WESTERN INDIANA
TONIGHT...BEFORE BEING PUSHED EAST BY UPSTREAM KICKER.

NAM SOUNDING HAVE HIGH RH FROM 850 TO 800 MB IMPLYING CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST
INDIANA/EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY REACH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FOR A TIME.


INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD
DIMINISH AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATES
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MAIN CLOUD AND PRECIP AREA MOVES INTO
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. CRAS MODEL SHOWS THESE
TRENDS VERY WELL. AS UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES UPPER LOW OFF TO THE
EAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE OFF. CRAS SHOWS STRATO CUMULUS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 06Z FOR A TIME...BUT UPSTREAM AREA OF STRATO CUMULUS MAY PUSH
INTO THE AREA AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

THEN A MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER FOR MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...

ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY BEFORE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA AND SOUTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP FROM
THIS SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW
THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ADVECTING N INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
MOISTURE PUSHES N WITH APPROACH OF SRN LOW.  ASSOC LIGHT RAIN ALSO A
POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.  MVFR VSBYS TO AROUND 4-5SM MAY
OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE LIGHT RAIN BANDS.  MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z SAT...THEN LIFT AS DRY AIR ARRIVES IN
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/DAVIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 261936
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
236 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS AT 19Z SHOW CLOSED LOW NR STL MAKING ITS MOVE
NEWD. INITIAL ISENTROPIC BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THAT PASSED OVER
SRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING SPINNING TOWARDS THE TWIN CITIES WITH A
LULL BEFORE STEADIER RAIN MOVES IN WITH CIRCULATION. LEADING EDGE OF
STEADY PRECIP SHIELD EXPECTED TO REACH WI/IL BORDER AROUND 01Z.

WHERE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE UPPER LOW TAP THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MOISTURE TO OUR EAST PROVIDING A GOOD SHOT OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF CWA...CURRENT VISIBILE AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING DRY WEDGE HAS CUT OFF THIS MOISTURE.
THIS WILL LIMIT BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO LOCATIONS THAT FALL
UNDER THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT CURRENT MODEL RUNS QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM WISCONSIN AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AHEAD OF
WAVE DROPPING TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND IS CAUGHT IN THE
UPPER FLOW.

THIS WILL KEEP WRN CWA IN CHC CATEGORY POPS...WITH LIKELYS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. SHOULD SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED POCKETS
OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF MAIN SHIELD. WILL PROVIDE A BIT BROADER AREAL
COVERAGE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN NAM QPF FORECASTS CLOSER TO GFS
QPF AND TO LOCATION OF ENHANCED CLOUDS INDICATED ON CRAS MODEL.

ALL PCPN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF ERN CWA OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY
MID-MORNING SATURDAY AS AXIS OF KICKER WAVE CROSSES STATE. SFC HI
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH CAA DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO SUB 0C
READINGS BY SUNDAY MORNING. OPTED TO SIDE TOWARDS COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY LOWS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...AND DRIER
MAV DEW POINTS FOR SUNDAY.

FORCING AND PCPN WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW PASSES WELL
TO THE NORTH MONDAY...WITH WAA DEVELOPING MONDAY...WARMING WRN CWA
INTO THE UPPER 50S.


.LONG TERM...
A MAINLY DRY EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. LONG TERM CHALLENGE REMAINS WITH STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE FORCING LOOKS TO
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE SHOWING
SOME DEEPENING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH 12Z GFS NOW
DROPPING QPF SWD WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY AS IT DROPS THRU SRN WI. WILL RE-INTRODUCE SLGT CHC POPS TO
THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH BROAD SFC
HI OVER THE SRN U.S. IMPEDING SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE. SFC TEMPS OFF BUFKIT FCST SNDGS AND GUIDANCE AGREE WITH
TEMPS REACHING THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT BRINGS +10 TO +12C 850 TEMPS OVER SRN WI.
COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND SHORTER DAYS WILL LIMIT MIXING OUT
FULLY TO 850 MB TEMPS. CLOUDS AND FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN DAY
WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN BELOW GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE GENERALLY
WENT WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN IL WILL MOVE NEWD TO LH BY 12Z SAT
AND CONTINUE INTO QUEBEC CANADA BY THE END OF THE DAY. LGT NLY SFC
WINDS WILL TURN NWLY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND AREAS OF IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN OVER SRN WI INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS AREAS
OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN WI BTWN 08Z AND 13Z
AS NWLY WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...THEREBY ENDING ANY
PCPN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF SAT WITH GUSTY
NWLY SFC WINDS BECMG LGT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

09/09/20

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 072103
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 PM CST WED NOV 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TRICKY PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT
AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...DYNAMIC AND FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
ACROSS CWA TONIGHT. COLD CLOUD TOPS AHEAD OF 18 UNITS OF 500
MILLIBAR VORTICITY OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA IN SYNC WITH DECENT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. CRAS FORECAST IR SATELLITE LOOP TRACKS
THIS COLD CLOUD TOP AREA ACROSS CWA TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF 30+
KNOT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 MILLIBARS AND 3 HOURLY 5 MILLIBAR
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE MIDDLE LEVEL PRECIPITATION AS AGREED BY ALL PROGS. MAIN
CONCERN IS DRY LOW LEVELS IN THE FORM OF LOW 20 SURFACE DEW
POINTS. TIME CROSS SECTIONS ALSO CONFIRM LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BELOW 850 MILLIBARS. PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES ARE AT BEST
0.4...AND ONLY NAM/NGM GO DRY OVERNIGHT WHILE WRF20/GFS HINT AT
PRECIPITATION. SO FEEL AT THE MOMENT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT ON THE LIGHT SIDE WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH A TRACE EVENT LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTH. WILL ALSO KEEP THE RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SNOW OVER THE NORTH AS FEEL THAT ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO
DRY LAYER WILL COOL TOWARD WET BULB READINGS. WITH SPEED OF SYSTEM
HAVE ALSO BROKE UP TIME OF ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION WITH QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AT ALL LEVELS AS PER GFS
SOLUTION. COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE WITH TIME AND SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO CHANCY RAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EARLIEST ARRIVAL FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. HARD TO FOCUS ON ANY ONE TIME PERIOD
TO GO HIGHER WITH RAIN CHANCES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION TNT. MODELS SATURATE ATMOSPHERE FROM
5 KFT AND ABOVE AND MAINTAIN A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH SOME
MOISTENING TOWARD CENTRAL WI. BELIEVE FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LGT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP BY MID EVENING AND CARRY OVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. VFR
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY PREVAIL ACROSS SRN WI WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS NORTH OF KMSN AND MKE NEAR KFLD AND KSBM. THE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS
SRN WI ON THU WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER WILL RANGE
FROM 4-5 KFT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...ZAJDEL
AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 211934
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
135 PM CST WED NOV 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST EMPHASIS ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT AND
THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT BLOSSOMING
SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SNOW TIED WITH POTENT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW IN VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHEAST KS.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IA.  THIS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
MID LEVEL 2-D FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS DEPICTED AT 18Z BY THE NAM.
THIS AREA WEAKENS BUT DOES MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN REST OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ALSO BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATING WEAK JET COUPLING AROUND 00Z OVER SRN WI...BUT AGAIN
THIS QUICKLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING.  MESOSCALE DYNAMICS
GROUP AT UOFMO-COLUMBIA PUSH THREAT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI...BUT SO FAR NO LIGHTNING REPORTED UPSTREAM IN
IA.  BEST CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FROM MINERAL
POINT TO JANESVILLE AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. CRAS IMAGERY CARRIES SRN
EDGE OF ENHANCED CLOUDS ACRS SRN WI THIS EVE AS WELL.

LITTLE CONTRIBUTION FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS PERTINENT THETA
LAYERS SHOWING MAINLY DOWNGLIDE IN THE 700-750MB LAYER THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  WITH QPF BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.20 EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SRN
WI THIS EVENING...AND SNOW RATIOS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 TO
1...THINKING WIDESPREAD ONE TO THREE INCH SNOWFALL LIKELY SRN THREE
TIERS OF COUNTIES.  LAKE MI COMPLICATES MATTERS IN EAST THIS
EVENING.  LAKE TEMPERATURES STILL 40 TO 45 DEGREES.  DELTA-T
INCREASING TO 14 DEGREES WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
LAKESHORE THIS EVENING.  ELEVATED CAPE OVER 100 J.  LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 06Z KEEPING BEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA JUST
OFF SHORE.  FOR NOW WL HOLD AT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS AS
WELL WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS AS RELATIVELY WARM LAKE AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES FAVORING MIX FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING
TIME OF BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. EVENING SHIFT WL NEED TO WATCH
THIS AREA CLOSELY.

EXPC HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MEASUREABLE SNOW TO CLIP WIND POINT.
SECONDARY MUCH WEAKER TROF MAY GENERATE FEW FLURRIES FARTHER INLAND
ON THURSDAY.  REST OF SHORT TERM PD BENIGN AT THIS POINT.

FOR EXTENDED FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EMPHASIS ON THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SUN NGT INTO MONDAY.  LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS AND GFS ENS
TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...MOVING FRM SRN PLAINS
INTO OH VLY.  LATEST RUN OF MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE POPS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT FOR MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION.  MEANWHILE HI RES ECMWF STILL
CLIPS FAR SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT PRECIP.  DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES IN
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS...WL LWER POPS TO SCHC MOST AREA BUT KEEP
30 PERCENT GOING IN SOUTHEAST.  PRECIP THREAT INCREASES LATE IN THE
WEEK AS LONG WAVE TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER WRN
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...LK FOR WDSPRD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THRU 12Z THUR. VSBYS
XPCTD FM 1-3SM IN RN/SN BCMG ALL -SN BY ARND 00Z. XPCT AREAS IFR
CONDS THRU 06Z. SN DIMNS TO SW-- BY ARND 10Z AS SYS MOVS EWD OF RGN.
CONDS IMPRV TO WDSPRD VFR WITH SCT MVFR CIGS AFT 14Z THRU.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. STRONG NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 10 FEET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
WIZ056>058-062>064-067>070.
SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ052-059-060-065-066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
11/35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 250927
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY-
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW BURIED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO APPEARS TO BE
READING TO GET KICKED TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN STATES HAS TEMPORARILY PUSHED DEEP MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST OF WISCONSIN.

MODELS SHOW WEAK WAVE AND SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIP
MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE CAN BE SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER KANSAS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN.

MEANWHILE MODIS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS BLOB OF STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS PROBABLY ADVECTION RELATED
AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVE ACROSS
THINNING SNOW FIELD. SHOULD ERODE BY MIDDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THEREAFTER.

TONIGHT-
UPPER LOW ACCELERATES ACROSS TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. A WEAK COL
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH WEAK WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING...SHOULD BE DECENT RADIATION NIGHT.

MONDAY-
TREND OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SURFACE LOW TRACK FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. 03Z SREF HAS LOW TRACKING FROM NEAR MEMPHIS TO
PITTSBURG PA DURING THE DAY. MEASURABLE PRECIP IN MOST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE BARELY CLIPS THE KENOSHA AREA. CRAS MODEL SHOWS DEEPEST
AND COLDEST CLOUD SHIELD STAYING SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.

CUT MOS POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH PREFERENCE FOR MUCH DRIER
NAM. THESE DEFORMATION ZONES HAVE A SHARP CUTOFF AND GUT FEELING
IS THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL NOT GET MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
CHICAGO.

TUESDAY-
FAST WESTERLY FLOW RESUMES...WITH LEE TROUGH FORMING IN EASTERN
COLORADO. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN MAY
RESULT IN MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY-
TIMING ISSUES ABOUND. GFS IS FASTEST AND HAS SURFACE LOW NEAR
SHEBOYGAN. NAM...ECMWF...AND GFSENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND RANGE
FROM IOWA TO NEBRASKA. LEANED SLOWER...THOUGH EVEN FASTER GFS
SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR PRECIP NORTH OF WARM FRONT AND WELL NORTH OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THUS...CUT POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH OVERALL SYSTEM TRACK NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH
LOW TRACK TO THE NORTH GFS HAS BROAD AND MODERATELY STRONG 500 MB
HEIGHT FALL CENTER GOING BY TO THE SOUTH WITH CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN WAVE OF FRONT. ECMWF HAS ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID POST FRONTAL SO COULD GET SOME LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY-
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE POLAR RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
QUIET BUT COOL WEATHER. SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -10C FORECAST ON AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS DUE TO ADVECTION OF HIER DEW POINT AIR OVER
REMNANT SNOW FIELD EXPECTED TO CLEAR MSN AROUND 13Z AND THIN/ERODE
OVER MKE BY 16Z. GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES PASSING TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TO THE NORTH AND HI PRES
TO THE SE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE SSWLY WINDS THRU THE DAY...THEN
BECOME WRLY AND SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS THRU 12Z
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND HI PRESSURE TO THE SE
WILL KEEP MODERATE SSWLY WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES THRU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY EASE DURING THE EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...CRAVEN/02
AVIATION/MARINE...09

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 172022
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
222 PM CST MON DEC 17 2007

.SHORT TERM...

MODIS 1 KM SNOW/ICE IMAGE DID AN EXCELLENT JOB DEPICTING STRATUS
OVER THE SNOW FIELD. MUCH OF THE SHORT FORECAST PROBLEM WILL DEAL
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER/STRATUS ISSUES.

DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS CRAS FORECAST IMAGERY SEEMS TO GIVE HINT AT
STRATUS MODEL DISTRIBUTION WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER CLEAR AREAS. AS
SUCH CRAS WAS A LITTLE SLOW IN DISSIPATING STRATUS.

NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION IN LOWEST 500 FT. HOWEVER WITH
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS...DOUBT FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS NO INDICATION OF STRATUS...SO WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT
BELOW GFS MOS. CRAS MODEL HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
PRECLUDE ANY INFO ON STRATUS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CRAS DOES INDICATE A MORE WESTWARD STRATUS DECK TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER MUCH OF WI...E MN AND FAR E IA.
COLDER TEMPS OVER CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER TO THE WEST OF THIS.
THE STRATUS IS PICKED UP WITH NAM/ETA MOS...BUT GFS MOS DOES NOT
HAVE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME FLIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
MENTION SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN AND GO WITH MAINLY STRATUS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THEN A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF VERY SIMILAR WITH A MORE OPEN TROF...WITH
GFS STILL SHOWING MORE OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH.
ECMWF SPREADS MORE QPF NORTH...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN YESTERDAY...UP
TO 0.08 INCH ACROSS THE IL BORDER...WITH SOME QPF EVEN ACROSS OUR
NORTH AREAS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND THE LESSER GFS PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...

STRONG DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS
HAVING A LOW TRACK THAT WOULD PUT A RAIN SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...OR
JUST RAIN AT LEAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST. WILL ADJUST PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
GRIDS. WITH THIS TRACK SIGNIFICANT SNOW WOULD BE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ECMWF/GFS AND EVEN DGEX IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR STRATUS DECK FINALLY ERODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH MIXING OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE THIN DECK. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
VORTICITY MAXIMUM.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
TUESDAY POSSIBLE...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND
SHALLOW MIXING OF 22 TO 25 KNOT WINDS POSSIBLE. OFFSHORE FLOW
SUGGESTS HIGHEST WAVES WOULD BE TOWARDS THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...06
AVIATION/MARINE...08

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 181934
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
134 PM CST TUE DEC 18 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER AND POTENTIAL STRATUS ISSUES.

NAM 925 MB RH DOES RATHER WELL IN DEPICTING CURRENT STRATUS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. NAM EXPANDS THIS TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z...THEN DISSIPATES IT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NAM SOUNDINGS AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION IN LOWEST 2000 FT
THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GFS MOS
GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE ANY INDICATION OF STRATUS...BUT NAM/ETA MOS
DOES. CRAS DOES INDICATE A MORE WESTWARD STRATUS DECK THIS
EVENING...WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER MUCH OF WI...E AND CENTRAL MN AND E
HALF OF IA. COLDER TEMPS OVER CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER TO THE
WEST OF THIS. IF THIS IS A STRATUS INDICATOR...IT APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE.

THEN A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF NOW VERY SIMILAR WITH
A MORE OPEN TROF...AND PRERCIP AMOUNTS ARE NOW SIMILAR...AROUND
0.05 INCH.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE INITIALLY DURING DAY THURSDAY...THEN MID LEVELS
DRY LEAVING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH TEMP PROFILE CONDUCIVE TO
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

.LONG TERM...

SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WEAK WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
WITH STRATUS MOST LIKELY IN THE AREA. CONCERN THEN BECOMES STRONG
SHORTWAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THAT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED. HPC PREFERS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION...AND THIS IS ALSO IN
LINE WITH THE OFT MALIGNED 06Z DGEX.  THIS TAKES SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGING RAIN TO EASTERN WI ON SAT
INTO SAT EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER 12Z ECMWF MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z GFS...
ALTHOUGH JUST A LITTLE SLOWER...WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURING
LATER...WITH A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK. AS EXPECTED THERE WILL BE RUN
TO RUN VARIABILITIES WITH THE TRACK.

EVEN IF SUFACE LOW GOES FARTHER SOUTH...IT APPEARS ENOUGH WARM
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST A RAIN MIX IN ERN WI FOR SAT
INTO SAT EVENING. AN EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR WITH
IT OCCURRING SOONER IF LOW TAKES A MORE SRN TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LLVL INVRSN DVLPG AFT 00Z WL LRGLY DISPT BY 12Z. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WL DVLP UNDER INVRSN ACRS SRN WI BTWN 00-03Z. XPCT CIGS
010-020 AND VSBYS 3-5SM IN BR. CONDS IMPRV TO WDSPRD VFR CONDS AFT
12Z AND CONT THRU 00Z THUR.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...KOCHIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 032104
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM...NGM/NAM/SREF/GFS/WRF L & 20/ECMWF HI-RES PROGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DOUBLE SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING REGION. PROGS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
TAKING FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY THROUGH CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
COMBINATION OF EXCELLENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACCOMPANIED BY 25 UNIT 500 MILLIBAR VORTICITY TO SLIDE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO FALL ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CRAS PROGGED SATELLITE LOOP ON THE MONEY WITH
THIS FEATURE AND SHARPENS BACK EDGE OF SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. BEST AREA TO SEE MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE
ALONG WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER AND SOUTHEAST CORNER SO HAVE KEPT
HIGH SNOW CHANCES THERE WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT PROGS GO INTO A LULL WITH PRECIPITATION AS MID LEVELS DRY
OUT...SO TRIMMED PRECIPITATION TO CHANCY LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS 290 ISENTROP SHOWS DECENT UP GLIDE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY FOR EARLY PORTION OF TONIGHT THEN
RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOWARD MORNING.

.LONG TERM...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PROGS TIME CROSS SECTIONS
MAINTAIN DECENT MID LEVEL DRYING THROUGH MORNING HOURS MONDAY. BUT
CONTINUE WARM AIR ADVECTION ESPECIALLY IN LOWER LAYERS PROMPTS A
CHANCY POTPOURRI OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS PER BUFKIT OUTPUT. LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS IN THE MORNING REDUCE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF
HEADLINES SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. MONDAY AFTERNOON HAS BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN AS
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH DECENT SURGE OF WARM AIR. BUT RAPID
PASSAGE OF SURFACE LOW INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR DRY SLOT AND AGAIN REDUCED AMOUNT OF QPF. THUS
CONCERNS FOR RIVERS AN STREAM FLOODING ALSO REDUCED AS OF NOW.

.LONG LONG TERM...SECONDARY LOW STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG OHIO
RIVER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
AS PROGS HAVE HAD TROUBLE TIMING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IN
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCY SNOW
MENTION FOR CWA WITH BETTER SNOW CHANCES TOWARD SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS. THEN A SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL MSTR WL CONT ADVCTG INTO SRN WI THRU 00Z TUE. MID
LLVL MSTR HWVR WL BE LMTD. XPCT CONTD IFR CIGS THRU 00Z TUE. MVFR
VSBYS WL LWR TO IFR CAT IN -SN THIS EVNG AND CONT THRU 00Z TUE.
PATCHY -FZDZ AND -IP ARE PSBL AFT 06Z TNGT THRU 12Z MON. LK FOR
AREAS -RA LTR MON MRNG THRU 00Z TUE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...17
AVIATION/MARINE...35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 042102
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
302 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT SHORT TERM...WEATHER EXPECTED TO BE QUIET OVERNIGHT AS LULL
EXISTS DUE TO ABSENCE OF SHORT WAVE TO TRIGGER ANY PRECIPITATION.
EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES...SOME FOG AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS DRY AIR IN MID LAYERS TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE FROM NGM/NAM/SREF/GFS/WRF20/ECMWF
HI-RES PROGS POINT TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR CWA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. HAVE
UPGRADED WINTER STORM WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ENTIRE CWA
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF EXPECTED HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TO JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...PROGS ALL DEVELOP PAN HANDLE
TYPE LOW TO RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG FRONT AND INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
TAP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WITH EXPECTED QPF VALUES TO APPROACHING
1 INCH OF LIQUID BY THE TIME THE STORMS EXITS AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TYPICALLY THIS PATH WOULD FAVOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH
SWATH OF HEAVIEST SNOW. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS FROM MODELS SHOW
VERY FAVORABLE DENDRITE BAND AND CROSS HAIRS CONFIGURATION SETS UP
ALONG AXIS FROM LAFAYETTE COUNTY NORTHEAST TO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY
DURING HEIGHT OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL FROM 03Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THUS FORECAST 6 TO 10 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS EXPANDED TO THE
NORTHWEST AS A WIDER THAN NORMAL HEAVY SNOW BAND IS INDICATED. FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CWA WILL ALSO GET ENOUGH SNOW ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS MAKE STORM CRITERIA. CRAS PROGGED SATELLITE IR LOOP
CONFIRMS THIS TREND WITH COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OVER CWA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CWA EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW RATIOS
AROUND 13:1 WHILE HEAVY WET SNOW RATIOS OF 10:1 OR 8:1 ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE FORECAST LOW TRACK...CWA
REMAINS IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 925 MILLIBARS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MIXING
DOWN TO SURFACE ACROSS CWA.

.LONG TERM...STILL LOOKING AT A SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL MSTR WL RMN TRAPPED UNDER INVRSN THRU 00Z WED. LOOK
FOR WDSPRD IFR CIGS...WDSPRD MVFR VSBYS AND AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN
LGT FOG THRU THE PD.

.MARINE...SCA CRITERIA WL NO LONGER BE MET BY MIDNIGHT...BUT WINDS
WL TURN NELY TUE AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG LOW PRES SYS...AND INCRS TO
15-25 KNOTS BY EVNG. XPCT SCA CRITERIA TO BE MET BY LATE TUE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...17
AVIATION/MARINE...35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 052110
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE SNOWSTORM FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM...NGM/NAM/SREF/GFS/WRF20/ECMWF HI-RES PROGS CONTINUE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH TREND OF APPROACHING SEVERE WINTER
STORM. TIMING FOR ONGOING WARNING LOOKS ON THE MONEY. COMBINATION
OF INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LATEST PROG RUNS AND SLIDING
SCALE OF SNOW RATIOS FROM THE 8:1 TO 10:1 RANGE AT STORM/S
BEGINNING TO EVENTUALLY 13:1 TOWARD STORM/S END GIVES CONFIDENCE
TO RAISE OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A FEW INCHES ACROSS CWA. THE 14
TO 18 INCHES FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL BE NEAR RECORD
FOR A 24 HOUR AMOUNT. IN ADDITION...EVALUATION OF HI RES WRF-G
PROG POINTS TO POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CWA. WITH INTRODUCTION OF CONVECTION
INTO FORECAST HAVE INDICATED THAT LOCAL SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. ALSO
EVALUATION OF LAKE SNOW ENHANCEMENT FLOW CHART POINTS TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS BE ADDED TO LAKE SHORE COUNTIES. THUS HAVE
INCREASED FINAL TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ALONG SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ADDED NEAR BLIZZARD WORDING FOR
LAKE SHORE COUNTIES FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUFKIT AND 925 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL WINDS APPROACHING 40
KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING HEIGHT OF STORM. STORM HAS TAPPED
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WITH EXPECTED QPF VALUES NOW EXPECTED TO
BE JUST OVER 1 INCH OF LIQUID BY THE TIME THE STORMS EXITS AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PROGS HAVE SHIFTED PATH OF STORM SLIGHTLY TO
NORTHWEST BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE AXIS OF EXPECTED HEAVY SNOW.
MODELS STILL SHOWING VERY FAVORABLE DENDRITE BAND AND CROSS HAIRS
CONFIGURATION SETS UP ALONG AXIS FROM LAFAYETTE COUNTY NORTHEAST
TO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY DURING HEIGHT OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL FROM 03Z
WEDNESDAY TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. THUS A WIDER THAN NORMAL HEAVY SNOW
BAND IS INDICATED. CRAS PROGGED SATELLITE IR LOOP MAINTAINS
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OVER CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...STILL LOOKING AT A SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. PLUNGE OF VERY COLD AIRMASS ALSO EXPECTED
FOR WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO DROP THIS EVE AS INITIAL
SLUG OF SN WORKS INTO SRN WI. WILL TREND DOWN TO LIFR CIGS WITH
SUSTAINED VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AS HVY SN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
TNGT INTO WED MRNG. NNE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. HIGHER GUSTS PSBL AT KMKE.

.MARINE...WITH STG LOW WINDING UP AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...NNE
WINDS WILL EASILY BE AT SCA LEVELS INTO WED WITH DIMINISHING TREND
FOR WED NGT. HIGH WAVES EXPECTED WITH THE FAVORABLE NNE FETCH.
WILL GO WITH A GALE WARNING FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...17
AVIATION/MARINE...10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 231330 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
730 AM CST SAT FEB 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER WILL SLIDE SEWD
TODAY WITH LGT WLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD
PUT AN END TO LAKE CLOUDS OVER FAR SE WI AND SRN LM. OTHERWISE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LS WILL DIVE SEWD INTO MI TODAY WITH LITTLE
CLOUD COVER FOR THE AREA. THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN BETWEEN THE
NRN POLAR JET STREAM IN CANADA AND THE SRN STREAM OVER THE SRN USA
THROUGH SUN AM.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING CA WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE SW USA ON SUN. THIS WILL ACT AS A KICKER AND SEND THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER MT AND WY EWD INTO WI AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE FOR SUN AFT AND EVENING. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ON
SUN AHEAD OF THE WEAK WAVE WITH A 30 KT WLY LLJ AND 850 MB TEMPS
WARMING TO 0C TO 2C. EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLDS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
AND WAA BUT LOW LEVEL RH PROGS AND MET GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE ADVECTION UP THE HIGH PLAINS GETS
CUT OFF TNT THEN REDEVELOPS ON SUN BUT MAGNITUDE IS WEAK WHILE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY STRATUS. WILL FCST PTLY CLDY
SUN/SUN EVENING AND COUNT ON SUNSHINE WHEN DETERMINING HIGH TEMPS
FOR SUN.

.LONG TERM...
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW USA ON SUN WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN
CO AND SRN WY SUN NT AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN OR CENTRAL IL MON NT.
GFS...NAM...SREF AND CRAS MODELS PINPOINT SRN WI WITH LIFT AND
QPF AS CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL IN MON NT.
ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH WITH LOW AND THUS LESS LIFT AND QPF. WILL
STILL MAINTAIN MORE OF A NLY SOLUTION FOR THE FCST. STRONG MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND LIFT PROGGED IN THE DENDRITE ZONE OVER
THE REGION FROM LATE MON MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. A COMPROMISE
OF THE MODELS WOULD INITIALLY BISECT THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AND THEN TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH. COULD INITIALLY HAVE SOME FREEZING RAIN
MON AM AS LGT WINDS AND PTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUN EVENING MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO MID TO UPPER 20S...BUT QUICKLY WARM INTO THE
LOWER 30S TOWARD SUNRISE MON WHEN CLOUDS AND PCPN ARRIVES. A 4 TO
8 INCH SNOWFALL FCST IS REASONABLE FOR NOW GIVEN MIXING RATIOS
AROUND 3 G/KG. WILL CONTINUE SPS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES 3 TO 5 MILES IN
FOG ACROSS AREA WITH LOCAL LIFR VISIBILITIES AROUND 3/4 MILE IN FOG
ESPECIALLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 14Z...THEN
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
CORRECTION IN LONG TERM PARAGRAPH FOR DATES.
SHORT/LONG TERM...20
AVIATION/MARINE...17

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 262000
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND WEATHER TREND THROUGH WEEKEND. 

.SHORT TERM...NGM/NAM/GFS/ECMWF/WRF PROGS ALL TRENDING TO SIMILAR
SOLUTION REGARDING SNOWFALL FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN. PROGS PRETTY MUCH ZERO IN ON
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER FOR BEST AXIS OF SNOWFALL STARTING LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. CRAS SATELLITE MODEL AREA OF BEST
CLOUD ENHANCEMENT IN SYNC WITH GFS/NAM PROGS TO PRODUCE A BURST OF
SNOW OVER CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT THEN A MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS
SECONDARY SNOW BURST FROM AFTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON RAISES
CONCERNS ABOUT MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER
BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE TONIGHT AND IS MINIMIZED AFTER
12Z THURSDAY. SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES OVER CWA FAIRLY
WEAK DURING THURSDAY WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE OVER ILLINOIS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD NAM/WRF/NGM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS TOWARD WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER IN A SOMEWHAT
LONG DURATION FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS WILL BE A
BETTER SOLUTION ONLY IF STRENGTH AND DURATION OF ITS FRONTOGENESIS
FIELDS TAKES PLACE THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MORE EFFICIENT SNOW
FALL PRODUCTION. THEN SNOW AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE A COUPLE OF
INCHES.

.LONG TERM...EARLY PART OF WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AT THE MOMENT AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIVES ACROSS CWA FROM THE NORTH. RAPID RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BY SATURDAY INSURES THAT DECENT MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD. GFS
BRINGS DECENT BATCH OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION INTO CWA
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
MOMENT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF CWA AND
NOT AGGRAVATE FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEST TO EAST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD 
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TNT THROUGH THU. SNOW 
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER 
SRN WI LATE WED EVENING THROUGH THU. VFR CONDITIONS WED AFT INTO 
EARLY EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ONCE THE 
SNOW BEGINS AROUND 03Z TO 05Z AND LAST THROUGH THU.  

&&

.MARINE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING PARALLEL WITH THE OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY THU NT AND FRI AM MAY ALLOW NELY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 
20 KTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. 


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...17
AVIATION/MARINE...20

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 310221
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
920 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AND TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC 
ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.  
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS OVER EASTERN KS INTO 
WESTERN MO EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF SHORT 
WAVE TROUGH FARTHER WEST OVER NE/KS BORDER.  HENCE STILL EXPECT 
AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE 
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CRAS FORECAST IR IMAGERY CARRIES COLDER CLOUD 
TOPS ACROSS SRN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LET FLOOD WATCH BEGIN AT 09Z 
IN SOUTHWEST...BUT MOST LIKELY FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 
LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING WHEN STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING 
EXPECTED.

LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM...MOIST AIR FLOWING ACROSS COOL 
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN PRODUCING AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER NEARSHORE 
AREAS...PER LATEST WEBCAMS.  LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW PATCHY 
DENSE FOG TO MOVE INLAND ONCE WINDS PICK UP DURING THE 
NIGHT...HOWEVER LEANING AGAINST DENSE FOG ADVY ATTM DUE TO INCRG 
WINDS AND LIKLIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT...AS 3 HOURS OF 
ONE QUARTER MILE QUESTIONABLE. ALREADY ADDED FOG TO GRIDS/ZONES 
EARLY IN THE EVENING. 

&&

.MARINE...ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVY FOR NEARSHORE UNTIL 12Z/31. LIGHT 
WINDS THIS EVENING AND RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER 
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE EAST RESULTING IN OPTIMAL CONDITIONS 
FOR DENSE FOG.  INCREASING NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND AN 
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT SHOULD CAUSE THE 
AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO BEGIN TO THIN.  

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR 
     WIZ046-047-051-052-057>060-064>066-070>072.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT         
     FOR WIZ056-062-063-067>069.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z/31 LMZ643>646.
&&

$$
MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 301953
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
253 PM CDT WED APR 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM...DRY LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT FEEDING INTO
CWA FROM RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD KEEP CWA DRY
OVERNIGHT. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
ROCKIES. GULF OF MEXICO OPEN FOR BUSINESS AS DEEP MOISTURE
REFLECTED BY 60+ DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO SURGE NORTHWARD. EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SWIFT LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTH ASSURE THAT THIS
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO CWA AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM ROCKIES LOW EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WILL BE A KEY FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT ACTS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION FOR CWA WITH TIME. NGM/NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF HI RES
PROGS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM EVOLUTION BUT
DIFFERENCES EXISTS WITH PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT IN RELATION TO
CWA. CLOSEST CONSENSUS WITH PLACEMENT OF FIRST ROUND OF EAST/WEST
ORIENTATED BAND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN IS WITH HPC AND ECMWF HI
RES AS OTHER PROGS APPEAR TO BE SKIMPY WITH QPF AT THE ONSET. THIS
BAND LIES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA IN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN FORECAST FOR THAT
AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THEN MORE INTERESTING ROUND OF WEATHER IN STORE FOR
CWA FRIDAY AS ALL PROGS ALLOW SYSTEM NOW MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO OCCLUDE WITH TIME. BUT DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS PROGS
DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ACCOMPANYING THIS OCCLUSION WHICH
PUSHES ALONG WARM FRONT. THE SHORT WAVE WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS
DRIVEN BY AN IMPRESSIVE DRY INTRUSION FROM 700 MILLIBARS AND PROGS
TIME THIS FEATURE TO MOVE INTO CWA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY PROGS SHOWING MORE DESTABILIZING OF AIR MASS IN CWA
WITH EACH RUN. THIS IS REFLECTED QUITE WELL WITH CRAS IR PROG WHICH
SHOWS EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION ALONG DRY INTRUSION AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
GFS SHOWS BAND OF CONVECTION CONTAINING EFFICIENCY VALUES OF
AROUND 1.35. WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF ALMOST 1.50 INCHES) BEFORE THIS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO BECOMING HIGHER AND AGAIN
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE'S ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT...AND FINAL POSITION OF WARM FRONT WHERE
THE TRIPLE POINT WOULD BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. PROGS
THEN PULL WEATHER SYSTEM TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME AS IT SWINDS
AROUND RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA. WILL KEEP
LINGERING SHOWERS IN FORECAST THROUGH MAINLY SATURDAY BEFORE QUIET
WEATHER RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NO CIGS AT THE OUTSET AS INFLUENCE OF DRY HIGH STILL 
STRONG. INFLUENCE OF H8 WAA WILL INCREASE MID DECK CLOUD COVER WITH 
TIME TNGT. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD BETWEEN NAM AND GFS MOS FOR CIG 
TRENDS THU MRNG. GFS LOOKS TOO SATURATED TOO QUICKLY IN THE LOWEST 
LAYERS...NAM SLOWER ON SATURATION AND FOR NOW LOOKS MORE REASONABLE 
SO STEERED IN THAT DIRECTION. WHILE ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN 
12-18Z THUR TIME FRAME CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE NOT 
HIGH ENUF FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...17
AVIATION/MARINE...10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 070208 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
908 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

.UPDATE...HAVE BEEFED UP WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS
IOWA COMPLEX CONTINUES AN EASTERLY MOVEMENT WHILE IR SATELLITE
PICTURES MAINTAINING CORE OF COLD TOPS AROUND -62C. CRAS IR
SOLUTION ZEROES IN ON THIS COMPLEX QUITE WELL AND ACTUALLY PROGS
CLOUD TOPS TO COOL DURING NIGHTTIME HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS CWA.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT STABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CWA MOISTURE HAS BEEN RETURNING WITH AID OF 30 KNOTS LOW LEVEL
JET AND RUC PROG FOR LOW LEVEL WINDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...17
AVIATION/MARINE...17

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 181950
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR EXTENDED DRY PERIOD IN
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. 

.SHORT TERM...COLD H5 TEMPS -25C TO -27C WITH ASSOCIATED CU FIELD AND ISOLD 
-SHRA...ALL THIS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. WINDS EXPECTED 
TO SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY...AND THIS IN CONCERT WITH DEW POINTS IN 
MANY LOCALES DOWN INTO THE 30S...SEE NO REASON TO TWEAK GOING FROST 
IN GRIDS FOR LATER TNGT.

.LONG TERM...GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF HI RES PROGS ALL IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH SWIFT MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AFFECTING CWA MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE REFLECTION IS
SUBTLE...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH ENERGY
WITH POOLING OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISING TO 0.80 INCH) TO KEEP LIKELY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING
IN FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT. CRAS IR SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTS TIGHT
CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CWA MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PROGS AND HPC
EXCEPT GFS POINTING TO BETTER RAIN AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
CWA WITH GFS FAVORING EASTERN PORTIONS. SO WILL BROAD BRUSH AREA
WITH SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES.

.LONG LONG TERM...NAM HINTS AT...AND GFS/ECMWF HI RES PROGS BOTH
AGREE THAT HUDSON BAY HIGH DRIVES SOUTH OVER GREAT LAKES REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATES WEATHER PATTERN OVER CWA FOR
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST AS HIGH
FEEDS DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS INTO REGION. THE HIGH ALSO BLOCKS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WESTERN U.S. UNTIL THE
HIGH PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF CWA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY AS COOL EAST WINDS ARE COUNTERED BY AMPLE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN VFR CU EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. GUSTY NW 
WINDS INLAND AND NE NEAR THE LAKE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN THIS EVENING. 
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME LATE MORNING SCT CU ON 
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY 
AS SHORT WAVE APPCHS IN NW UPPER FLOW. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...17
AVIATION/MARINE...10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 211954
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
254 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2008

.SHORT TERM...

GFS AND ECMWF VERY SIMILAR WITH UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...UPPER RIDGE
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SECOND UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. MODELS HAVE ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.  A WEAK WEST TO EAST TROUGH OF LOW 
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL WI WILL SHIFT E-SEWD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL SEE CLOUD COVER INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN
THE EAST BUT TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION. CRAS MODEL TAKES SOME MID
CLOUDS MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF WATERTOWN. AFT 06Z SKIES BECOME MO CLEAR
WITH A HIGH PRES RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE. THIS ALSO SEEN ON
CRAS AS MID CLOUDS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST.  SEE NO REASON WHY LOW
TEMPS WONT BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND ADDED PATCHY FROST AWAY
FROM LAKE MI.

A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW...
ROTATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS BRING SOME
QPF CLOSE TO AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF MADISON FRIDAY...NOT FROM
THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT FROM THE LOW OVER COLORADO.
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR BELOW 10 THSD FT. MOST
MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS.   

UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO REACH WISCONSIN SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BEGINS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE WESTERN TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TO STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES OFF
TO THE WEST. 

WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS BRINGS SOUTH SURFACE WINDS...INCREASING DEW POINTS...AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 

AS SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...A
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO MEMORIAL DAY. 


.LONG TERM...

WEAKER WEST FLOW TUESDAY AS MAIN TROUGH STAYS TO THE WEST. THEN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN WEDNESDAY...A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ON ECMWF.

SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BY THURSDAY AS ECMWF FLATTENS RIDGE QUICKER
WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH GFS KEEPING MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. 

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK WEST TO EAST PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH 
SRN WI THIS AFT AND EARLY EVENING. ATM IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN AND 
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER MN 
AND IA WILL THEN MOVE INTO WI AFT 06Z TNT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION 
INTO FRI. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...O6/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...20/GEHRING

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 302019
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...IMMEDIATE CONCERNS FOCUS ON CONVECTION THREAT TONIGHT 
AND SMALL CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVER WEEKEND.  EMPHASIS THEN 
SHIFTS TO PROLONGED THREAT OF CONVECTION DURING EXTENDED PERIOD. 

.VERY SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/.

EVAPORATING MOISTURE HAS PUSHED SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO 
MIDDLE 60S WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING HAS TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 
80. SURFACE LIFTED INDICIES HAVE DROPPED TO -2 TO -5 WHILE MUCAPE 
HAS INCREASED TO 1000 JOULES IN CENTRAL CWA.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
HOWEVER IS MINIMAL AS INCREASING MIXING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD 
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER AREA OF ENHANCED 
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT SRN 
WISCONSIN NEXT 12 HOURS.  FIRST SHORT WAVE OVER WEST CENTRAL 
WISCONSIN ATTM AS PICKED UP BY KARX/KMPX EXPECTED TO TRIGGER 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION NEXT FEW HOURS.  0 TO 6KM BULK 
SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE INTO THE EVENING WITH VALUES OF 40KTS OR 
MORE.  FARTHER UPSTREAM...SECOND MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TRIGGERING 
SEVERE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN.  MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE 
SYSTEM MAINTENANCE FAIRLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS 
COMPLEX.  IN ADDITION...WRF 4KM HOTSTART USHERS IN SMALL CONVECTIVE 
SYSTEM INTO SRN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AS WELL AND CRAS FORECAST 
SHOWS SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED COLD CLOUD TOPS SPREADING OVER SRN WI 
AS WELL. HENCE SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.

TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIPITATION THREAT ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER SHORT 
TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON PULLING COMPACT SHORT WAVE 
AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT.  
LINGERING INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY BUT VERY WEAK AND LACK OF FOCUSING 
MECHANISM.  WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW BUT FUTURE 
SHIFTS CAN LOOK TO REMOVE SUNDAY POPS IF SATURDAY NIGHT EVENT 
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/.

GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR EARLY NEXT 
WEEK WHILE HI RES ECMWF EXHIBITING MUCH BETTER CONSISTENCY.  HENCE 
WL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON ECMWF WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH 
CANADIAN AND UKMT.  GFS 500MB ENSEMBLES IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MUCH MORE CHAOTIC IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  

ALL EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THEN 
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR MON/MON NGT TIME PERIOD SO WILL EITHER 
DECREASE POPS OR ELIMINATE PENDING LATEST GUIDANCE.  MAY ALSO NEED 
TO DECREASE POPS FOR TUE IN LATER PERIODS IF HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
GTLAKES TURNS OUT TO BE MORE EXTENSIVE AS SHOWN BY ECMWF.  

LATER NEXT WEEK...EVEN ECMWF HAVING TROUBLE WITH AMPLITUDE AND 
MOVEMENT OF TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN CONUS...HENCE EVEN 
MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THU/FRI PERIOD.  ECMWF INDICATING STRONG 
WARMING FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON WARMING 
TEMPERATURES FOR NOW AS CANADIAN AND UKMT NOT SHOWING AS MUCH 
AMPLITUDE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH.  

COMMONALITY BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS STRENGTHENING 
BAROCLINIC ZONE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK JUST SOUTH OF WISCONSIN ARCING 
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HENCE NEED TO CONTINUE SMALL 
POPS THROUGH BULK OF EXTENDED PERIOD.  ECMWF PUSHES BAROCLINIC ZONE 
TO THE NORTH WHILE GFS HOLDS ON TO THE SOUTH.

GFS 5 DAY MEAN 500MB HEIGHT SHOWING TRANSITION TAKING PLACE DURING 
THE FIRST DAYS OF JUNE OF CLOSE TO NORMAL ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS 
NORTHERN CONUS TO A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PATTERN BY 00Z/09.  
HOWEVER 500MB MEANS REMAIN NEAR ZONAL TO SLIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST.  
HENCE INDICATING UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF 
NEXT WEEK AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN OF LATE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. MVFR 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON 
AT KMSN...AND SHOULD DEVELOP SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AT KMKE AND KENW. 
GUSTY AND STRONG WAKE LOW WINDS OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS NOT 
EXPECTED TO IMPACT KENW...AS ISOLLABARIC GRADIENT MAINLY IN THAT 
AREA. 

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF KMSN...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR 
NOW. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE 
TROUGH AND 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSAGE. WILL MAINTAIN VFR 
VICINITY WORDING FOR THUNDER IN TAFS. 

&&

.MARINE...WAKE LOW WINDS OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS BROUGHT 50 KNOT 
GUSTS AT THE WAUKEGAN ILLINOIS GLERL SITE EARLIER TODAY. PER 
AVIATION DISCUSSION ABOVE...DID NOT SEE ANY VERIFICATION OF THESE 
WINDS GETTING INTO THE WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS LAKE 
ZONE. SO...WILL JUST MONITOR FOR THE REST OF TODAY. 

WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY HAVE BEEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOST PART...AS CLOUDS AND COOL WATERS HAVE 
BEEN KEEPING MIXING IN CHECK. AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF 
THE AREA...THERE MAY BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING NEAR THE 
SHORELINE BEFORE SUNSET. WILL LEAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 
6 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ISSUANCE FOR 
NOW. 

&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVY TIL 23Z/30 LMZ643>646.

$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...11
AVIATION/MARINE........08

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 241959
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
259 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON DEVELOPING WET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH END OF WEEK.

.TONIGHT...TRICKY FCST FOR TNGT. IMPRESSIVE LOOKING VORT CENTER ACRS ERN NEB.
MODELS BRING THIS TO ERN IA/NW IL BY 12Z WED. IN ADDITION H8 WAA AND MOIST
ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT. NAM SUGGESTS SRN CWA TO BE GRAZED
BY MCS PASSING LARGELY TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE LAST RUN WITH SPREADING QPF ACRS ENTIRE CWA.
NAM SOUNDINGS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED CAPE HOWEVER GFS
SHOWS ABOUT 1K CAPE DEVELOPING. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH CHC AFT
MIDNIGHT CWA WIDE WITH HIGHER CHANCES TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS BORDER.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
GFS/NAM/NGM/CANADIAN PROGS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNALS THAT A
POTENTIALLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL AFFECT REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
QUESTION OF DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH IS NOT FAR AWAY...
BECOMING RESOLVED ALTHOUGH NAM STILL INSISTS THAT 75 DEGREE DEW
POINTS WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY...SEEMS OVERDONE. NONETHELESS MIDDLE
60 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA ARE
FORECAST TO SWING TOWARD REGION WITH TIME. LOW LEVEL 1000/850
MILLIBAR LAYER PROGS FEED INCREASING MOISTURE INTO CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING FROM 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES RANGE BY FRIDAY. PERIODIC WEAK TO AT TIMES MODERATE LOW
LEVEL JETS NOSING TOWARD CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FOCUS
CONVECTION ON ANY BOUNDARIES LINGERING IN WEAK SURFACE PATTERN.
SHARP THETA E RIDGE AND CORFIDI VECTORS SIGNALING BACK BUILDING
STORMS STILL IN PLAY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IT IS DIFFICULT TO ZERO IN ON ANY ONE AREA
FOR FORMATION OF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DUE TO COMBINATION OF
WEAK SURFACE FEATURES AND SUBTLE SHORT WAVES IN MIDDLE AND UPPER
ATMOSPHERE. BUT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES ARE PROGGED UP AS HIGH
AS 1.5. HOWEVER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAS MANY SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS IN PLAY FROM SURFACE UPWARD INTO JET STREAM AND IS BY
FAR BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER AND POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. CRAS IR SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWING IMPRESSIVE
COLD CLOUD TOPS APPROACHING REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES OF 2.0. WILL ISSUE ESF FOR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN CONCENTRATING ON THE WET PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AGGRAVATION OF EXISTING AND POTENTIAL RENEWAL OF
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY AND BEYOND. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN PROGS
IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF DEVELOPING UPPER SYSTEM
SKIRTING ALONG US/CANADIAN BORDER. ECMWF NOW TAKING A SLOWER AND
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CWA INTO THE WEEKEND. SO HAVE ADDED AN
AFTERNOON THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL LEAVE TAFS VFR THRU FCST PERIOD. WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL LEAVE TAFS
MORE TOWARDS THE POSITIVE SIDE IN TERMS OF CIGS/VSBYS AND LEAVE
MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF TAFS...BUT HINT AT CB/S AND VCTS LATER IN
THE NIGHT AND WED MRNG. WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY
PERSISTENT LOW CIGS/VSBYS WITH STORMS AND ALSO THE TRENDS IN THE
MVFR CIGS APPCH ASSOC WITH COMMA HEAD OF SW IA VORT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...17
AVIATION/MARINE...10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 251952
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
252 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

.SHORT TERM...

MCV ACROSS LOWER MI SHIFTING AWAY FROM SRN WI/N IL. RUC ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW WEAK VORT LOBE HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE FIELD LEFT BEHIND BY
DEPARTING VORT SEEMS TO BE PUTTING THE KIBOSH ON VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. WITH SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING LATER TONIGHT MAY BE
ENUF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE TO ALLOW
SOMETHING TO FIRE. ALSO WATCHING INTERESTING LOOKING CLOUD MASS
ACRS NRN IA WORKING EWD. NAM IS DRY AND GFS IS WET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SRN CWA...SO WILL TRIM GFS MOS POPS...MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT.

APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY MORNING. NAM SHOWS CAPES AROUND 1700
J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MID LEVELS RATHER DRY...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. ALSO NO TRIGGER WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW. MODELS DON`T GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. CRAS MODEL ALSO SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SOUTH...CLOSE TO THE EXPECTED
SURFACE BOUNDARY. 850 MB FLOW INCREASES ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA...WITH SOME CONVERGENCE AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. THIS
WOULD BRING A POTENTIAL OF A MCS. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.70 INCHES.

BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER DIFLUENCE ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND INCREASING SEVERE PARAMETERS. EHI VALUES RISE TO 2.75 WITH
BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS AROUND 20. THUS SOME SUPER CELL POTENTIAL
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE
SOME TORNADO THREAT PROVIDING THE CAP BREAKS DURING OR LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...

ECMWF SHOWED A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A CUTOFF LOW PUSHING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THE COLD
AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RESULTANT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEPS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY...CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD THEN BRING QUIET WEATHER TO
THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE WEST BY MID WEEK...BUT THIS WOULD BECOME AN ISSUE MORE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL GO MAINLY VFR THIS PERIOD. MVFR CU FIELD EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE. MAY SEE SOME HAZE/LIGHT FOG AS WELL NOW THAT WE HAVE
SOME HIGHER DEWS OVERTAKING THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION LOW AT
THE MOMENT SO WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS...HOWEVER APPCH FRONT
LATER IN THE NIGHT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...10/COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 270213
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
915 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...PER DISCUSSION WITH NCRFC PERSONNEL...FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE RUNNING ABOUT ONE HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES LOWER FOR
ALL TIME PERIODS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ONE AND THREE HOUR FFG AROUND
2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS.

WATER VAPOR AND WIND PROFILERS INDICATED WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THRU SW WI ATTM WITH HINT OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS. CRAS IMAGERY
INDICATING CONTINUED COOLING CLOUDS THRU THE LATE NIGHT.  HENCE WL
CONTINUE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER WL DROP POPS SLIGHTLY AS
LOW LEVEL JET FOCUS WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO THE WEST.

PARADE OF MCS/S HAS SURPRESSED DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX INTO WI/MN/NRN
IA AREA TODAY.  HOWEVER SEEING SOME SIGNS OF CHANGE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S BEGINNING TO POOL IN CENTRAL
SODAK AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WIND PROFILERS
STARTING TO SHOW LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING INTO THIS AREA.  MID LEVEL
JETLET ASSOCIATED WITH SAID TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY
MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0
INCHES.  MESO-BETA ELEMENT VELOCITY GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTH INCREASING TO OVER 10K FT.  EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF APPROACHING STRONG SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW WARM FRONT TO SURGE
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE
NORTHWEST.  1KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 15 TO 35 KNOTS WHILE 6KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO UP TO 45 KNOTS. 3KM VGP NEAR 0.5 WITH LOW LCLS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HENCE ADDED MENTION OF TORNADOES TO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

DIFLUENT THICKNESS PATTERN SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE CDFNT APPROACHES.  SATURATION
THICKNESS FAVORS HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT.  MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE OVER SRN WI INTO FRI EVENING.

CONTEMPLATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA DUE TO REMAINING
SATURATED SUB SOILS...LOW FFG AND EXISTING STANDING WATER.  HOWEVER
CONCERN OVER HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.  WITH
UNCERTAINTY OF MODELS HANDLING HEAVIER QPF AND WITH COORDINATION
FROM ARX/GRB...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINE FOR NOW AND LET MIDNIGHT
SHIFT MAKE FINAL DECISION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

$$
MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 031914
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
215 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM QUESTION OF NIGHT TIME FOG...OTHERWISE 
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH PRECIP THREAT 
RETURNING SUN NGT. 

.VERY SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES.  NO INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT IN TIME THAT FOG WILL BE A 
PROBLEM...AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

EXPECTING LESS STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL 
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S DURING 
THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES IN THERMAL TROUGH MODERATE A FEW DEGREES.  
MAY BE MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AS SC DEVELOPS AND MAY BE AREAS OF 
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR A TIME DUE TO VERY WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION 
PASSING THROUGH WISCONSIN AS INDICATED BY CRAS FORECAST IR IMAGERY.  
HOWEVER M/S WORDING SHOULD HOLD FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  SUBSIDENCE 
SETTLES OVER REGION THEN AND HOLDS ON THROUGH SUNDAY.  MAY BE SOME 
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ESPECIALLY 
IN RIVER VALLEYS...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN GRIDS/ZONES AT THIS 
POINT DUE TO DRIER AIR SETTLING INTO THE AREA. WITH LAKE BREEZE 
WINDS BECOMING MORE S TO SELY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LAKESHORE AREAS 
WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO SMALLER FETCH.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/.

SPRAWLING RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS WESTERN GTLAKES 
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MOST OF THE EXTENDED 
GUIDANCE HAS CARRYING THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  HI RES 
ECMWF SHOWING BETTER CONSISTENCY IN LAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND GFS HAS 
BEEN SLOWLY ADJUSTING TO THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AS WELL. FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR SRN WISCONSIN TUESDAY MRNG SO WILL 
HANG ON TO SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION UNTIL THE AFTN. 

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW DURING 
MID-WEEK AS SECONDARY WEAKER WAVE MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN WED/WED 
NGT.  ENOUGH FORCING AND INSTABILITY /PROVIDING MOISTURE RETURN/ TO 
WARRANT CONTINUING SMALL POPS.  

500MB GFS 5 DAY MEANS IN AGREEMENT ON UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONING TO 
MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH 00Z/13.  
TAKING ON MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LOOK WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK COOL 
FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THRU GTLAKES EVERY FEW DAYS OR SO.  WARMER 
TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN CONTINUED FAVORABLE AGRICULTURAL GROWTH 
REGIME AND DRYING OF LINGERING FLOODED AREAS FROM EARLY JUNE.  HIT 
AND MISS CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY PASSING WEAK FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE 
EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.  
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FEET AGL WILL DIMINISH EARLY 
THIS EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS 
ALONG LAKESHORE AREAS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.  MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM THE 
NORTHWEST.    

&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM..........MBK
VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/.....CJK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 082111 RRA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST EMPHASIS ON THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATER
TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/.

ND/MN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SURGE OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION NORTH OF WEAK WARM FRONT.  NAM 850-700 MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY DEPICTING PRESENT CONVECTION WELL...TRACKS
SOUTHEAST THRU THE NIGHT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA.  SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS ON KEEPING
WARM...MOIST SURGE JUST TO THE WEST OF CWA.  LATEST SPC SREF PERCENT
OF MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION AGREES AND KEEPS HIGHER THREAT TO THE
WEST UNTIL AFT 12Z.  CRAS FORECAST ALSO KEEPS COLDEST CLOUD TOPS TO
THE WEST OF THE MS RVR THRU 12Z. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS...CIRRUS
BLOWOFF SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THIS MORNINGS READINGS.

GFS AND NAM NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON COOL FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IMPRESSIVE
CYCLONIC SHEAR DURING THIS TIME.  THINKING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SBCAPES
NEARING 1000 J. LOW WETBULB ZEROS AND ENOUGH SHEAR FOR CONVECTION TO
BECOME BRIEFLY ORGANIZED FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  POST FRONTAL GUSTY
WINDS FOR A TIME NEAR THE LAKE...WHICH WILL CARRY INTO THE EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE LAKE SUN NGT
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS DIPPING BELOW 50.  OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GTLAKES LINGERS INTO MONDAY WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER
STILL SEE SOME ENCOURAGING SIGNS. GFS REMAINS POOR WITH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY OVER PREVIOUS FOUR CYCLES...HOWEVER LAST SEVERAL RUNS
SHOWING SOME CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO DAYS 4-5.  GFS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN SHOWING MORE AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWER LONG WAVE TROUGH IN WRN ONTARIO...JUST WEST OF GTLAKES...WITH
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE VCNTY OF SRN CAN/US BORDER. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
DIVERGES IN LATER PERIODS FROM WED NGT ONWARD AS ECMWF SHOWS LONG
WAVE TROUGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER ERN GTLAKES REGION
WHILE GFS MOVES SYSTEM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND EMPHASIZES NRN
PLAINS CLOSED LOW.  THINKING GFS SOLUTION LOOKS UNREALISTIC FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON ECMWF...WHICH DOES BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WRN
GTLAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

WL CONTINUE SCHC POPS FOR TUE THRU WED PERIOD AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES THRU WI DURING THIS PERIOD.  WILL BE ABLE TO HONE IN ON BEST
PERIOD AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THIS EVENT.

NOT ALOT OF STOCK PUT INTO GFS 5DAY 500HPA MEANS DUE TO PROBLEMS
WITH THIS GUIDANCE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.  INTERESTING HOW 5DAY MEANS GO
THROUGH 360 DEGREE TRANSITION FROM TROFFING OVER ERN CONUS AND
NORTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING OVER WI AT START OF PERIOD TO UPSTREAM
TROFFING SETTLING OVER WISCONSIN FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.  IN BOTH PERIODS...HEIGHTS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CU FIELD TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. AN AREA OF CIRRUS RIDING UP TOP WILL CRUISE THROUGH SRN WI
INTO THE EVE HRS...BUT ALL IN ALL QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TRICKY
TIME FRAME COMES UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TSRA POTENTIAL AND GUSTY
WIND SHIFT TO THE NE.

&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM....11
AVIATION................10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 161911
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
211 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2008

.SHORT TERM...
SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER IOWA.
FOG MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS LATE. GRADIENT IS WEAK ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. LAST NIGHT'S 0753Z 1 KM
RESOLUTION MODIS SKIN TEMPERATURE IMAGE WAS IN GENERAL WITHIN
AROUND A DEGREE OF ACTUAL MIN TEMPS (USUALLY JUST A LITTLE COLDER
THAN ACTUAL LOWS...WHICH IS EXPECTED). SURFACE TEMPS SHOWED AROUND
A 4 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH TEMPS AROUND ACTUAL LOWS. 0753Z WAS
WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME AND SHOWED EXCELLENT DETAIL OF TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION. SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR SO TONIGHTS IMAGERY
SHOULD BE USEFUL AGAIN.

THERE IS SEVERAL INDICATIONS OF A SMALL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK VORT IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ALONG
WITH WEAK JET MAX. NAM HAS CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG WITH SOME AREAS
NEAR 2000 J/KG. 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHES WITH SOME
INCREASE IN DEW POINTS AND 850 MB MOISTURE. HOWEVER NAM APPEARS
TO OVERDO THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND AS A RESULT THE CAPE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WEAK WITH NO REAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT
WILL NOT MENTION POPS...WITH MOS IN THE 6 TO 12 PCT RANGE. CRAS
MODEL NOT GENERATING ANY PRECIPITATION OTHER THAN ISOLATED SPOTS
OF ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS. NAM HAS MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION
OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH LIGHT. PREFER THE DRIER
SOLUTIONS.

NEXT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WOULD BE THE FOCUS.
HOWEVER LOW AND MID LEVELS FAIRLY DRY...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH POPS IN THE 10 TO 15 PCT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...
BOTH 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF GRADUALLY BUILD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...AND
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY...WITH REMNANTS OF CENTRAL
ROCKIES UPPER LOW AROUND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
GFS PICKS UP THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES IT TOWARD THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER EASTERN
KANSAS...NOT REALLY BEING PICKED UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.

UPPER RIDGE MORE OR LESS HOLDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SATURDAY...WHILE GFS BRINGS NORTHWEST U.S. SHORTWAVE TO N MN. WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MAY NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE
AS GFS INDICATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU PERIOD. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT NEAR RIVER VALLEYS...HOWEVER IT/S TOO PATCHY TO
MENTION IN TAFS. DIURNAL CU WILL DIE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH
MORE REDEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...18/BORGHOFF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 171859
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
159 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008

.SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ONE
REACHED 52 DBZ BEFORE WEAKENING. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE
RISING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG WITH LI/S FALLING TO -4. FORECAST
SOUNDING INDICATE MIXING SHOULD REDUCE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVELS FAIRLY DRY ABOVE WEAK CAP AROUND 600
MB...SO DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH ENTRAINMENT.
HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IF A STORM MAKES IT
ABOVE THE CAP WITH UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAIRLY STEEP. LATEST
LOCAL 4KM WRF BASED OFF 15Z LAPS SHOW ONLY SMALL ISOLATED AND
RELATIVE WEAK SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH CRAS
ONLY HAVING A FEW GRID POINTS WITH A HUNDREDTH OR SO. 12Z WRF
BASED OF GFS AND 12Z NAM SHOWS NO THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS.

EVEN WITH THE WEST SURFACE WINDS 1622Z MODIS SHOWS WARM UPPER
60 DEGREE LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS NEAR SHORE...WITH NO COOLER UPWELLING
SEEN. WOULD HAVE THOUGHT TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN COOLER...BUT WINDS
ARE WEAK.

WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SPEED
MAX TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY MONDAY...WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND
SHIFT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER
LOW AND MID LEVELS BECOME A LITTLE DRIER...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH POPS IN THE 10 TO 14 PCT RANGE.
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A MORE NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES...MAINLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...
BOTH 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF GRADUALLY BUILD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...AND
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY...WITH REMNANTS OF CENTRAL
ROCKIES UPPER LOW AROUND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. APPEARS SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE TOO FAR NORTHWEST TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE DECAYING UPPER LOW WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT WILL REMOVE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. NOW NO
QPF ON 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/OR 06Z DGEX.

GFS PICKS UP THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES IT TOWARD
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GFS NOW
LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER AND WEAKER ECMWF ON THIS. HOWEVER GFS
STILL HAS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHWEST U.S.

ECMWF NOW CLOSER TO GFS IN BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AS NORTHWEST
U.S. SHORTWAVE MOVES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY. WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH SOUTH
WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND LOW MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THRU PERIOD. TCU AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...18/BORGHOFF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 031830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
130 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

.SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV IN ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE PICKED UP
BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CRAS MODELS ALL
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS EARLY FRIDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND
CRAS SOULTIONS DO HINT AT MOVING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION A BIT
FURTHER WEST. THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS TO EASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FAR SE WISCONSIN...WITH STRONG FORCING AND GOOD UPPER
SUPPORT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. THE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT FRIDAY...AS 850 MB RIDGING MOVES AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD TAKE
HOLD. MODELS SHOW STONG ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING AND MOVING THE
INITIAL WAVE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
APPEARS MOST LIKELY LATE SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING AT LEAST SOME
CAPE...SO THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
THE TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS INTO MONDAY...BEFORE MORE
ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT PASSED...LOWER LEVELS ARE SLOWLY DRYING
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL WI. MID LEVEL DECK SHOULD LINGER OVER KMKE AND
KENW AS MOISTURE FEEDS UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH APPROACHING REMAINS OF
GUSTAV. KMSN SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH
THE REMAINS OF GUSTAV OVER THE AREA BY THU MORNING...LOOK FOR
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE UNDER LIGHT TO
MODERATE STEADY RAIN.

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SEEPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND THE
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV APPROACHES SOUTHERN WI FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND PREVAIL OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...WAVES WILL BUILD
TO 4 TO 6 FEET IN MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST WI NEARSHORE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.

&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...24/FRANKS/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 062042
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES TO MAINLY WRN AND
NRN PORTIONS OF CWA LAST NIGHT IS NEAR SSM. AN INTERESTING SIGN
OF AUTUMN WAS THE BAND OF CLOUDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
ON VSBY SATELLITE. WITH THE LAKE WATERS AND NEAR SFC AIR TEMPS WARMER
THAN INLAND AIR TEMPS...LAND BREEZE SET UP A NORTH TO SOUTH
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE LAKE...AND PRODUCED THE CLOUD BAND.
TRAILING VORTICITY LOBE FROM EXITING SHORT WAVE ENHANCED THE LIFT
AND POPPED A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN THIS BAND OVER THE ERN SECTION OF
THE LAKE AND LOWER MICHIGAN.

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...SIMILAR SITUATION TO LAST NIGHT WITH
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM SW IOWA ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS.
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AS WELL AS CRAS FORECAST WATER VAPOR LOOPS
TRACK THIS WAVE TO OUR SOUTH KEEPING MOST OF SRN WI DRY.
HOWEVER...NAM FORECAST SNDGS FOR RFD SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SO WILL PUT A CHC ALONG THE BORDER FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHC FOR THE REMAINDER OF CWA AS SECOND
WAVE APPROACHES REGION.

ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND WAVE FARTHER NORTH...BUT SOME 850 MB THERMAL
RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH LOW-MID LVL Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLAY FOR SUNDAY. TWEAKED COOLER
MET NUMBERS DOWN A BIT DUE TO PCPN.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE PUSHES 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO
NRN IL SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MORE DYNAMIC
WAVE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS
REGION FOR MONDAY. FAVORED NAM MODEL TRACKS SFC AND 850 MB LOW
SOUTHEAST OF WI...CLIPPING THE SE CORNER...PLACING SRN WI UNDER
SHIELD OF STEADY MODERATE RAIN. PCPN MOST LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH SLOPED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. AGAIN SIDED
WITH COOLER MET TEMPS FOR TUE HI/S.

.LONG TERM...SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF TROF BRINGS A DRY TUE AND
WED. WAA ADVECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP WAVE OVER WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FAR WRN CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND CWA-WIDE WED NIGHT. HAVE HI CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
WITH TROF...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIER POPS IN
SUBSEQUENT RUNS. DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BLEND OF MEX/HPC
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP 
THINGS VFR THROUGH THIS SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. MID AND HIGH LEVEL 
CLOUDS SPREADING ENE FROM IOWA AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. WILL INCREASE THE 
MID CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVELS...FROM SOUNDINGS/RH 
PROGS/MOS...LOOK DRY AND MODELS SUGGEST BULK OF ENERGY/LIFT WILL 
STAY JUST SOUTH OF WI. SOME MID LEVEL RH LINGERS INTO SUNDAY 
MORNING. 


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...09
AVIATION/MARINE...10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 130900
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO SUNDAY 
EVENING...THEN DRIER REGIME TAKING HOLD FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TODAY-
STRONGEST 850 THETA-E ADVECTION/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO OUR SOUTH 
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HEAVIEST CELLS ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF RAIN 
SHIELD FEEDING OFF OF THE TROPICAL DEW POINTS IN THE 70S AND 
INTERCEPTING THE BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW. STRONGEST 850 
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS WELL...HOWEVER 
OUR SOUTHERN CWA DOES GET IN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE 850-500 
MILLIBAR FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. UPPER 
LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOES WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE MORNING HOURS 
HOWEVER UPPER FLOW DOES REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST IR AND 
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT KEEPING THE HEAVIEST FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS 
SOUTH OF WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. TRIMMED OFF NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES FROM THE FFA. THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGD TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY AND THE NAM ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME QUESTION ON THIS...AS CLOUD COVER TO KEEP INSTABILITY ON
HOLD AND OVERALL DYNAMICS WEAKER THAN THIS MORNING. GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW TALL SKINNY CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD DEPTH/PRECEPITABLE WATERS AND MBE
CONSIDERATIONS SUGGEST KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH GOING IN THAT
SOUTHERN TIER FOR NOW...THOUGH OVERALL EXTENT OF REDEVELOPMENT
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THERMALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY.

TONIGHT-
LOOKS LIKE RELATIVE BREAK IN THE ACTION BETWEEN FRONTAL TYPE 
PRECIPITATION AND APPROACHING DEFORMATION TYPE PRECIPITATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IKE. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALLISH 
CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT-
THINGS GET STICKY AS TRACK/TIMING OF IKE STILL UNCERTAIN. GFS HAS 
BACKED OFF A BIT ON QPF BUT STILL HAS A STRONG LOW HEADING INTO OHIO 
ON SUNDAY. THE NAM VERY QUICKLY SHEARS IKE APART AND NEVER REALLY 
GETS ITS INFLUENCE UP HERE AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE PROGRESSIVE 
UPPER TROUGH. THE CRAS LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE NAM. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN 
CONSISTENT FROM THE 12Z RUN SHOWING THE HIGHEST QPF IN THE SE CORNER 
OF THE CWA...LESS THAN A HALF INCH. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH 
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS FEEL THE CURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AS 
PLAYED OUT BY THE MODELS IS JUSTIFIED...BUT WILL STEER TOWARDS THE 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HPC QPF DUE TO TROPICAL ORIGIN OF SYSTEM.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY-
SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES ON MONDAY 
THOUGH COLUMN LOOKS PRETTY DRY. UPPER RIDGING THEN TAKES HOLD FOR 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOO WITH 850 MILLIBAR 
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM +4C ON MONDAY TO NEAR 12C ON WEDNESDAY. 
TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&
10

.AVIATION....AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BEST UPWARD VERTICAL 
MOTION FIELDS THIS MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AND FOCUSED WARM 
AIR ADVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. VLIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES 
AT TIMES DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. 
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTN AS SURFACE LOW 
EXITS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  

&&

.MARINE...AS THE LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA TODAY...SOUTH WINDS ACROSS 
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MAY GUST TO 22 KNOTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER...DO NOT 
EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
ISSUANCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS COMES ON SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS THE CORE OF THE REMNANTS OF IKE PASS TO THE 
SOUTHEAST. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE 
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ067>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 181959
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
259 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SHORT TERM...

GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH AREAS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT GROUND FOG POTENTIAL IS LIMITED.

SOUTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. FORECAST AREA IS IN ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET...SO NO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONT. MODIS SHOWS LAKE SURFACE TEMPS NEAR 60 NORTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON...WITH MID 60S SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH OF A
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FOR A LAKE BREEZE...THAT WOULD NOT REACH VERY
FAR INLAND. 

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL
END OF AN ELONGATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AS
RIDGING OCCURS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. ONLY WEAK UPWARD MOTION INDICATED FROM LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/WEAK CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
MAINLY ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 800 J/KG. AIRMASS MOISTENS ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...AND WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT DRY. WILL TRIM
THE SLIGHT CHANCE A BIT OVER THE SOUTH. NAM AND GFS HAVE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. CRAS MODEL AND LOCAL 20 KM WRF REMAINS DRY. PREFER THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS.

.LONG TERM...

GFS DEVELOPS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN ON
SUNDAY...THAT SLOWLY REACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS BRINGS A LARGE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 

MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN U.S...REACHING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. INITIAL SHORTWAVE HEADS
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...BUT SECONDARY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE REACHES
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY EVENING...THEN THE SHORTWAVES PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...REACHING WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHEARING OUT AND
WEAKENING.

AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
EAST...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE RIDGE STILL AFFECTING SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS FINALLY PUSHES PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST...AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS VERY SIMILAR...BUT
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TOO FAST...SO WILL DELAY 
PRECIPITATION AROUND 12 HOURS AND EXTEND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO THURSDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...

DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO 
KEEP VFR NO CELINGS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MAY ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME 
POCKETS OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 222007 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS FOG POTENTIAL. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS HAS ERODED OVER ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORE AREAS
AROUND PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN. THIS STRATUS MAY REMAIN DUE
TO COOL MOIST FLOW OFF THE LAKE. STRATUS MAY PUSH FARTHER INLAND
THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH FOG/STRATUS AS LAST NIGHT DUE
TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL GRADIENT. HOWEVER ENOUGH DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR TO BRING AT LEAST PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER.

SECONDARY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REACH 
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT. THEN THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHEAST MOVING NEGATIVELY
TITLED TROUGH OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN CANADA
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WITH THE DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH...AND UPPER RIDGE HOLDING FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...THE SHOWERS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF
AND THE CRAS ALL SHOW THIS...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. NAM IS A
LITTLE MORE WITH AROUND 0.50 INCH OVER MADISON...WITH ONLY 0.04
OVER MILWAUKEE. CAPES ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY OFF THE
NAM SOUNDINGS.

STRONG MID AND LOW LEVEL DRYING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER...
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THESE DAYS.
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. ECMWF
IS STRONGER AND NOW A BIT SLOWER...WITH MAIN INFLUENCE ON MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE...WITH LARGE MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES WITH EACH MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. DECOUPLING WINDS AND LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR FOG AT KMSN AND KENW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH AT KMKE TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION. MIXING OF WINDS BY 15Z SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS BACK
TO KMSN AND KENW...LASTING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP 
WAVES IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
CORRECTED WIND DIRECTION IN MARINE SECTION

SHORT/LONG TERM...06
AVIATION/MARINE...08

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 232017
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
317 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN CANADA
AREA THIS MORNING. BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE EXTENDS FROM WESTER IOWA
TO NORTHEAST MN THIS EVENING...THEN FROM EASTERN IOWA TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT. UPPER DIVERGENCE WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE...THEN WELL
NORTH INTO CANADA BY NOON.

WITH THE DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS SHOWS
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. NAM/ECMWF AND CRAS IS A LITTLE MORE WITH
AROUND 0.10 INCH WEST OF MADISON...WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OVER MILWAUKEE. CAPES NOW AROUND 1500 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY
OFF THE NAM SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING THE MID
LEVELS DRY OUT RAPIDLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL GO WITH
HIGHER POPS THAN GFS MOS.

.LONG TERM...

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER...
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THESE DAYS.
A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. GFS IS NOW STRONGER AND NOW A BIT SLOWER. PREFER ECMWF
WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE DUE TO UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. 

BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE. ECMWF IS NOW BRINGING A CUTOFF LOW INTO
WISCONSIN...WHILE GFS IS AN OPEN WAVE. EITHER WAY SHORTWAVE WILL
BE RATHER STRONG. PREFER GFS SOLUTION ON THIS FOR NOW. 

&&

.AVIATION...

FR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 
18Z TAF ISSUANCE. MID CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD 
OF AND ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA 
SOMETIME WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  -SHRA AND ISOLD THUNDER 
EXPECTED IN VCNTY OF KMSN BY 12Z/24. DRY AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL 
SETTLE IN AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY CLEAR OUT BY WED 
EVENING. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 102046
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
346 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008

FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 
WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY AHEAD OF DEEPENING WRN 
TROF...WITH THUNDER OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/FAR WRN MN IN REGION OF 
BEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENTIC FORCING AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 
300K SFC. SOME MID/HI CLOUDS IN MO/SRN IL LIFTING NE AHEAD OF SHORT 
WAVE LOCATED IN ERN KS AT 19Z ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

.SHORT TERM...
CRAS IR FORECAST IMAGERY SHOWS MO/SRN IL CLOUDS MOVING INTO CWA 
AFTER 03Z...BUT BUFKIT SNDGS AND LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE 
DEFICITS ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES INDICATED ONLY SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS 
OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION.
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND TRAJECTORIES FAVOR MOS GUIDANCE 
NUMBERS FOR TONIGHT.

SOUNDINGS DO NOT QUITE MIX UP TO 850MB LEVEL SATURDAY...BUT USING
925MB TECHNIQUE YIELDS HI TEMPS SAT CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS IN 
THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH COOLER TEMPS LAKESIDE 
WITH SE WINDS. EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD UP SAT NIGHT WITH ENOUGH SFC 
GRADIENT AND TURBULENT MIXING WITH 20-25KT SRLY WINDS JUST OFF THE 
SURFACE TO PREVENT DECOUPLING. SUNDAY 850 MB TEMPS OF +14C MIX DOWN 
TO LOWER 80/S AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH EXPECTED THIN CIRRUS DECK 
ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS CLOSER TO UPR 70S TO AROUND 80. AFTERNOON 
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKE AS SFC WINDS TURN SE. 

SLOWER MOVEMENT OF WRN TROF KEEPS WRN GREAT LAKES UNDER INFLUENCE OF 
RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED SLGT 
CHANCE POPS TO JUST THE WRN CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN HI 
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LINES UP WELL WITH 
ENHANCED CLOUDS ON CRAS IR IMAGERY.

.LONG TERM...
GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE GREATLY IN HANDLING WRN TROF. ECMWF EJECTS 
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ENERGY INTO NRN STREAM ACROSS NRN PLAINS 
TOWARD HUDSON BAY...THEN OPENS UP SRN PORTION OF TROF AND TRACKS IT 
ACROSS MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AS AN OPEN WAVE. GFS KEEPS 
CLOSED CIRCULATION INTACT INTO THE PLAINS THAT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE 
TILT AS IT LIFTS INTO SRN ONTARIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 00Z AND 12Z 
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS FAVOR THE ECMWF...WHILE 12Z NAM LEANS TOWARD GFS 
THOUGH FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH AT 84 HOURS (00Z TUE).

WENT WITH HPC BLENDED SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS PCPN CHANCES INTO WED AS 
SECOND WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG SFC FRONT AND MOVES JUST SOUTH OF STATE 
TUE NIGHT...THEN SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS RGN DURING THE 
DAY WED. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MEX MOS AND HPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPS. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF 
LLWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SSE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE 
FORECAST BY A COUPLE OF THE MODELS AROUND 03-06Z. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN 
EYE ON THE DEVELOPING CONDITIONS. 


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...09 REM
AVIATION/MARINE...13 MRC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 110828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...
CRAS IR FORECAST IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CLOUDS OVER WI/IL WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF AREA. THEY ARE RELATED TO WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THRU OUR AREA. THEN SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TODAY.
WILL GO A POINT OR TWO HIGHER THAN MOS MAV VALUES GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPS OF +14/+15....WHICH TRANSLATES TO PERHAPS 80 DEGREE WELL
INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE LOOP
SUGGESTS SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST. SO
WILL ONLY GO WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS 80 FOR TODAY. A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY WILL CUT DOWN ON THE MAX TEMP A COUPLE DEGREES.

TEMPS SHOULD HOLD UP SAT NIGHT WITH ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT TO
KEEP THINGS MIXED UP. 

.LONG TERM...
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF WESTERN TROF KEEPS SC AND SE WI DRY UNTIL MON
EVENING. OF COURSE MORE CLOUDS ON MONDAY WILL CUT DOWN ON THE MAX
TEMPS FROM WHAT WE WILL HAVE THIS WEEKEND. BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAKE THE SQUEEZE PLAY. CRAS IMAGERY
SHOWS COOLER TOPS COMING ACROSS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...SO WE SHOULD SEE SOMETHING AT THAT TIME.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN HANDLING WESTERN TROF. ECMWF
EJECTS SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ENERGY INTO NRN STREAM ACROSS NRN
PLAINS TOWARD HUDSON BAY...THEN OPENS UP SRN PORTION OF TROF AND
TRACKS IT ACROSS MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AS AN OPEN WAVE.
GFS KEEPS CLOSED CIRCULATION INTACT INTO THE PLAINS THAT TAKES ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS INTO SRN ONTARIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS FAVOR THE ECMWF...WHILE NAM LEANS TOWARD GFS.
HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR WED AND NOW
SUGGESTS MUCH OF PRECIP WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF WI. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR WED GOING PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.

COOLER WEATHER ON TAP REMAINDER OF WEEK...WITH ANOTHER RAIN SYSTEM
FOR NEXT FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY SLY FLOW WL CONT TO PRODUCE GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS 
TDY.  VERY PATCHY LIGHT FOG SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY THIS MRNG WITH FEW 
TO AT MOST SCT CU OR AC LATER TODAY.  SHALLOW INVERSION TNGT WL 
ALLOW PATCHY LATE NGT FOG WITH MINIMAL VSBY RESTRICTION AT BEST.

&&

.MARINE...MODIS IMAGER INDICATING SEA SURFACE TEMPS OVER NEARSHORE 
IN THE LOW 60S.  HENCE EXPECT STRONG AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL 
INVERSION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PREVENTING MUCH MIXING OF 
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH WINDS AND WAVES REMAINING BLO SMALL CRAFT 
ADVY CRITERIA.



&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...34...AFK
AVIATION/MARINE...11...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 212117
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN FOCUSES ON THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY 
MORNING.  GFS SHOWING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO 
COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHEN COMPARED 
TO LATEST NAM GUIDANCE...HOWEVER DIFFERENCES RATHER SMALL.  ALL 
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING MESOSCALE MODELS WEAKEN DAKOTA WAVE AS 
IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA/MN LATER TONIGHT.  IT CONTINUES 
SOUTHEAST TRACK INTO IL ON SATURDAY WITH FURTHER WEAKENING INTO 
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE.  TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS LOW 
LEVELS REMAIN DRY WITH A FAILURE TO SATURATE OVER SRN WI.  YET BRIEF 
PERIOD OF IMPRESSIVE LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SKIMS MY SOUTHWEST.  
Q-VECTORS AT THE UPPER LEVELS AS STRONG AS 30 UNITS.  EVEN MORE 
IMPRESSIVE IS THE SOUTHWEST ALSO GETS BRUSHED BY AN AREA OF 
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC OMEGA DEPICTED ON THE 285 THETA SURFACE SAT 
MRNG.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER TO LESS THAN 10MB ON 
THIS LEVEL WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF CROSS ISOBAR FLOW OF 20 TO 30KTS AS 
IT SKIMS THE SOUTHWEST.  -SN COULD WORK ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE 
DURING STRONGER FORCING SAT MRNG...SO ADDED LOW POPS IN MY SOUTHWEST 
PER COORDINATION WITH DVN/ARX. WRF-4G...HI RES ECMWF AS WELL AS CRAS 
PAINT OUT LIGHT QPF IN MY FAR SOUTHWEST.

LEANING TOWARD NAM AND GFS OVERDOING AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
LINGERING OVER UPPER MIDWEST IN WAKE OF WEAKENING SHORT WAVE 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY GET CAUGHT IN 
STRENGTHENING INVERSION DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT.  AT 
THIS POINT...WL GO WITH P/C WORDING.  MILDER DAY ANTICIPATED ON 
SUNDAY WITH 85H TEMPS WARMING ABOVE ZERO.  DEEPENING MOISTURE AND 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO BRING AREAS OF RAIN AND 
SNOW TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUN NGT WITH LINGERING -SHSN INTO MON/MON 
NGT AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW OVER GTLAKES.  
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SUN EVENING 
BEFORE COOLING LATER IN THE NIGHT.  

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT IN EXTENDED GUIDANCE INCLUDING HI RES 
ECMWF...GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN 
DEEPENING UPPER LOW BECOMING CUTOFF OVER ERN GTLAKES...AND THEN 
MEANDERING NORTHEAST OR REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LATER 
PERIODS. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...APPEARS LONG WAVE 
TROFFING AND UPPER LOW SLOWER MOVING AND MORE PERSISTENT WED AND 
THU.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP UPSTREAM RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY 
WEATHER ACROSS WRN GTLAKES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  LATEST MEDIUM 
RANGE ENSEMBLE PERCENT OF MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION BASED ON GFS 
SHOWING LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH THURSDAY.  SO AFTER 
SMALL THREAT OF -SHSN MON NGT ON BACKSIDE OF AMPLIFYING LOW PRESSURE 
WILL CONT DRY FORECAST THROUGH THU.  SOUTHERN STREAM OF SPLIT FLOW 
MORE ACTIVE LATER NEXT WEEK AND NOT IMPOSSIBLE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE 
SOUTH ON FRIDAY COULD TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK CONSIDERING 
UPSTREAM DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND POTENTIAL 
FOR SOME PHASING.  FOR NOW WL GO WITH DRY WORDING ON FRI BUT 
UNCERTAINTY QUITE LOW AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING ALOT OF 
VARIABILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM. WL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. 

DAY 11 OF 5 DAY 500MB MEANS FROM GFS VALID 00Z/02 SHOWS UPSTREAM 
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMOLY WEAKENING WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEST TO 
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WI BY FIRST DAYS OF DECEMBER. 

&&

.AVIATION...BRISK WEST WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF POLAR HIGH SHOULD 
DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNSET.  POTENT UPPER 
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW IN WESTERN DAKOTAS EXPECTED TO TURN 
EAST-SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TOMORROW.  BONE DRY AIR 
IN LOW LEVELS...BUT STRONG ASCENT SHOWN AROUND 10-15K FEET ABOVE 
GROUND.  WILL LIKELY BE VIRGA WITH THE SNOW STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT 
THROUGH THE DRY LOWER LEVELS.  AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE SNOW REACHING 
THE GROUND TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...WITH VFR BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MID LAYER CLOUDS.  
 
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...MBK
AVIATION/MARINE...JPC

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 050957
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
357 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY 
MORNING...THEN SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TODAY-
COLD 850 MILLIBAR POCKET WILL GET WHISKED EAST AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION GETS GOING. QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU AROUND FROM WESTERN
WI EXTENDING INTO IA AND MN WITH THE CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING SEWD
FROM CANADA. 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THE LOWER 20S WE HAVE
GOING IN THE GRIDS SO WONT CHANGE TOO MUCH THERE. SO EVEN THOUGH
WAA KICKING IN...INCREASE IN CLOUDS...WINDS AND THE COLD START
WILL PRETTY MUCH KEEP THE CHILL GOING ALL DAY.

TONIGHT-
RAPID ISENTROPIC MOISTENING ON THE 280-285K ISENTROPIC PLOTS THIS 
EVENING AS DECENT UPGLIDE LEADS TO SATURATION WITHIN THE WAA REGIME 
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS LOOKS TO BE A QUICK HITTER WITH 
700-300MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWING A PEAK IN THE L-M20S AROUND 
6Z WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA EXITING 
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. NOT A REAL STRONG CROSS HAIRS SIGNATURE. 
MIXING RATIOS ARE AROUND 1.5 G/KG IN THE 700-725MB LAYER. RATIOS 
EXPECTED TO BE 15:1. GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.15 THE GOING 2-3 
INCH FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A TOUGH TWEEK. WILL MENTION SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THE HWO AS BUFKIT WINDS/PROGGD SFC GRADIENT SHOW PRETTY
BRISK CONDITIONS DURING TIME OF PEAK SNOWFALL AND COMBINED WITH
HIGHER RATIOS/LOWER WATER CONTENT SNOW...COULD BE SOME ISSUES
WITH THAT.

SATURDAY-
SURFACE-850 FRONT WILL BE EXITING EARLY WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS 
ROTATING ACROSS MIDDAY. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST. 
RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY WITH 700 MILLIBAR DRYING 
AND SUBSIDENCE ESPECIALLY AFTER PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  
FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO A FEW SNOW 
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS CRANKING UP AS WELL. GFS/NAM 
AND CRAS SUGGESTING LIGHT QPF TIED TO THE MID LEVEL VORT.

SUNDAY-
QUIET AND CHILLY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY-
SNOW EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING AS RENEWED ISENTROPIC 
FORCING INTERACTS WITH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET 
STREAM. RAPID SATURATION AGAIN NOTED ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES WITH 
CRASHING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. 12Z AND 00Z ECMWF HAD QPF 
MAX TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER THEY HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTH MORE INTO THE 
OUR CWA. MEANWHILE GFS AND NAM HAVE A MORE SOUTHERN PLACEMENT OF QPF 
ACORSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. BEST ROUTE FOR NOW IS TO GO WITH CHANCE 
POPS FOR THIS LEAD WAA EVENT.  

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY-
00Z ECMWF DEFINITELY PAINTING A GLOOMIER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER 
SOUTHERN WAVE SCOOTING NEWD TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY WHILE GFS HAS MUCH 
MORE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A QUICKER MORE PROGRESSIVE 
LOOK TO THINGS. ECMWF CERTAINLY TAPS MORE MOISTURE AND BRINGS ALMOST 
0.50 INCH LIQUID WITH IT/S ASSOCIATED ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST IR IMAGES SHOWING WIDE SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS 
UPSTREAM OVER MN/IA CAUGHT UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.  WITH 
THERMAL TROUGH LINGERING OVER WI THROUGH THE MORNING AND INCREASING 
WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF BKN-OVC CLOUDS THIS 
MORNING WITH CEILING HEIGHTS AROUND 3K FEET. LATEST RUC ALSO SHOWING 
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH THIS MORNING.  WOULD EXPC CEILINGS TO 
INCREASE TO VFR THIS AFTN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF 
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.  PERIOD OF SNOW FROM 05Z THROUGH 14Z 
WILL RESULT IN IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING 
AS RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SURFACE TEMPS 
AROUND 4 DEGREES C ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 
20S TOWARDS THE OPEN WATERS...AS VERIFIED BY HARRISON CRIB LAST FEW 
HOURS. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL RESULT 
IN STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE 
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES 
COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS MIXING DOWN TO 
SURFACE THIS EVENING BUT ATTM THINKING THIS WILL BE BRIEF...SO WL 
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING 
LEADING UP TO WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SYSTEM. STRONG LOW 
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER 
CHANCE FOR A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND/OR GUSTS 
DUE TO VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  HENCE CONVERTED SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT SAT AFTN TO GALE WATCH AND 
EXTENDED HEADLINE TO 06Z/SUN. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR 
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...PAC
AVIATION/MARINE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 262123
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

.TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WILL START OFF WITH THE DENSE FOG STUFF TONIGHT AS
SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP WARMER AIR NORTH OVER THE SNOW COVER.
WITH DEW-POINTS ABOVE 32...SNOW-MELT IS OF A CONCERN. GFS/ECMWF
MODELS SUGGEST ROUND ONE WITH MODERATE/HEAVY RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAINS AND SNOW-MELT SPELL FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WHICH WE ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY. ROUND TWO OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS COMES UP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX IN
SOUTHERN PART OF TROUGH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WISCONSIN.
THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL. HAVE GONE 2-4 DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS
GUIDANCE ON MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY...DUE TO SNOW-COVER AND
CLOUDS/PCPN. I JUST CAN/T SEE 55 FOR MILWAUKEE AND 58 FOR KENOSHA
WITH THE SNOW-COVER WE HAVE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS
MY COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/ SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN IN THE CHANG-OVER...BUT WE USUALLY DON/T GET MUCH OF A MIX
WHEN GETTING COLDER ANYWAY. SHORT WAVE CUTS OFF INTO A 500 MB
LOW OVER WISCONSIN BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
MID-LEVEL FRONTO-FORCING/DEFORMATION ZONE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF MY CWA...SO NO WATCH FOR MY CWA.
HOWEVER...SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. SSEC CRAS IR FORECAST IMAGERY ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME ENHANCEMENT/WRAP-AROUND PCPN FOR MY CWA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SUGGEST SOMEWHAT WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SO...SOME BLOWING SNOW
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME WITH THE NEW SNOW. THE OLD SNOW WILL BE
CAPPED OFF BY FREEZING. WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY IF
WE DO GET THOSE 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES OF +4 TO +5 AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS MODEL. WINDS AT 850 MB ARE PROGGED TO BE 45 TO 50 KNOTS.

.MONDAY THRU WED...COUPLE SHORT WAVES/VORTICTY MAX/S SKIRT ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH MOST OF THE VORTICTY
CHANNELED/SHEARED...I DON/T EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO GENERATE SNOW FOR MY CWA. MODELS KEEP MOST OF SNOW IN
NORTHERN WI.

.THURSDAY/FRIDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH...AS UPPER TROF
DIGS AND CUTS OFF JUST SOUTH OF WI. MORE SNOW AT THAT TIME...BUT
NOT A MAJOR SNOW-PRODUCER. 

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL RH PROGS/MOS AND BUFKIT REALLY POINT TOWARDS 
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION TAKING SHAPE. THIS PROCESS WELL UNDERWAY 
AND EXPECT IT TO PERSIST AS MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA PER 
TRENDS IN ISODROSOTHERM ANAYLSIS AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO LOW LAYERS 
DUE TO SNOWMELT. THE RAIN MAY THROW A WRENCH INTO AT TIMES LATER 
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THAT WILL TEND TO STIR THINGS UP A 
BIT. EITHER WAY CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE LARGELY IN THE 
LIFR/VLIFR RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...WILL EXTEND SCA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT. WHILE 
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OR TWO WHERE WINDS MAY SLACKEN OFF WITH 
APPROACH OF THE LOW CENTER AND WITHIN TROUGH AXIS...APPEARS THAT 
PERIOD WILL BE SMALL ENOUGH SO THAT WE CAN JUST RUN THIS OUT UNTIL 
FROPA. CONCERN THERE FOR GALES WITH THE POST FRONTAL CAA REGIME. 
WILL RUN WITH A GLA FROM 6Z SUNDAY THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY 
NEED A SCA AFTER THAT FOR A WHILE TOO. 


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-
     057-062-063-067>069.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 
     EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ051-052-
     058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR 
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR 
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...34
AVIATION/MARINE...10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 022231 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO ADD SC.Y CODING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
430 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE
TEMPS DROP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLEAR SKIES. SLIGHT RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING. NAM
SHOWS SOME SATURATION IN LOW LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS
BELOW INVERSION...SO DOUBT ANY STRATUS WILL FORM TONIGHT.

EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM SATURDAY. HOWEVER NAM IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP
THIS THAN GFS. WITH RATHER WEAK SOUTH FLOW NOT COMPLETELY SURE
THE FASTER GFS IS THE WAY TO GO. THEREFORE WILL BE A BIT
CONSERVATIVE ON DEVELOPING STATUS AND ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SATELLITE SHOWS INITIAL STRATUS SURGE INTO OKLAHOMA/FAR SE KANSAS
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF...WITH MUCH OF E OKLAHOMA
MIXING OUT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW QUICK THE MOISTURE SURGE WOULD DEVELOP ANY INITIAL FREEZING
DRIZZLE. GFS HAS SOME POTENTIAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 2C AROUND 3 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 6PM SATURDAY. PREFER GFS WITH THE WARMER
LAYER FROM 3 TO 6 THSD FT THAN NAM BY THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS ONLY
SATURATES TO 7 THSD FT...AND BY THIS TIME NAM SHOWS SIMILAR
SATURATION LAYERS...SO PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY RISE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER GFS
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. NAM APPEARS TO GET TOO COLD IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. QPF ON NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND CRAS 
SIMILAR WITH NOT QUITE ENOUGH QPF FOR WARNING CRITERIA WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY THE TIME ATMOSPHERE IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...MOST OF THE QPF
SHOULD BE OVER. EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN AREAS NORTHWEST OF MADISON
TO THE FOND DU LAC AREAS. EVEN THERE ONLY AN INCH OR SO LIKELY
BEFORE ENDING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN ON THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHAT...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

BASIC PROBLEM IS WITH INITIAL SORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...AND HOW RESULTANT LOW EVENTUALLY GETS PICKED UP WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. GFS
ECMWF AND DGEX NOW FAIRLY SIMILAR KEEPING RESULTANT SHORTWAVE AS
ONE...RATHER THAN SEPARATE NORTH SOUTH ENTITIES. MAX QPF OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AREA. HOWEVER ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
GENERATE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE 12Z
MODELS...BUT LATER RUNS COULD STILL TREND BACK NORTH A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE 
DAY TOMORROW WITH ONLY MID TO HIGH WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS LIFTING 
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. OPERATIONAL PROGS AND LOCAL WRF 
MODEL SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUDS BY SHOWING A STRIPE 
OF HIGHER RH. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS 
WILL BE SCT TO BKN TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND MVFR CIGS WILL 
OCCUR BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY AND THUS WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF AT KMKE. 
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SUNDAY FOR MOST OF 
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.     

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS LIGHTEN UP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS TONIGHT. HIGH END 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH INCREASING EASTERLY 
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH NEXT LOW PASSING JUST TO 
THE SOUTH. WINDS DECREASE FOR A SHORT TIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS 
WINDS FLOP BACK TO THE WEST. DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SFC GRADIENT 
TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. GFS 
AND NAM INDICATING POSSIBLE GALES BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY. 
NO GALE WATCH YET WITH CONDITIONS MARGINAL...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL 
HAVE TO ASSESS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 18Z/03 UNTIL 09Z/05 LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ
AVIATION/MARINE...24