000 FXUS61 KBTV 081900 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 300 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2008 .SYNOPSIS... CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHERN VERMONT LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS BY SATURDAY WITH DRY AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET NIGHT ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA AS POST-FRONTAL UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE FROM SC CANADA/GREAT LAKES. WITH COLUMNAR MOISTURE PROFILES LESSENING WITH TIME EXPECT GENERALLY CLR TO PC SKIES TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW MOST AREAS. MIN TEMPS WITHIN 3 DEG OF SEASONAL VALUES FOR EARLY MAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...CONTINUATION OF GENERALLY DECENT WX ACROSS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM AS FLAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND/SRN CANADA MAINTAINS DRY CONDS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVERTISING LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND FRI/FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAFL TO THOSE REGIONS. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE WITH FAIRLY STRONG CONFLUENT EAST-WEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BEST FORCING/LIFT/WAA WITH THE SFC LOW SHOULD THEN REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND WILL LEAN CLOSE TO SREF POP VALUES DURING THESE PERIODS...WHICH OFFERS A NICE BLEND OF NAM/GFS SOLNS. THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR INCLUSION OF A LOW CHC POP FAR SOUTH LATER FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDS CENTRAL/NORTH... WHERE DRIER NATURE OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF PCPN. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE SOME OVERALL INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LVL RH/CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THESE PERIODS AS SFC LOW SLOWS JUST EAST OF THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THIS MORNING/S CRAS FORECAST RUNS WHICH WOULD OFFER A HIGH OVC CREEPING NNW ACROSS ERN TWO THIRDS OF REGION. WILL OFFER A MORE PESSIMISTIC SKY COVER SOLN ATTM...MAINTAINING GENERALLY MC SKIES ACROSS THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA LATER FRI INTO FRI EVENING...THOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADDRESS FULL EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AS THESE PERIODS EVOLVE. THEREAFTER...MEAN RIDGING THEN BUILDS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD. THUS SKIES SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY CLR/SUNNY UNDER LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS TO REMAIN WITHIN 2-3 DEG OF SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CENTERED OVER OHIO AND MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE COAST OF NYC AND MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE CWA FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MEANDERS TO THE NORTHEAST AND FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIGHT SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION. HAVE WENT WITH GRIDDED MOS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. ALSO...ECMWF AND GFS HAVE STARTED TO COME MORE IN LINE SO LESS DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT. HAVE HUNG ON TO PREVIOUS FORECASTERS MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS MIXING WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS COLD POOL ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW MIXING IN ABOVE 1500 FT. MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE AND PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER VALLEYS AND UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO BE MONDAY DURING THE DAY WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NYC AND BEST MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS THE FA AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND EXPECT HIGH SCT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU 18Z FRIDAY. LOWER FEW CLOUDS AFFECTING THE AREA NOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z ACROSS THE FA. AFTER 00Z WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SKIES WILL REMAIN SCT WITH HIGH CLOUDS. 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS TAKING THE SYSTEM FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WELL SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITE. WL PROBABLY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. NEXT POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS WL BE BY 12Z MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRES AND WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JAN AVIATION...JAN/TABER ----------------------------------------------------------------------
