ACUS11 KWNS 141805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141804
NEZ000-SDZ000-MNZ000-142100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181 FOR NERN NEB/SE SD/SW MN
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW...

SNOW RATES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW
RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR APPEAR LIKELY.

TIGHTENING MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF MOSTLY MODERATE SNOW...FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR MASS
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IS RELATIVELY LOW...AND THIS HAS TENDED TO
MINIMIZE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL.
HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF JET NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS ENHANCING SNOW
RATES IN AREA JUST AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY
CENTER...WHICH IS REDEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 20 KT.  UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION FIELD AND AREA OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SUPPORTING SOME CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES...WILL
PROGRESS INTO/ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
BETWEEN 14/20Z AND 15/00Z.  AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW APPEARS LIKELY
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF MITCHELL SD INTO THE REDWOOD FALLS AREA.

..KERR.. 03/14/02