FOUS30 KWBC 111830
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NWS...CAMP SPRINGS MD
158 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2000
PRIOR TO SEP 13/0000 UTC
HVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SRN WI AND NRN IL.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE BAND OF CONVECTION THAT IS TAKING ON AN E-W
ORIENTATION ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL INTO ERN IA FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT
6 TO 9 HRS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SET UP VICINITY OF THE WI/IL
BORDER...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG IT. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THERE ARE NEW CELLS STARTING TO FORM
UPSTREAM OVER ERN IA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THERE IS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. CURRENT CONVECTION
WILL PROBABLY NOT SHIFT EWD UNTIL THIS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO FORCE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EWD PAST THE CURRENT CONVECTION.
GOES SOUNDER DATA SHOWS THAT PWS SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ARE IN THE 1.60 TO 1.70 INCH RANGE. THE SOUNDER DATA ALSO INDICATES
THAT THE AIRMASS TO THE WEST ACROSS IL IS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE.
ALL THE ABOVE ARGUE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL
BEFORE THE SYSTEM STARTS SHIFTING EWD.
[...]
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