Previous cases of similar airborne Copper River plumes have been documented on this blog: Oct 2014 | Nov 2013 | Oct 2012.]]>
The orbital geometry of Suomi NPP is such that regions north of about 43º N latitude can occasionally receive NUCAPS (NOAA-Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System) Vertical Profiles of moisture and temperature on sequential orbital passes, meaning a given location could have vertical profiles separated by less than 2 hours. This occurred early on 20 October 2016 over Maine and Cape Cod, as shown above: Suomi NPP NUCAPS Vertical Profile locations are indicated over Day/Night Band Visible imagery. Two soundings at approximately the same location are circled in cyan in this small image and are shown below. There are two sequential profiles over Cape Cod, and then the two sequential profiles north of Maine. The atmosphere over Cape Cod was quiescent on this date, and little change between soundings is evident. In contrast, slight cold air advection was occurring north of Maine (Surface analysis from 0900 UTC, 500-mb analysis from 00 UTC), and the NUCAPS Sounding shows mid-level cooling.
For stations in the northern Plains, or in Canada, sequential soundings overnight or perhaps more importantly in the mid-afternoon (Suomi NPP typically overflies the Plains a bit after Noon local time) could give important information about destabilization.
Previous CIMSS Satellite Blog Entries referencing NUCAPS Vertical Profiles are available here.
Daily precipitation from the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Center from 13-15 October is shown here, with a weekly total shown below. A large area of precipitation exceeding 6 inches is apparent in the higher terrain.
The precipitation amounts were aided by the very moist airmass that accompanied the storms. Total Precipitable Water, shown below, from this site that manipulates data from here, shows the moisture. A larger-scale view that traces the moisture back to the time when Songda first reached typhoon intensity over the West Pacific is available here.The strong storm before the one spawned by the remnants of Songda produced an EF2-rated tornado in Manzanita Oregon (YouTube Compilation; SPC Storm Reports; Blog post with damage picture) on 14 October 2016. GOES-15 Visible Imagery, below, shows a storm with overshooting tops moving over northwestern Oregon at the time of the tornado. (GOES-15 was performing a full-disk scan from 15:00-15:26 UTC, so 15-imagery was not available as the tornado moved ashore; the Advanced Baseline Imager on GOES-R will produce CONUS Imagery every 5 minutes in addition to Full-Disk Imagery every 15 minutes). The overshoots are especially apparent in the 1500 and 1530 UTC Images. GOES-13 provided a visible image at about the time of the tornado touchdown, but at a very oblique angle. The cirrus shield of the thunderstorm anvil is apparent, however. GOES-15 Infrared Window (10.7 µm) imagery around the time of the severe weather in Oregon, below — which includes locations of SPC storm reports of tornadoes (red) and damaging winds (cyan) — also showed evidence of cold overshooting tops (the coldest clouds tops were around -50º C, yellow enhancement). An infrared image animation showing only the clouds is available here. NOAA-18 flew over the Oregon coast at 1427 UTC, and the AVHRR 12 µm Infrared image showed the parent thunderstorm offshore, upstream of Manzanita (larger-scale view). The Portland, Oregon NWS office issued 10 tornado warnings on 14 October — a record number for a single day.
We had never issued more than 3 tornado warnings in one day (Oct ’98) (1986-2015) We issued 10 today. #pdxtst
— NWS Portland (@NWSPortland) October 14, 2016
GOES Sounder data can be used to created Derived Product Imagery (DPI) estimates of instability parameters (for example), and many are shown at this site. The GOES-13 Sounder has been offline for about a year after having suffered an anomaly back in November 2015, when the filter wheel became frozen, but the GOES-15 Sounder (and the GOES-14 Sounder) continue to operate. The animation below of GOES-15 Sounder Lifted Index shows values as low as -4ºC upstream of the Oregon Coast for many hours before the tornado; as such, it was a valuable situational awareness tool.
NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere is a probabilistic estimate that a given thunderstorm will produce severe weather in the next 60 minutes. The animation below shows ProbSevere polygons overlain over radar from 1501 UTC (when the first ProbSevere polygon appeared around the radar cell that ultimately was tornadic) through 1521 UTC. Values from the ProbSevere output are below:
|1501||11%||1048||39.3||0.00||str||str||0 fl/min||Satellite from 1245/1241|
|1503||32%||1056||39.7||0.37||str||str||0 fl/min||Satellite from 1245/1241|
|1505||32%||1031||39.4||0.37||str||str||0 fl/min||Satellite from 1245/1241|
|1507||29%||1013||38.7||0.37||str||str||3 fl/min||Satellite from 1245/1241|
|1509||47%||974||37.9||0.62||str||str||3 fl/min||Satellite from 1245/1241|
|1511||47%||962||37.6||0.62||str||str||3 fl/min||Satellite from 1245/1241|
|1513||32%||745||33.1||0.52||str||str||10 fl/min||Satellite from 1245/1241|
|1515||34%||897||35.9||0.52||str||str||1 fl/min||Satellite from 1245/1241|
The Sounder also has a 9.6 µm “ozone absorption band”, and another example of GOES Sounder DPI is Total Column Ozone, shown below. Immediately evident is the sharp gradient in ozone (yellow to green color enhancement) located just north of the polar jet axis that was rounding the base of a large upper-level low (500 hPa analyses). The GOES-R ABI instrument also has a 9.6 µm band that is sensitive to ozone; however, there are no current plans to produce operationally a similar Total Column Ozone product.
Suomi NPP overflew the Pacific Northwest about 4 hours before the severe weather was observed at Manzanita. The Day/Night Visible Image above, courtesy of Jorel Torres at CIRA (Jorel also supplied the NUCAPS Sounding Imagery below), shows a well-developed storm offshore with thunderstorms off the West Coast of the United States (Click here for an image without the Green Arrow). Multiple overshooting tops can be discerned in the imagery.
NUCAPS Soundings are produced from the Cross-Track Infrared Sounder (CrIS, with 1300+ channels of information) and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS, with 22 channels) that are present on Suomi NPP (in addition to the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument that provides the Day/Night band imagery). The image below shows the location of NUCAPS Soundings — the color coding of the points is such that Green points have passed Quality Control, whereas yellow points denote sounding for which the Infrared Sounding retrieval has failed to converge and Red points denote soundings for which both Infrared and Microwave sounding retrievals have failed to converge).
NUCAPS Soundings can give valuable information at times other than those associated with radiosonde launches (0000 and 1200 UTC, typically), and over a broad region. The point highlighted above, between the occluded storm and the coast, shows very steep mid-level lapse rates that suggest convective development is likely.]]>
Matthew set numerous records for intensity, longevity, and landfall (summary) — an animation of hourly GOES-13 Water Vapor (6.5 µm) images covering the 11-day period from 12 UTC on 28 September to 12 UTC on 09 October is shown below (also available as a large 113 Mbyte animated GIF). The CIMSS Tropical Cyclones site posted GOES-13 Visible (0.63 µm) animations from the individual days of 03 October, 04 October, 05 October, 06 October, 07 October, and 08 October.The combination of high winds and flooding led to widespread power outages, with over 2 million homes and businesses without power. A comparison of nighttime Suomi NPP VIIRS Day/Night Band (0.7 µm) images from 28 September (before Mattthew arrived) and 09/10 October (after the passage of Matthew) showed a notable reduction in the glow of city lights in areas with no power (below; images courtesy of William Straka, SSEC). Note that the presence of patchy clouds on all 3 images tended to diffuse or even obscure the appearance of city lights below, depending on the thickness of the cloud layer(s). As clouds cleared in the wake of Hurricane Matthew on 09 October, a Suomi NPP VIIRS true-color Red/Green/Blue (RGB) image at 1859 UTC, viewed using RealEarth (below), revealed patterns of turbidity in the offshore waters of the Atlantic Ocean from Florida to North Carolina; this increased turbidity was a result of high amounts of particles suspended in the water due to a combination of mixing from prolonged high winds and runoff from inland flooding. About 8 hours later, a Terra MODIS Sea Surface Temperature (SST) product image at 0243 UTC on 10 October (below) showed a large eddy of warm Gulf Stream water (with a maximum SST value of 85.2º F, darker red color enhancement) surrounding a pocket of cooler water (with a minimum SST value of 78.5º F, darker blue color enhancement) off the coast of South Carolina. The VIIRS Instrument on Suomi NPP provides data that are used in a River Flood Product (discussed previously on this blog). The product uses three reflective bands (I01, I02, and I03 at 0.64 µm, 0.86 µm and 1.61 µm, respectively) and the infrared window band I05 at 11.45 µm. The image below (courtesy of Sanmei Li at George Mason University) identifies many flooded regions over North Carolina. In particular, the flooding near Goldsboro and Lumberton is identified.
A sequence of 1 pre-Matthew (06 September) and 3 post-Matthew (09, 10 and 12 October) Terra/Aqua MODIS false-color RGB images from the SSEC MODIS Today site (below) also helped to highlight areas of flooding (darker shades of blue, especially notable along river valleys) that resulted from the heavy rainfall.]]>
Hurricane Matthew is on a path that parallels the coast of Florida, with the center remaining just offshore. GOES-13 Visible imagery from a 1-hour time period this morning, above, shows the continued development of convection around the eyewall and the motion of convective bands inland. GOES-13 Visible images with hourly surface winds and wind gusts (in knots) are shown below. The highest wind gust recorded along the central Florida coast was 107 mph (NWS Melbourne PNS).A 24-hour animation of morphed Microwave imagery (from this site), below, suggests that an eyewall replacement cycle has completed: the very small eye present at storm’s center at the start of the animation has been replaced by a larger-diameter eye at the end of the animation. Storm strength typically drops during eyewall replacements. Note also that the microwave data shows that the strongest convection remained offshore.
Infrared imagery from GOES-13, below, also shows the coldest cloud tops to the east of the eye (indicated by the arrow in the image).
A longer animation of GOES-13 Infrared Window (10.7 um) images with hourly surface winds and wind gusts (in knots) is shown below (MP4 | animated GIF).A toggle between Suomi NPP VIIRS Visible (0.64 um) and Infrared Window (11.45 um) images at 1751 UTC is shown below; Matthew was a Category 3 hurricane at that time. ]]>
Hurricane Matthew moved through the Bahamas overnight, slowly organizing and strengthening to Category 4 intensity after its interaction with the high terrain of the Greater Antilles (Note that Day/Night Band Imagery from overnight on 6 October — from this Blog Post — shows that city lights are back on in Port-au-Prince Haiti as recovery proceeds in that country). The three images above show the evolution of the storm from 0345 UTC to 1145 UTC on 6 October. A warm eye is present, but it is not a cloud-free eye.
The GOES-13 satellite continued to be in Rapid Scan Operations (RSO) mode, providing images as frequently as every 5-7 minutes. An animation of Infrared Window (10.7 µm) imagery is shown below (MP4 | animated GIF). Nassau, Bahamas (station identifier MYNN) experienced a wind gust of 74 knots at 13 UTC.A higher-resolution view of the eye was provided by a Suomi NPP VIIRS Infrared Window (11.45 µm) image at 0645 UTC, below. GOES-13 Visible Imagery from early in the morning on 6 October, below (MP4 | animated GIF), confirms the diagnosis of a cloudy eye. The center of the storm is moving northwestward between Andros Island to the west and New Providence Island to the east (Nassau, the capitol of the Bahamas, is on New Providence Island).
Matthew is forecast to reach the coast of Florida within 24 hours. For the latest information, consult the website of the National Hurricane Center. Additional information is available here.]]>
The animation of Matthew, above, from morphed microwave imagery (from this site), shows the toll that interaction with the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba has had on the storm (causing it to be downgraded from Category 4 to Category 3 intensity). The formerly distinct eye had eroded, although eye re-formation occurs at the end of the animation. Once again, a comparison of microwave vs infrared imagery revealed that the well-defined eye structure was much more apparent using microwave data. Strengthening/Re-organization of Matthew in the near term will be governed by Sea Surface Temperatures (that are warm) and wind shear (shown below, from this site, that is weak).
Total Precipitable Water fields (from this site, using data from here), below, show abundant moisture surrounding Matthew at its present position. There is dry air over the eastern United States landmass, however.
During the morning and afternoon hours, the satellite presentation of Matthew began to slowly improve on GOES-13 Visible (0.63 µm) and Infrared Window (10.7 µm) imagery, below (MP4 | animated GIF), with well-defined convective bursts seen later in the day. Note: the noise seen on the 1645 UTC images was due to solar RFI.]]>
Hurricane Matthew has made landfall in western Haiti. The rocking animation (click here for a straight animation) above shows the cloud-filled eye of the storm crossing the Tiburon Peninsula. The storm’s center is forecast to remain largely over water as it moves through the Windward Passage between Cuba and Hispaniola.
A closer look using a 2-panel comparison of GOES-13 Visible (0.63 µm) and Infrared Window (10.7 µm) images, below, shows the deteriorating satellite presentation following interaction with the topography of the islands. The GOES-13 satellite was in Rapid Scan Operations (RSO) mode, providing images as frequently as every 5-7 minutes.NOAA-18 overflew the region around 1130 UTC while the eye was on land, and the toggle below shows Visible (0.64 µm) and Infrared Window Channel (10.8 µm) imagery from 1130 UTC. The cloud-filled eye is distinct in the infrared image at that time, but a sequence of POES AVHRR Infrared (12.0 µm) images showed the rapid deterioration shortly after landfall (as was seen in the GOES-13 images above).
A toggle between 1215 UTC GOES-13 Infrared Window (10.7 µm) and 1217 UTC DMSP-18 SSMIS Microwave (85 GHz) images from the CIMSS Tropical Cyclones site, below, revealed that a well-defined eye was still evident in the microwave data.
Aqua overflew Matthew shortly after 1800 UTC on 4 October, and the toggle below shows the 1-km visible (0.65 µm) and the 1-km ‘Cirrus Channel’ (1.38 µm). The Cirrus Channel detects radiation at a wavelength where very strong absorption by water vapor is occurring; only high clouds are detected with this channel, and the toggle between the Cirrus Channel and the Visible nicely outlines the cirrus canopy of the storm. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on GOES-R also includes a Cirrus Channel.
Meanwhile, to the northeast of Matthew, in the tropical Atlantic, Tropical Storm Nicole has formed. The animation of visible imagery from GOES-13, below, shows a sheared storm; the low-level circulation is west of the deepest convection. It’s unlikely that Nicole will intensify much under such sheared conditions. Cirrus outflow from Matthew is evident at the south and west of Nicole.ASCAT on METOP-A sampled both storms in its morning overpass over the western Atlantic, as shown below. The maximum scatterometer-derived wind speeds were 60 knots with Matthew and 40 knots for Julia. Late in the day on 04 October, Category 4 Hurricane Mathew made a second landfall along the far eastern tip of Cuba. As seen in the image toggle below, in spite of a ragged appearance on GOES-13 Infrared Window (10.7 µm) imagery, a distinct eye was still seen using DMSP-18 SSMIS Microwave (85 GHz) data. ]]>
The Day/Night Band is a component of the VIIRS Instrument on board Suomi NPP, and it allows for satellite views in the visible portion of the electromagnetic spectrum at night. The nighttime light source is the Moon (if it is above the horizon), or airglow if not (or if the Moon is new). When Suomi NPP overflew Matthew early in the morning on 1 and 2 October, shortly after the New Moon (on 30 September), only airglow was illuminating the storm. Those images are shown above (for 1 October 2016) and below (for 2 October 2016). This imagery was produced using Polar2Grid software that is part of the CSPP Package using data received at a direct broadcast site (in this case, Miami).
There are striking mesospheric airglow gravity waves evident to the east and north of the center on 1 October, at which time Matthew was a Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, having undergone remarkable intensification during the previous 24 hours. On October 2, the gravity waves are not quite so apparent (at this time, the storm was a Category 4 storm). Are the gravity waves a response to the strong intensification?
Lightning streaks are present to the east of the center, within the cluster of deep convection east of Matthew, in both images. City lights on the islands of the Greater Antilles, and over the South American landmass, are also apparent. Haiti is notable for its minimal signature of city lights.
Matthew is forecast to affect Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Haiti on Monday and Tuesday, 3 and 4 October. Consult the website of the National Hurricane Center for more information.
Day/Night Band imagery will be available from JPSS-1, scheduled for launch no earlier than March 2017. After its launch, both Suomi NPP and JPSS-1 will provide Day/Night Band imagery. JPSS-2, -3 and -4 (scheduled for launch in 2021, 2026 and 2031, respectively), will also have a Day/Night Band capability. There are currently no plans for a geostationary Day/Night Band capability (In particular, GOES-R does not have a Day/Night Band).
Shown below is the same VIIRS Day/Night Band image, as viewed using AWIPS II with data received by the Puerto Rico ground station.
At 0633 UTC on 7 October, Matthew was located east of the Atlantic coast of Florida. Lightning streaks are apparent well to the east of the center. This Day/Night Band image centered over Haiti shows that electricity has been restored to most of the island.]]>