The animation below (YouTube 1080p HD version; also available as an MP4 movie file) is centered a bit farther north, to cover storms that developed in Oklahoma. The enhancement is also tailored to help highlight the thunderstorm overshooting tops and storm-top gravity wave features.
With the arrival of daylight at 1215 UTC, a portion of the volcanic cloud could be seen at times (although identification was difficult with widespread meteorological clouds present in the area).
An Aqua MODIS false-color Red/Gren/Blue (RGB) image at 0800 UTC (below; courtesy of Michael Pavolonis, NOAA/NESDIS/CIMSS) displayed a signal of SO2 (green enhancement) along the edges of the larger volcanic cloud as it was moving southward.
GOES-13 10.7 µm IR channel images (below; click to play animation; also available as an MP4 movie file) indicated that the coldest cloud-top IR brightness temperature of -65º C appeared at 1015 UTC with the larger plume moving south-southwestward.According to the nearby San Cristobal rawinsonde report at 12 UTC, the altitude of the -65º C temperature was around 14 km, at the 157 hPa pressure level. The tropopause for this sounding was coded to be at 16.1 km or 109.0 hPa, where the air temperature was -80.7º C.
The latest advisories issued by the Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center can be found here.]]>
GOES-14 remained in Super Rapid Scan Operations for GOES-R (SRSO-R) demonstration mode on 21 May 2015, providing 1-minute images for much of the eastern US (see this blog post) — and another interesting feature was seen over eastern Tennessee that was rather perplexing. Since this easily qualified for the “What the heck is this?” blog category, we thought it might be fun to have a contest of sorts and invite readers to submit their wild guesses and/or educated explanations. We will post more imagery later in the day on 22 May as to our explanation — but in the meantime, leave a comment on the blog (comments are moderated, so they will not appear until approved), or send your thoughts to our Twitter account.
—– 22 May Update —–
Thanks to all who submitted their suggestions here and on Twitter of an explanation of the “What the heck is this” feature; Here is our best guess:The first step in trying to understand what might be causing this interesting feature was to examine 4-panel images showing imagery from other GOES channels (or spectral bands): in this case, the 3.9 µm “shortwave IR” channel, the 6.5 µm “water vapor” channel, and the 10.7 µm “IR window channel” (above; click image to play animation). The 3.9 µm IR brightness temperatures of cloud features were in the +20 to +25º range, while the 10.7 µm IR brightness temperatures were in the +3 to +5º C range — the significantly warmer shortwave IR temperatures indicates that the clouds were comprised of liquid or supercooled cloud droplets. Otherwise, no significant clues were seen on the IR (or the water vapor) images.
However, the METAR surface reports offer an important clue: a rain shower moved from southwest to northeast through the region during the preceding overnight hours with the passage of a weak low pressure system (surface analyses), with Knoxville (station identifier KTYS) receiving 0.23″ and Oak Ridge (KOQT) receiving 0.10″ of rainfall (radar-estimated 24-hour precipitation). Therefore, one plausible explanation of the feature seen on visible imagery is that it was a shallow pool of stable, rain-cooled air near the surface that was spreading out and flowing downslope (westward) into the Great Valley of East Tennessee during the morning and early afternoon hours.
While the outer edges of this rain-cooled stable air feature remained generally cloud-free, the inner core exhibited a good deal of cloud development (including what appeared to be a more dense northwest-to-southeast oriented cloud band through the middle). An overlay of hourly RTMA surface winds (below; click image to play animation) indicated that there was convergence within the feature (to the lee of higher terrain within the Cumberland Plateau), which along with daytime heating of the moist soil would have helped to promote such shallow cloud development.For clouds within expanding the rain-cooled boundary at 1534 UTC, the CLAVR-x POES AVHRR Cloud Type was liquid, with Cloud Top Height values of 1-3 km and Cloud Top Temperature values of +2 to +10º C (below). ]]>
GOES-14 0.62 µm visible imagery, above, (here as an mp4, and here as a very large (220+ megabytes) animated gif) shows the development of convection over eastern North Carolina in a region of slight risk according to SPC (below).
Mesoscale Discussion #713 from SPC, below, referenced the Super-Rapid scan imagery:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015
AREAS AFFECTED…E-CNTRL AND ERN NC / SC GRAND STRAND
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211611Z – 211745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…60 PERCENT
SUMMARY…SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND A WATCH
WILL STRONGLY BE CONSIDERED.
DISCUSSION…SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW 30 MI W
SOP WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SC PIEDMONT. A PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE/SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE GRAND STRAND VICINITY.
OBSERVATIONS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOCATED WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR SHOW TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 DEG F WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
SUPER RAPIDSCAN VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING TCU FIELD
IMMEDIATELY E OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH/CONFLUENCE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING IMPLIES A WEAK LEAD
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL NC AHEAD OF THE MID MS VALLEY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATER
TODAY. IT SEEMS THE WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE
LEAD IMPULSE COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC HEATING WILL ERODE THE
CAP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE IS PROBABLE
BY THE 18-19Z TIMEFRAME.
VEERING AND A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL
SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION ONCE A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS BECOME
ESTABLISHED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODERATE BUOYANCY AS OF 16Z
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THIS SHOULD FAVOR STORM INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ONCE INITIATION COMMENCES. ISOLD LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. DESPITE TEMPERED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR…A TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A
SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP AND FAVORABLY TRACK ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
LAT…LON 35267979 36097844 36297643 35847549 34977597 33737851
33897960 34497991 35267979
The GOES-13 Sounder captured some of the destabilization that occurred ahead of the developing line of convection. Values less than -5 are widespread over southeastern North Carolina at 1600 UTC, after which time cirrus blowoff obscured the satellite view.Suomi NPP’s orbits on 21 May allowed successive views of the developing convection, once at 1725 UTC and once near 1905 UTC. The convection developed near the edge of the swath in both images, however, so NUCAPS soundings did not view the environment closest to the storms. Infrared imagery, below, shows the quick evolution of convection. VIIRS visible (0.64 µm) and near-infrared (1.61 µm) imagery, below, shows that the developing storms glaciated quickly; the 1.61 µm imagery over the convection shows the darker grey values characteristic of regions where ice crystals are strongly absorbing radiation. Water-based clouds — over Kentucky, for example — appear as bright white in both channels. ]]>
GOES-14, in SRSO-R mode, animation, above (YouTube video), captured the development of an isolated cell over northeastern Andrews County in west Texas. Intersecting boundaries helped force the isolated convection, above, that was strong enough to produce a signal in the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere product, with ProbSevere peaking at around 15%.]]>
One interesting feature seen on the visible channel images above was the apparent merger of the large dominant dryline storm and a smaller northward-moving storm that had formed in Mexico (radar animation). In GOES-13 10.7 µm IR imagery with an overlay of SPC storm reports (below; click image to play animation), one report of 2.0-inch diameter hail was seen around or shortly after the time of the storm merger.
With higher spatial resolution IR imagery from MODIS (1-km), VIIRS (375-meter), and AVHRR (1-km), much colder cloud-top IR brightness temperatures were seen (below) compared to the corresponding 4-km resolution GOES IR imagery at those times — especially during the early formative stages of the thunderstorms captured with MODIS and VIIRS. The coldest cloud-top IR brightness temperature on the 2128 UTC AVHHRR image was -80º C, compared to -67º C on the 2130 UTC GOES image.
A more detailed discussion of this event can be found on the RAMMB GOES-R Proving Ground Blog.]]>
GOES-R is scheduled to launch in March 2016. It will have the capability to provide routine 1-minute imagery over mesoscale-sized domains such as those sampled in the next three weeks by GOES-14. Real-time GOES-14 SRSO imagery is available through the SSEC RealEarth web map server and the GOES-14 SRSOR Imagery site.
Rapid Scan Operations allow the eye to distinguish between upper- and lower-level clouds that typically move at different speeds or in different directions. In the animation below (similar mp4 available here), high clouds over western Pennsylvania are moving over dissipating river fog in the central part of the state. Upper level clouds over southern New York are moving southward; low clouds are moving westward behind a back-door cold front: winds at White Plains, Newark, Trenton (and other stations) have all switched to easterly.Another feature of interest was a thin layer of lake fog that was streaming northward across Lake Michigan during the morning hours, as seen in the animation below (also available as an mp4 movie file). Note the appearance of an undular bore propagating southeastward through the northern portion of the fog at the end of the animation; this may have been caused by an internal reflection of the strong southerly flow impinging upon the rugged southern coastline of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. According to buoy data and the Terra MODIS Sea Surface Temperature product, Lake Michigan waters were still in the upper 30s to low 40s F — it was the pre-cold-frontal southerly flow of much warmer air with dew point values in the 50s and 60s F that led to the formation of the lake fog. Rounds of deep convection persisted over parts of the Gulf Coast states during the day, which can be seen in the sunrise-to-sunset animation of GOES-14 visible images below (also available as an MP4 movie file). In Louisiana, some of these storms produced heavy rainfall and flash flooding, with a few water rescues necessary. ]]>
Note that there were no parallel cloud rolls present on the corresponding GOES-15/14/13 0.63 µm visible channel imagery (below) — so this gravity wave bore feature was forming in clear air.
A comparison of 12 UTC El Paso, Texas (yellow) and Midland, Texas (cyan) rawinsonde data (below) showed the differences in vertical moisture profile to the west and to the east of the bore feature — especially in the 500-600 hPa layer, where a good deal of the signal contributing to the overall water vapor brightness temperature was originating from.]]>
Himawari-8 infrared imagery (above, at 2.5-minute time steps and available here as an mp4) shows the development of an eye in Typhoon Dolphin shortly after 1400 UTC when the storm was northwest of Guam. With the subsequent arrival of daylight, mesovortices were clearly seen within the eye on 2.5-minute interval rapid scan visible images (animated gif | mp4 movie file).
About 2 hours prior to eye formation, a Metop satellite overpass allowed the ASCAT instrument to provide surface scatterometer winds of Typhoon Dolphin, overlaid on a MIMIC Total Precipitable Water (TPW) image (below; TPW animation). The maximum TPW values were in the 60-65 mm or 2.4-2.6 inch range, and the highest ASCAT wind value was 68 knots in the eastern eyewall region of the storm.
During the preceding daylight hours as Category 2 intensity Typhoon Dolphin was approaching Guam, rapid-scan (2.5-minute interval) 0.5-km resolution Himawari-8 0.64 µm visible channel images (below; click image to play animation; also available as an mp4 movie file) revealed a number of large convective bursts — but no eye was yet apparent. As the center of Dolphin passed between the islands of Guam and Rota, the peak wind gust was 70 knots at Agana, Guam (PGUM) and 92 knots at Anderson Air Force Base, Guam (PGUA).]]>
The animation above (available here as an mp4, and here on YouTube) shows 11.22 µm infrared imagery at 2.5-minute time steps (bottom) and 10-minute time steps (top) from Himawari-8 on 14 May 2015. Category 2 intensity Typhoon Dolphin is approaching Guam, seen at the left edge of both panels in the frame. The 2.5-minute imagery gives a much better indication of the quick rise and decay of overshooting tops (IR brightness temperatures of the storm tops approach -95º C!). A 10-minute time step cannot fully resolve the evolution of these features. The 2.5-minute time step also better captures the divergent flow (and outward-propagating gravity waves) at the top of the central dense overcast. No eye was yet apparent in the infrared imagery, or on DMSP SSMI 85 GHz microwave imagery.
A similar animation from the previous day, 13 May, is shown here: gif, mp4, YouTube. The better organization of the storm on 14 May is readily apparent.
How high are the clouds in the Central Dense Overcast (CDO)? Cloud Heights are available from CLAVR-x (Clouds from AVHRR Extended). Data from Geostationary Satellites are processed and are available to download here. Values from COMS-1 and from MTSAT-2 (displayed with McIDAS-V) suggest maximum cloud heights near 55,500 feet.
The MIMIC Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product, below, showed that Typhoon Dolphin was able to tap rich moisture from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during the 13-14 May period; TPW values within the tropical cyclone circulation were often in the 60-65 mm or 2.5-2.6 inch range (darker red color enhancement).
Visible Imagery from Himawari-8, just after sunrise on 15 May, show continuous development of short-lived overshooting tops to the east of Guam. More information on the storm is available at the CIMSS Tropical Cyclones site, the JMA Tropical Cyclone site and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.]]>