Archive for the ‘Tropical cyclones’ Category

Hurricane Rick at Category Five Intensity

Monday, October 19th, 2009

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Rick, shown above near peak intensity at sunset on 17 October 2009, is the second strongest hurricanes on record in the eastern Pacific — weaker only than 1997’s Linda. Sustained winds at this time were estimated to be 180 miles per hour, and the central sea level pressure was estimated to be 906 mb. Note in the visible imagery the presence of gravity waves in the cirrus shield that makes up the central dense overcast (CDO). In addition, as noted in the Tropical Prediction Center discussion issued near this time, the stadium effect in the Hurricane eye is readily apparent.

Rick formed out of a tropical disturbance southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (a loop of 3-hourly water vapor imagery here, and a loop of 6-hourly 11-micron imagery here show an interesting flare-up of convection in the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the days before Rick formed. It is worth pondering how that convection influenced Rick’s early and rapid growth). The evolution from strong tropical depression (here, at 2100 UTC on 15 October) to minimal hurricane (here, at 1500 UTC on 16 October) to category 4 hurricane (here, at 1500 UTC on 17 October to category 5 hurricane, above, was rapid indeed and speaks to the ideal environment through which the disturbance traveled. Consider the image below from the CIMSS Tropical Weather Website.

MPI

The image shows that the theoretical minimum to the central pressure in the region through which the system traveled was below 880 mb! (This value is a function of sea surface temperature, and of atmospheric thermodynamic profiles as described here. Note that Rick was moving across ocean waters with surface temperatures close to 30 C as it intensified rapidly. Wind shear as the storm rapidly intensified time was also very low (as diagnosed by Satellite winds). Very warm ocean waters and low vertical wind shear are key ingredients in allowing the strengthening of tropical systems.

The ideal environment resulted in a category 5 storm with a very tall circular ring of convection around the eye. The GOES-11 10.7-micron image, below, shows temperatures of nearly -80 C (the purple pixels within the grey) in the tallest convection around the eye.

RICKIR

(Added: Note in the water vapor and infrared imagery loops, above, the presence of what looks to be a binocular-shaped eye. This is an artifact of the interpolation used to blend GOES-12 and GOES-11 imagery to combine one cohesive picture. In individual images from either satellite, only a single eye is present).

RICK_NOAA19_CH4

Polar orbiting satellites, such as NOAA-19, give high-resolution images of the storm. The 10.8-micron example above, from 2020 UTC on 17 October, as the storm neared its peak intensity, shows pixels northwest of the storm center (this NOAA-19 pass is ascending, so north is towards the bottom of the image) with brightness temperatures of -84 C. Note also the more circular aspect ratio that comes from the polar-orbiter’s more top-down view, versus the Geostationary satellite’s oblique view. Visible imagery, below, at 0.65 and 0.86 microns, from the NOAA-19 AVHRR instrument, show better storm structure as well.

RICK_NOAA19_CH1

RICK_NOAA19_CH2

MODIS imagery from the Terra and Aqua satellites can also be used to investigate the storm. Unfortunately for this storm, the Aqua overpass granule split was right across the storm eye (granules are created so that the vast amount of data created by the satellite are more easily transportable). Gluing the two images together does not re-capture all the missed points, but it does give a good representation of the storm intensity here. A later MODIS image from TERRA, below, from 1755 UTC on 18 October (that is, about a day after the image from Aqua), below, shows a somewhat cloudier, but still quite distinct, eye. At this point, Rick has passed its peak in intensity.

MODISRICK

(added: Jesse at Accu-Weather has other imagery of Rick here).

Tropical Storm Grace

Monday, October 5th, 2009
GRACE

GOES-12 visible image

Late on October 4th, the weather system in the far northeast Atlantic acquired sufficient tropical characteristics to be classified as a Tropical Storm, and Grace was named. The visible image from GOES-12 above shows the counterclockwise swirl of clouds. GOES-12 is over the Equator at 75 degrees W Longitude, and Tropical Storm Grace at the time of the image above was at 45 degrees North latitude and 16 degrees W Longitude; consequently, the view angle is very oblique. Indeed, the visible image shows a convective spiral band that lies beneath the cirrus shield that covers the system. Note that no overshooting tops penetrate the cirrus overcast over the tropical system. The system sits over sea surface temperatures near 70 degrees Fahrenheit (see the Sea Surface Temperature analysis here, and those temperatures are yielding insufficient CAPEs to produce overshooting tops.

Grace developed underneath a decaying upper-level low. The low was able to draw north modestly high values of precipitable water, as shown in the MIMIC analysis here. Grace is associated with the very small region of enhanced precipitable water that is at 40 N, 20 W at the start of the loop, then moving northeastward towards Ireland.

A comparison of Terra MODIS visible and 11.0 µm IR images (below) showed that Grace exhibited a fairly well-defined banded structure and some semblance of an eye at 11:40 UTC.

MODIS visible and IR images

MODIS visible and IR images

(Added: Jesse Ferrell at AccuWeather notes that Grace was almost the farthest-east forming tropical system on record! Link).

(Added, 6 October: Grace merged with/was absorbed by a front southwest of Ireland late in the day on the 5th.) AMSU microwave data from early on the day on the 5th clearly show a warm core to the system, one of the hallmarks of a tropical Storm. For example, data from the AMSU-A instrument in NOAA-18 at 0413 UTC on 5 October show a region of warmth at 550 hPa (Channel 5), at 350 hPa (Channel 6) and at 200 hPa (Channel 7); the 89-GHz channel on AMSU-B also shows warmth at the center of the storm. These warm signals were critical in determining that system was tropical in nature. The warmth persisted; AMSU-A data from NOAA-19 at 1406 UTC on the 5th also showed a warm core at 550 hPa (Channel 5), at 350 hPa (Channel 6) and at 200 hPa (Channel 7), as well as in the 89-GHz channel on AMSU-B. (More imagery is available here).