PPT Slide
Trend and Expectancy Guidelines
Adjust amounts UPWARD if:
The trend of the last 3 half-hourly estimates is upward
The speed of the coldest tops is decreasing or if the tops are becoming quasi-stationary or building upwind
New convection is developing upwind of the coldest tops
Cluster/line mergers or intersections with a low level boundary are expected
Warm, moist low-level inflow becomes increasingly perpendicular to the direction of movement of the coldest tops (increasing surface moisture convergence)
If hourly surface data show low-level inflow increasing in dewpoint, precipitable water or increasing instability