Nowcasting Flash Floods and Heavy Precipitation --- A Satellite Perspective

2/9/00


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Table of Contents

Nowcasting Flash Floods and Heavy Precipitation --- A Satellite Perspective

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Satellite Pictures

Satellite Pictures

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Hydrologic Cycle

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Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF)

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Questions to ask when preparing Nowcasts and QPF “this involves”

Global to Synoptic Scale

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Synoptic to Mesoscale

Use of Water Vapor (6.7 mm) Imagery

6.7 mm Water Vapor Plumes

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Precipitation Efficiency Factors

Precipitation Efficiency Factors

Precipitation Efficiency Factors

Additional Precipitation Efficiency Factors

Use of Precipitable Water (PW) and Relative Humidity (RH) Data

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Precipitable Water Available

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) Channel most sensitive to Total Precipitable Water 22.235 GHz

GOES 8 Sounding Channels Sensitive to Precipitable Water (mm) (over land and water, cannot calculate when clouds are present) 14.37; 14.06; 13.96; 13.37; 12.66; 12:02; 11.03; 7.43; 7.02; 6.51; 4.57; 4.52; 4.13 Cloud Detection 3.74 and 0.94

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Precipitable Water X Relative Humidity

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Equivalent Potential Temperature Ridge Axis

Equivalent Potential Temperature Ridge Axis

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Short Waves (lifting mechanisms)

Short Waves (lifting mechanisms)

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Synoptic and Mesoscale Boundaries Characteristics in the conventional data: - wind - temperature - moisture - pressure Characteristic in the satellite data: - cloud line - moisture-dry air interface - wind

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Mesoscale to Storm scale

Interactive Flash Flood Analyzer (IFFA) Precipitation Estimates Assign precipitation rates to the following satellite features: - Cloud top temperature and cloud growth - Mergers - Overshooting tops - Stationary Storms (speed of movement) The amount of available moisture (determined by the current Precipitable Water and Relative Humidity) is used to adjust the rainfall estimates

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NOAA/NESDIS Automatic satellite rainfall estimation .. Auto-Estimator

Resource Requirements to “Run” Flash Flood Algorithms

GOES MultiSpectral Rainfall Algorithm (GMSRA)

GOES MultiSpectral Rainfall Algorithm (GMSRA)

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Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) (DMSP) and Advanced Microwave Sensing Unit (AMSU) (NOAA K) Precipitation Estimates Emission - Based

SSM/I and AMSU) Precipitation Estimates Scattering Based

Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) (DMSP) Channels Sensitive to Precipitation

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PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL (P) P = E x C V Where E = Precipitation Estimates C = Cross-section thru storm V = Speed of storm

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How much more rain ? How much longer ? Where is the rain going to move? ---------------------------------------------- The answer to these questions is: “How do you expect the convection to PROPAGATE”?

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Nowcasting Flash Floods “ Look for steady state conditions that will produce congruent paths of heavy rain cells “

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